Igotjelly · and off ramps
My musings were not in any way critical of you, just pondering the whole 'off ramp' thing which along with nuclear worries seem to be part of the general discourse out there.
Before I went away (am still in Spain, it's Ireland next, and then back to London to see how well Mini-Nova thrives without me) I had a 'moment' with a friend's partner. He's a StopTheWarEr and possibly part of a hereditary sect that thinks Lenin was on the right path before the New Economic Policy. Generally pleasant and helpful man, but you can press a button when discussing a conflict and he'll go into Just Stop The War mode. Discussing the Russian invasion, he reached StopTheWar and I said 'yes'. "So you agree with me?". 'Yes. Putin pull the troops out, stand down and get a plane to The Hague'. I backed away before he malfunctioned.
How the war plays out in the medium term is hard to tell. Until at least the weather shifts I think we are going to see continued Ukrainian advances, while we see what Surovikin can do. I doubt he can do much on the ground, although his appointment might give a morale boost and ensure greater coordination between regular forces, Chechens and Wagnerites. His supply lines are compromised, and the flow of the poorly trained, ill-equipped, unfit and often unsuitable newly mobilised cannon fodder is not going to make much of a difference. He'll no doubt build on his reputation from Syria and continue to target civilians and infrastructure.
I don't see much fatigue from NATO allies. It might develop. The emergency G7 meeting today, according to the New York Times, 'pledged “undeterred and steadfast” financial and military support for Ukraine, and emphasized “severe consequences” for Russia if it were to use chemical, biological or nuclear weapons'.