Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

I wonder whether some extra pressure/sanctions can be imposed on Iran for keeping Russia supplied with drones and other equipment...

I don't think them pulling out of the talks is any surprise at all.

A brief record of some help getting to Kherson. Hankie-time. www.instagram.com/reel/ClfTNT8oe-4/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY%3D

No I agree, also not sure what benefit them being there would bring. They lie as easily as they breathe.

yeah, 90% of the time you can guess what they're going to do by believing the opposite of what they say.

Quite extraordinary really. I think they come up with all this stuff to try to convince themselves more than anyone else.

The Pentagon is in the process of approving a longer range weapon for Ukraine. I've seen mention of it a few times recently, but this article is the clearest I've found that describes it.

Pentagon declines 185-mile rockets for Ukraine, but 94-mile counteroffer could be just fine - Boeing proposed sending their new long-range high-precision rocket to Ukraine. This scary thing is known under the short name GLSDB

TL:DR, it's a gliding, precision-controlled bomb that's launched from an aircraft with a rocket motor to improve the range, which will depend on conditions but will be almost 100 miles in some cases. The article says they could be available next spring. I think that's a worst-case estimate.

The advantages are that the components are readily available and relatively cheap, which means that they could be widely used against lots of targets beyond the range of HIMARS.

Just to clarify, the GLSDB can be launched from a HIMARS or M270 with a 94 mile range. If fired from an aircraft, the range would be longer. The range is longer than with a standard HIMARS missile because the bomb separates from the rocket motor in flight and glides to the target. It has wings that pop out to allow this. Sorry for any confusion. This should help clarify:

GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb

Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB)

Boeing and Saab Group have modified the Small Diameter Bomb with a rocket motor to be launched from ground-based missile systems such as the M270 MLRS.[46] With the Army demilitarizing cluster munitions from M26 rockets, the company says a special adapter case could reuse the rocket to launch the SDB. After the motor launches it to a high enough altitude and speed, the wings will deploy and glide the bomb to its target. The company believes it can fill a gap for long-range precision fires while using its smaller warhead to save larger rocket munitions for strategic targets. While typical MLRS systems follow a ballistic trajectory, the rocket-launched SDB can be launched to altitude and glide on a selected trajectory.[47][48] Boeing and Saab Group conducted three successful GLSDB tests in February 2015. The system is cost-effective, utilizing an existing weapon paired with a stockpiled rocket motor, while maintaining the loadout on a rocket artillery system. Unlike other artillery weapons, the GLSDB offers 360-degree coverage for high and low angles of attack, flying around terrain to hit targets on the back of mountains, or circling back around to a target behind the launch vehicle. The GLSDB has a range of 93 mi (150 km), and can also hit targets 43 mi (70 km) behind it.[49][50][51] In a 2017 demonstration, the GLSDB engaged a moving target at a distance of 62 mi (100 km). The SDB and rocket motor separated at altitude and the bomb used an SAL seeker to track and engage the target.[52] A 2019 test extended this range to 81 mi (130 km) against a target at sea.[53]

It is also being considered for use in Ukraine with the HIMARS system. Ukraine has long wanted the ATACMS missiles for their long range. The GLSDB would be a compromise giving them a range of some 150 kilometres (94 miles) using a M26 rocket engine and a GBU-39. Both the SDB and the M26 are common in the US arsenal. It could be delivered by early 2023 using surplus bombs from the conflict in Afghanistan. Each would cost $40,000 USD. [54]

Yes.

A warning has been sent to Russia that supply chains from China might be effected by recent covid lockdowns.

That is partly a covid thing and partly a protest thing and partly growing awareness from China about towing the line with the US because of the war.

This is also liable to have an impact on supply chains elsewhere around the world as previous Chinese lockdowns.

But it looks like they are specifically affecting Russia in particular.

Worth keeping an eye on both for impact on Russia and uk/rest of the world. There are economic implications.

@MissConductUS thanks for the information on GLSDB. It sounds like science fiction (wings that pop out to glide!) and really quite an ingenious way to extend the range and accuracy of more standard munitions and hardware.

I do hope Ukraine gets them. It will be a game changer, like Himars. Crimea, here we come.

This is in stark contrast this with Russia's primitive adaptions: "Russian forces are likely using inert Kh-55 missiles designed solely to carry nuclear warheads in its campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, highlighting the Russian military’s depletion of high-precision weapons."

