Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Russian site with canal system images:

of-crimea.ru/o-kryme/severo-krymskij-kanal.html

More on the history with images:

www.istpravda.com.ua/articles/2014/05/13/142692/

One big Soviet project.

Another good article:

Assessing whether Putin will resort to nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons – a question that took on new resonance as his regime has faltered even before the Kerch bridge attack — is no easy task. Policymakers would do well to remember three fundamentals that guide Putin’s decision-making: 1) he is the product of the 1970’s and 1980’s KGB and stood witness in then-East Germany in 1991, when the world as he knew it ceased to exist; 2) ego, survival, greed, and ambition direct his moral compass; and 3) he has come to believe his own propaganda.

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

This is the third reference I've seen on Twitter in the last hour to the Dnipro barge crossing being hit by UAF:

Explosions in the temporarily-occupied city of Kherson.

Explosions around the Antonivskyi bridge near Kherson.

Ukrainian defenders destroyed the barge crossing over the Dnipro near Nova Kakhovka.

The Russian fascist invaders in Kherson region are in a world of hurt.

twitter.com/mhmck/status/1583219413653737472?s=61&t=Ja4E-2PvVNzdUv8_8hfwdQ

@MMBaranova The images and articles on the history of supplying water to Crimea is fascinating. It boggles the mind, I had no idea of the scale of the Soviet style irrigation project to bring water from the Dnipro to Crimea. The manmade North Crimean Canal is more than 400 km and goes up to 150 m at its width. The water takes 32 days to pass from one end to the other.

Just shows how critical an issue water is Crimea. Putin could not have been happy when Ukraine turned off the taps after the Crimea invasion. No wonder Russia needed to take and to hold Kherson. Putin must have been itching to do that and planned for it in the Feb invasion.

I wonder what it meansfor the water supply to Crimea if the dam at nova kakhovka is shelled.

Important thread by Mick Ryan focusing on the Surovikin equation: twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1583256094142476288?s=46&t=OcuycbcIypcOOKR0Omkyng

Again for context and as the Minister says:

"we have seen very very close flying next to US, Nato and UK assets over the last few years.”

So in reality despite tensions in this specific part of the world not much has changed...

The popular view, sometimes as depicted in the media and in articles is that a lot of these interceptions end up with crews waving and smiling at each other before politely going on their way - that isn't completely accurate.

Even decades back, Cold War era, some of their Long Range Bomber Crews took great exception to being intercepted and were prepared to use very aggressive tactics to shake off shadowing aircraft - they appeared to have no absolutely no qualms about causing an accident.

@MMBaranova thank you for your ongoing contributions and I found the information on Crimea’s water supply particularly fascinating.

Surovikan is terrifying. I really wish someone could take him out

Echoing this, interesting stuff. I learn so much from this thread!

@MMBaranova another one who enjoyed the geography lesson - really interesting.

Yes second that, @MMBaranova very interesting.

Irresponsible media at it again today. Pictures circulating of Putin and his nuclear briefcase. Absolutely no recognition of the fact it goes everywhere he does and always has.

^MagicFox · Today 06:49*
Important thread by Mick Ryan focusing on the Surovikin equation: twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1583256094142476288?s=46&t=OcuycbcIypcOOKR0Omkyng

Within that link I saw this interview.
He is making out that there is an evil regime subjugating the Ukrainian people and forcing them to fight at gunpoint.

The first interview with General Sergei Surovikin: what did the new commander of the special military operation in Ukraine say? | CableFree TV

cablefreetv.org/the-first-interview-with-general-sergei-surovikin-what-did-the-new-commander-of-the-special-military-operation-in-ukraine-say/

Excerpt:
Ukrainians and I are one people and we want one thing, that Ukraine was independent from the West and NATO, a friendly state to Russia. Our enemy is a criminal regime that is forcing the citizens of Ukraine to death.

