Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Well thats a turn up for the books.

Now what?

I see Putler is still following his genoicidal predecessor's disastrous playbook.

Personally directing the military, overruling officers on the ground. ✅
Wasting scarce resources retributively bombing civilian targets, rather than military ones.✅

IIRC, Churchill said something like, "As long as he's bombing London, he isn't bombing our airfields."

I can see this.
When I asked my guest how his wife was getting on in Kyiv, on Saturday he said she was afraid. Today he said she’s ok. Must be great relief that it wasn’t nuclear and wasn’t worse.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · Today 08:41
OwlsDance · Today 07:42
Explosions in Kyiv this morning. Bastards

One of my guests has had to go back to Kyiv for a flying visit but her dh has heard from her and she can hear the explosions but it’s not their part of the city.

Will be so glad when she gets back here again

I bet. How worrying for you all. And in Ukraine the anxiety about where and when the next bomb will come must be utterly draining.

Lmp26 · Today 09:45
Just wanted to come on here and say thankyou. The past few months this thread has helped me massively as my brother has joined the international legion in ukraine so everyday is a worry! It's nice to read something that isn't full of scaremongering!! Pray the war is over soon for the poor Ukrainians and Mr P gets his comeuppance!!

Good luck to your brother. You must feel anxious about his well-being all the time.

💐to your brave brother.
That must be very hard for you. Praying he will come home safely x

What do we think the actual impact of Belarus and Russia’s joint task force?

@Lmp26 praying for peace and the safety of your brother ❤️

i haven’t seen anything on it but my initial thoughts were

1. it’s just another threat and they will just be at the border and not engaging
2. they actually get involved and they are just used as a distraction from what is happening elsewhere so Ukraine can’t focus purely on Luhansk/Donetsk areas

I hope if it’s either of my two initial thoughts its 1. I really don’t think Lukashenko wants to be dragged into it, but at the end of day he obeys Putin as he wants his own dictatorship to remain

Putin is speaking now, Sky news is trying to broadcast it but keeps having probs with the transmission.

@autumn1610 I agree re Lukashenko. I will be surprised if he actually puts his money where his mouth is. I am expecting stall after stall on this.

@Lmp26 very best of luck and safety to your brother !

The war has become a war for a domestic audience consumption for Russia and for domestic infighting. It is no longer about Ukraine, but PR management and control at home.

Worth saying again that if it this the case, Putin is quietly but directly threatened at home now, if he has to fear his people this much. It ties in with the directly-critical-of-him comments from some shills now, and the reports of factional infighting in Moscow.

He's loosing, or lost, control of the reins now and the horses are bucking hard.

@faytuks

The entire danish island of Bornholm is without power due to damage to the submarine cable to Sweden that supplies the island with electricity

Moldova says that three russian cruise missiles crossed Moldovan air space on monday. Russian ambassador has been summoned.

@maxseddon

Putin says Russia hit military, energy, and communications targets in response to the Crimea bridge attack.

"If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks continue, Russia's response will be severe and at the level of the threats facing it. Nobody should be in any doubt."

Trying to draw a line under this set of attacks?

ilPutin expected to meet Erdogan soon to discuss talks over Ukraine.

I don't think so...

@velinatchakarova "We saw a rain of missiles terror over the capital of Ukraine. This is not only a retaliation for the explosion of the Crimea bridge, but also the military signature of Gen. Surovikin. Those who have followed Russia‘s involvement in Syria know what I mean. We will see more of it."

@francisscarr "This post from Russian war reporter Alexander Kots doesn't require my commentary

"One has to hope that this wasn't a one-off act of retribution, but a new system for carrying out the conflict. On the entire depth of the Ukrainian state. Until it loses its ability to function"

These are weapons that could have been targeted at strategic points, but few look to have been particularly aimed at strategic points.

TBH we're sure how much precision stuff they have left to throw at strategic points....

Lacking precision munitions it's sadly area targeting.

ISW Key inflection in ongoing military operations on October 9:

Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the Oskil Rver in the direction of Luhansk Oblast and have entered Stel’makhivka (about 18km west of Svatove).[27] Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on Burdaka on the Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and Terny northeast of Lyman.[28]

Russian sources reported that Russian forces attempted to attack in the direction of Ternovi Pody (approximately 30km northwest of Kherson City)[29] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to target newly liberated settlements in northern Kherson Oblast with artillery, MLRS, and aviation.[30]

Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled over 30 attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.[31] Russian forces launched an unsuccessful assault southwest of Donetsk City.[32]

Russian forces targeted residential areas of Zaporizhzhia City with cruise missiles.[33]

A Russian milblogger accused North Ossetia and Vladikavkaz of failing to fulfill mobilization orders due to carelessness and the personal interests of regional officials.[34]

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian occupation authorities are moving their families from Kherson Oblast to Crimea, and from Starobilsk to Luhansk City.[35]

NOTE: The ISW said outright for the first time that Russia cannot win this war.
"Putin cannot do the one thing his hardline constituency demands—win the war"

"Escalation, either conventional or nuclear, cannot solve Putin’s problems. If Russian forces are able to expand their attacks against Ukrainian population centers or critical infrastructure, or if Putin is willing to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, he can only hope thereby to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensives for a time. Such attacks will not allow his forces to conquer Ukraine and achieve the objectives that extreme pro-war Russian nationalists demand."

It's a good job I'm not in any position of power because if I were I'd be now focusing all my efforts of destroying that sodding bridge in its entirity.

My only consolation is that Putin looks terrible!

Thanks for your roundup Ijsbear, in particular this bit:

NOTE: The ISW said outright for the first time that Russia cannot win this war.
"Putin cannot do the one thing his hardline constituency demands—win the war"

"Escalation, either conventional or nuclear, cannot solve Putin’s problems. If Russian forces are able to expand their attacks against Ukrainian population centers or critical infrastructure, or if Putin is willing to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, he can only hope thereby to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensives for a time. Such attacks will not allow his forces to conquer Ukraine and achieve the objectives that extreme pro-war Russian nationalists demand."

I really needed to hear that this morning after the atrocities overnight and the appointing of that fucking inhuman general Surovikin.

They’ve hit the German Consulate in Kyiv!

I'm very surprised that any nuclear threat wasn't even mentioned atall to be honest. And the mention of the talks with Turkey which I thought they wouldn't even mention. I do wander with him looking so terrible if he's trying to create himself an off ramp.

It does also sound like he's drawing a line under today's attacks (which were to be expected after the bridge). Strange if that's the case though to draw a line under it.

All in all awful events over Ukraine, thank God their air defence worked on more than half the missiles. But much less threatening language from Putin than I would have expected after the attack on the bridge.

I do actually agree, considering the significance of the attack on the bridge.

@Igotjelly he really does. His face of evil seems to change significantly in terms of bloat levels as well.

Impressive. That's declaration of war level stuff.

Maybe Germany will take it seriously. Or maybe they wont.

Lots of embassies will be summoning.