Washington Post Summary this evening:

• Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned his country to brace for more Russian airstrikes, as it reels from a barrage that has left civilian infrastructure in poor shape as winter approaches.

• Russia postponed nuclear treaty talks with the United States that were set to start Tuesday in Cairo, the State Department said on Monday.

• European diplomats will try to move forward with U.S.-backed plans to cap the price of Russian oil in a Monday meeting in Brussels, after talks last week stalled over what the price cap level should be.

• The electricity situation is “under control” across most of Ukraine, with only scheduled stabilization blackouts in effect, Zelensky said, after energy workers rallied to repair the damage from airstrikes on infrastructure last week.

• A large, high-level delegation of foreign ministers of Baltic and Nordic nations visited Kyiv on Monday to discuss support for Ukraine.

I thought this was a really good explanation of how cold weather impacts ground combat operations and how easy it is to die of hypothermia without the right equipment and procedures.

The Combatant Winter

Favourite interview ever was on Channel 4 News last night.

Soldier: I have superpower!
Journalist: What's your superpower?
Soldier: I'm Ukrainian.

😂

The deaths going up has caught my eye and I suspect its this rather than movement on the front line. Kyiv has had its first snow recently. Video footage of the mud conditions around Svatove say that Ukraine isn't going anywhere fast and screams hell on the front lines, particularly for the Russians.

Being back into the 600s is a lot. It's the thing to watch right now with the lack of movement.

Wonderful!

ISW Key Takeaways

The Russian-claimed capture of several small villages around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 does not portend an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.

Recent Russian force deployments to Belarus in November 2022 are likely part of a Russian effort to augment Russian training capacity and conduct an information operation.

Russian milbloggers widely criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) decision to place severe customs limits on the import of dual-use goods, indicating a continued and pervasive discontent with the Russian MoD’s conduct of the war in Ukraine. [The ISW says "the customs limits are reportedly intended to centralize and consolidate government control and oversight of the provision of dual-use goods"]

Russian forces are likely preparing to launch a new wave of missile strikes across Ukraine in the coming week, but such preparations are likely intended to sustain the recent pace of strikes rather than increase it.

Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations around Svatove as Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive west of Kreminna.

Russian forces made incremental gains south of Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued to strengthen fortified positions and establish security measures in eastern Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and along critical logistics lines in southern Ukraine.

Russian forces continue to face issues with adequate training and equipment and challenges with morale and discipline as Russian military failures have significant domestic social impacts.

Russian occupation authorities continued efforts to facilitate the integration of educational systems in occupied Ukraine into the Russian system.

++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Peskov denies Russian withdrawal from Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

⚡️European Council criminalizes evasion of sanctions.

⚡️Security Service says it found anti-Ukrainian propaganda in Moscow Patriarchate facilities.
Security Service (SBU) and National Police have conducted searches in the Pochaiv Theological Seminary in Ternopil Oblast and the Ivano-Frankivsk Eparchy of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate.

⚡️Foreign Minister: NATO to consider providing new military, energy aid to Ukraine.
“For the first time, the meeting will be equally dedicated to Ukraine’s defense issues, namely new weapons, ammunition, military equipment, and to the country’s energy system,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said, promising there would be “more solutions” from the allies

⚡️Defense Minister: 97% of Russian targets are civilian

⚡️US says Russia delays nuclear arms reduction talks.
The U.S. Department of State said that Russia had "unilaterally" postponed negotiations on the implementation of the New START treaty on the reduction of nuclear arms.

⚡️General Staff: Russian troops trying to advance in 3 directions in Donbas.
Russian forces are trying to advance in the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine's General Staff said.
Russia is on the defensive in four other directions — Kupiansk in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine, Zaporizhzhia in the southeast, and Kherson in the south, according to the General Staff.

⚡️Bloomberg: Price of Russian oil falls below proposed EU cap.

⚡️Zelensky: Russia attacked Kherson Oblast 258 times over past week. Civilians are fleeing.

⚡️ Media: Writer Volodymyr Vakulenko killed during Russian occupation.
Ukrainian children’s writer Volodymyr Vakulenko was allegedly killed during the Russian occupation of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, which was liberated in September, [such brave, noble soldiers, the Russians]

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine downs 1 Russian Su-25 fighter jet, 1 Su-24 aircraft over past day.

+++

UNITED24 Media

About 5,000 women are now directly involved in hostilities, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said. 101 have been killed.