– This mode pulls all available reserves to the front line. In fact, these are territorial forces that have not received full training. In fact, it condemns to destruction. As a rule, such units have low morale. To prevent an escape from the front line, Ukrainian authorities deploy detachments of nationalists who shoot anyone who tries to leave the battlefield.

– Enemy losses range from 600 to 1000 killed and wounded per day.

In an interview, Surovikin also spoke about how the Russian troops are acting on their part. What are our priorities:

– We do not aim for a high degree of progress, we protect every soldier and methodically crush the attacking enemy. This not only minimizes losses, but also significantly reduces the number of civilian casualties.

One lie after another but it is amazing how confusing it is to hear them. It is so very easy to cast doubt and throw up a disorientating smoke screen to the Russian people.

EdithStourton · Today 08:58
@MMBaranova another one who enjoyed the geography lesson - really interesting

I liked the map and explanation too MMBaranova,, thank you very much.

Thanks for appreciating the Crimea Canal posts. I try to add something from a slightly different perspective when I can. I haven't been all of Crimea (mostly just down to Yalta before the annexation). A good friend lived and worked there and was keen on soils (and getting out during the Green Men chaos).

ISW Key Takeaways

Russia is likely continuing to prepare for a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).

Russian forces are likely setting conditions to remove military and occupation elements from the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of imminent Ukrainian advances.

The White House confirmed on October 20 that Iranian military personnel are in Russian-occupied Crimea, Ukraine to assist Russian forces in conducting drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Iran is providing military support to Russian forces in Ukraine despite new international sanctions likely in part because Iranian leaders believe that they need Moscow’s help to upend the US-led global order.

Iran is providing military support to Russian forces in Ukraine despite new international sanctions likely in part because Iranian leaders believe that they need Moscow’s help to upend the US-led global order.

Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces are consolidating limited regained positions in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 20 despite Ukrainian reports that Ukraine has liberated all but 1.8% of Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian troops have advanced in northern Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast but Russian sources contradicted their own claims on control of Bakhmut. Russian forces are likely continuing to falsify claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.

Russian regional governments and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continue to blame each other for military administrative failures.

+++

⚡️ Minister: In past 10 days, Russian troops carried out 300 strikes on Ukraine's energy system. [this fits with Surovikan's approach, according to Magic Fox's linked thread to Mick Ryan]

⚡️General Staff: Russia may withdraw experienced forces from Kherson.
Oleksiy Hromov, a top officer at the General Staff, said that the Russian command might keep only freshly mobilized troops on the right bank of the Dnipro River.

⚡️National Bank: Inflation in Ukraine to reach 30% in 2022.

⚡️Police: 146 bodies found at mass burial site in liberated Lyman.
Donetsk Oblast Police Department reported that the bodies of 111 civilians and 35 soldiers were found in the mass burial site in the recently liberated town.

⚡️Ukrainians have opened almost 10,000 businesses in Poland since Feb. 24.
Almost every tenth business in Poland is owned by Ukrainians, according to Business Insider Polska.
Most of them are companies in industries where Poland is facing labor shortages.

⚡️Blinken says Putin has no interest in 'meaningful diplomacy.'
The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told ABC News that Russian President Vladimir Putin “is rational, but the decisions he's making—or maybe better put, his objectives—are not rational.”
"What we've seen thus far is no interest on the part of Putin in meaningful diplomacy," Blinken said.

⚡️White House says Iranian troops in occupied Crimea support Russian drone strikes against Ukraine.

Russia relocates Kherson residents as Ukraine presses on with counteroffensive
On Oct. 19, Russian-installed proxies in occupied Kherson began relocating Ukrainians onto the Dnipro River's left bank, away from the city. Moscow's proxy leader, Vladimir Saldo, announced the plan to relocate up to 60,000 Ukrainians, banning entry into Kherson Oblast for civilians for seven days.

⚡️BBC: Ukraine seeks to extradite fugitive Security Service ex-general from Serbia.
The investigators suspect he could have passed Chornobyl security systems information to Russia. On Apr. 1, President Volodymyr Zelensky stripped Naumov’s general rank for his failure to live up to his oath of allegiance.