⚡️Ukraine plans to return Crimea in 2023, reports The Economist
Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodsky told the publication that such an operation is indeed being prepared, but one must understand that it will be bloody and difficult.

Russian troops sent a large echelon of military equipment to Belarus. It brought at least 15 units of Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems and 10 units of engineering equipment

‼️ Russians are spreading a fake that the number of crimes in Ukraine allegedly increased due to power outages

Ukrainian roboticist became the winners of the international festival
Ukrainian team won first place at one of the most prestigious international festivals, Robotex International. 47 teams from 30 countries of the world took part in i

3 Traitors who tortured Ukrainians in the occupation "detention center" were detained in Kherson.

▪️In the city of Ladyzhyn in Vinnytsia region, a military emergency was declared due to an accident at the Ladyzhyn thermal power plant after a missile attack.

Russian losses not yet released.

EdithStourton · Today 08:37

^Fladdermus · Today 06:58
Favourite interview ever was on Channel 4 News last night.^

^Soldier: I have superpower!
Journalist: What's your superpower?
Soldier: I'm Ukrainian.^

😂
Wonderful!

I saw that too, he was wonderful. Goodness though, the conditions are grim with all the cold, mud and not enough sleep.

ReleaseTheDucks, I don’t know if you can get Channel 4? We also saw an inner, dry section of the dug-out, with rugs on the wall where the sleep when they can. The soldier showed us his very young cat who is also, he said, a soldier catching all the mice which run around there.

He also spoke of his hope to have a family with his girlfriend after the war - born in freedom.

I haven't seen that interview no. Sounds moving.

God, they have such strong wills and resilience.

Day 278, November 28th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast

🔥 Battlefield update:

🔥 Kherson:
No ground battles, only artillery duels in advantage to 🇺🇦. 🇷🇺 only hitting civilian areas, not 🇺🇦 equipment.

🔥 Zaporozhye:
🇷🇺 sources claiming 🇺🇦 got reinforcements near Vuhledar. 🇷🇺 not reporting any success, despite usually reporting even capturing part of tiny village.

🔥 Marinka-Bakhmut:
same offensive attempts by 🇷🇺. South-west from Horlivka quite intense for 🇺🇦. This is where 🇷🇺 has most forces concentrated, attempting to break through 2014 defenses.
🔥 Bakhmut-Soledar:
varying attacks from both sides. 🇷🇺 reports of city battles are false.
🔥 Bilohorivka-Kreminna-Svatove:
no significant changes, 🇺🇦 capture few hilltops, 🇷🇺 attempts to recapture and fail

🔥 Crimea plans:
🇺🇦 M. Podolyak promised selfie from Yalta in half-year. Arestovych promised to join.
Crimea is quite vulnerable and hard to defend. All logistics are through bridge and ships.

🔥 Mud season:
Attacks are happening anyway, there are locations where weather doesn’t matter. At some locations weather does matter, but army can always find a way. Frozen ground of course is easier.
🇺🇦 army has warm-up points where front-line is stationary, allowing solders chance to take off boots and clean up. 🇺🇦 solders have experience of 9 years, being shared by veterans – solders need to have 3 pairs of boots, and chance to warm them, etc. Only few of squad are out on watch, taking shifts. It is not easy, but not a catastrophe. If 🇷🇺 doesn’t have anything of that, they will get frost-bites, fungus, trench foot, kidney problems.
Hardest weather will be with high humidity and frozen nights – it is still to come. Attempting to burning wet wood with fuel will cause many accidents.

🔥 Weapons:
🇺🇸 Pentagon considering supplying small precision missiles with significant range, usable with existing launch systems, costing $40k each.
🇬🇧 Brimstone with laser targeting has arrived.
New types of weapons announced periodically, unlikely west is slowing down supplies.

🔥 New weapons:
🇺🇦 O. Danilov calls for missiles with a range of 800 km or more, to achieve parity and stop hits at energy infrastructure. NATO expressed for two goals – to not expand war beyond Ukraine, and to not move war into depth of 🇷🇺. The second point needs questioning – why 🇷🇺 can attack depth of 🇺🇦, but 🇺🇦 can’t attack back.
Year ago 🇺🇦 desperately asked for Stinger missiles. 4 months ago 🇺🇦 got M142 HIMARS. It’s only a matter of time, until 🇺🇦 gets long range missiles and aviation.
Promise of not letting 🇺🇦 to loose is getting is getting doubted, when confronted with massive missile strikes on civilian infrastructure. It’s either more air-defense, for example MIM-104 Patriot system, or provide offensive weapons.