⚡️Amnesty International says Russian attacks on critical energy infrastructure amount to war crimes. [I'm afraid that what Amnesty says now is of no relevance or importance to me, personally after their previous comments]

⚡️New York Times: US believes Ukrainian military has opportunity to make gains against Russia’s army.
American officials interviewed by the New York Times believe that the upcoming few weeks, while the weather holds, could allow Ukraine’s military to press forward in Donbas and potentially retake Kherson.
The officials, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive or classified assessments of the war, warn that there is "little chance of a widespread collapse in Russian forces" that would allow Ukraine to take another huge swath of territory, similar to what it claimed in September during the Kharkiv counteroffensive. However, some individual Russian units could break in the face of sustained Ukrainian pressure.

⚡️Ukraine's military destroys Russian checkpoint, ammunition depots on southern front line.

⚡️CNN: Multiple foreign nationals, companies charged in alleged schemes to send military technology to Russia.

⚡️General Staff: Russia has sent up to 2,000 new recruits to Kherson Oblast.

Wow look how big they are, and so fluffy :)

Interesting analysis from Blinken about Putin not seeking any meaningful diplomacy. I keep seeing the US administration suggesting that Putin remains rational but that his actions/decisions aren't. I wonder what makes them so sure he is still rational.

Indeed.

Discussions about what 'difficult choices' means looks very different if your context is a newspaper with a picture of Putin with a briefcase compared with maps and information about irrigation and soil types.

Which narrative generates revenue for newspapers through sales and click based advertising revenue, i wonder?

Its absolutely disgusting. It does the Ukrainians a disservice because it increases the chances of the Western public pushing for a bad peace. There must be so many people for whom their mental health is in absolute tatters.

Which narrative generates revenue for newspapers through sales and click based advertising revenue, i wonder?

Yes, which is an indictment of our media and educational system.

@Igotjelly They are ahem, whispers a bit on the ugly side atm as their real feathers are starting to come in, so they are rather scraggy and you can see their skin in various places which is as attractive as duck skin usually is.

But they come when whistled and like sitting quietly next to me, although I don't let that happen too often as they leave little watery presents behind and then step in them and trail them all over the thankfully-tiled floor.

We are away for a week from tomorrow and I hope they don't forget me .... our Ukrainian friends are going to look after them for us so I'll have to bring back a big present, they're a lot of work!

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/-star-wars-actor-mark-hamill-s-campaign-sends-500-drones-to-ukraine

Luke Skywalker is sending drones! :)

Now caveat that its from the Daily Mail so probably utter bullshit but is there any credence in comments about the anticipated Grom exercises not having materialised?

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11335665/Mystery-missing-Russian-nuclear-tests.html

The discourse in mainstream media tends towards the simplistic (understandable I suppose) but then heads down a channel that does not warrant being the only thing that gets deeper analysis at the expense of others. Like nuclear possibilities.

I saw the 'evacuating Kherson to blow the dam and flood settlements' thing start up online. Maybe. However, it could threaten the agricultural viability of S Kherson oblast and, very dear to Putin's heart, Crimea.

If he really thinks Crimea is going to be recaptured though, he'll flood it. He is vindictive.

Putin believing Crimea was going to be recaptured would be a huge turnaround though, and worthy of comment in itself.
Up to now all the evidence is that he has been overestimating rather than underestimating his army and Ukrainian support for being Russian. If that had changed it would be a big deal.

No doubt. However, getting any force through Perekop would be a challenge (as would getting across the R Dnipro).

Crimea has a real emotional tug for many Russians and it was one of his honeymoon roadtrip locations.

Meanwhile: chatted to a young 20s relative in Dnipro this morning. Matter of factly said 'there was an alarm today'. Lives 10 - 15 minutes or so from the centre in an area that has not experienced damage. Still has a very immaculate hair and nails and handbags type social media presence but almost nothing posted since February.