🔥 Prigozhin:
A former convict Kurara recorded a video, where he claims Prigozhin was a “rooster” [lowest caste, sexually abused] in prison. Anyone following him in Wagner, becomes even worse. This is possibly a response to his political goals. Main goal is to make him toxic to his elite peers – Kadyrov, Zolotov. Prigozhin possibly can continue to work, but anyone else will not create coalition with him. This can be easily verified with other inmates, and if true – Prigozhin will have hard time. This means serious deterioration among 🇷🇺 elites.

🔥 Turkey:
🇹🇷 carried air-strikes in Kurdish zones of 🇸🇾 Syria. Not expecting any sensations, nor clashes with 🇷🇺 army in 🇸🇾 Syria. Likely a limited operation, Erdogan doesn’t need full-scale war.

⚡️ Financial Times: European imports of Russian seaborne gas (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/financial-times-european-imports-of-russian-seaborne-gas-rise-to-record-high) rise to ‘record high.’
The record import of Russian seaborne gas emphasizes that Europe “has not completely shaken off its dependency on the country for crucial fuel as flows through pipelines have all but stopped, the Financial Times reported.
European imports of Russian liquified natural gas rose by 40% between January and October compared to the same period in 2021.

⚡️ DTEK: Emergency blackouts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/dtek-emergency-blackouts-resume-in-kyiv-on-nov-29) resume in Kyiv on Nov. 29.
Emergency power cutoffs were introduced in Kyiv on Nov. 29, Ukraine’s private energy company DTEK said, noting that scheduled power outages are currently not in effect.

The fourth French LRU multiple launch rocket system has arrived in Ukraine, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced on Nov. 29.

⚡️ Reuters: US, NATO to announce (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-us-nato-to-announce-aid-to-help-ukraine-restore-power-amid-russian-attacks-on-energy-infrastructure) aid to help Ukraine restore power amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken will announce new assistance to restore Ukraine’s power transmission ability amid ongoing Russian attacks against the country’s energy system, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed U.S. defense official.
Reuters also reported that U.S. and NATO allies will allocate money and equipment to Ukraine to help it restore power

⚡️Slovakia hands over (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/slovakia-hands-over-30-infantry-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine) 30 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

🛬 The Swedish government should allow the sale of Swedish SAAB JAS 39 Gripen fighters to Ukraine, in which the Ukrainian side is interested, — deputy of the Swedish Parliament Magnus Jakobsson [whether that means ' it ought to' or 'it probably will' is not clear]

If NATO does not start increasing the production of weapons, then Ukraine will not be able to win, — Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in an interview with Politico
[there have been a number of hints that weopons supplies are starting to run short]

Still no estimated Russian losses!

Still no estimated Russian losses!

I am wondering if we will ever find out. I saw a US estimate for 100,000 dead - but they said the same for the Ukrainian side, which doesn't seem right as I would expect the Russian KIA to be higher due to their lack of medical treatment.

There are currently many videos online of Ukrainian drones dropping grenades on Russian troops where they barely react to the explosions. It looks a lot like late-stage hypothermia.

Russian Soldiers Are Freezing To Death In Eastern Ukraine

I'm really struggling with how these Russian soldiers are dying. On the one hand I want to cheer it on, the faster the fuckers die the faster the Ukrainian people can get their lives back. But on the other, I look at my son and want to weep for the pointless young lives lost.

That was from General Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, and it was 100k dead or wounded.

‘Well over’ 100,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in Ukraine, U.S. says

The Pentagon assesses that over 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured and “probably” an equivalent number of Ukrainian soldiers, Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at an event in New York on Wednesday night. An additional 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have also died or been injured, and as many as 30 million have been forced to flee their homes, he said.

“There has been a tremendous amount of suffering,” Milley said.

This.

All for the pointless ambition of the mad emperor. Enabled by chicken hawks in luxury heated rooms.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
1h
⚡️US to provide Ukraine with $53 million to support energy system.

The new aid package will include distribution transformers, circuit breakers, surge arresters, disconnectors, vehicles, and other electricity grid equipment, U.S. State Secretary Antony Blinken said on Nov. 29.

One of the stories of Russian brutality is published by the Kyiv Independent and it's very distressing.