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Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

1000 replies

MagicFox · 03/10/2022 14:47

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
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84
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 03/10/2022 17:28

Piece posted at 4:50pm in The Times:

Putin orders nuclear military train to Ukraine front line

President Putin is set to demonstrate his willingness to use weapons of mass destruction with a nuclear test on Ukraine’s borders, defence sources have warned.
The Kremlin has been signalling its readiness for a significant escalation as Russia loses ground on the battlefield. Fears that Putin’s earlier hints that he might resort to such tactics were heightened today by claims that a train operated by the secretive nuclear division was destined for Ukraine.
Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst based in Poland, said the train, spotted in central Russia, was linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence and that it was β€œresponsible for nuclear munitions, their storage, maintenance, transport, and issuance to units”.
International analysts suggest, however, that a more likely demonstration of Putin’s readiness to use nuclear weaponss_ could come in the Black Sea. A senior defence source said that he faced a significant risk if he chose to deploy a nuclear weapon in the battlefield, as it could go wrong. β€œThey could misfire and accidentally hit a Russian city close to the Ukrainian border such as Belgorod,” the source said. β€œThen he would have to escalate.”
Sources said Natoo_ had sent an intelligence report to its members and allies alerting them to the fact that Russia is expected to test its nuclear-capable torpedo drone Poseidon, possibly in the Black Sea, which it controls. As officials in Washington draw up possible scenarios for a response, Nato is thought to have reported that the nuclear submarine K-329 Belgorod is headed to the Arctic, having become operational in July.
The Poseidon torpedo, dubbed the β€œweapon of the apocalypse”, can be launched from the submarine. According to La Repubblica newspaper, it is about to be tested in the area of the Kara Sea, north of the Russian mainland. The Poseidon operates autonomously and is about 24m (78ft) long, with a range of at least 10,000km (6,200 miles).
Russiaa_ acknowledged today that Ukrainian forces had broken through its defences in the southern Kherson region. Igor Konashenkov, a defence ministry spokesman, told reporters that the Ukrainians had seized territory thanks to β€œsuperior tank units” and had β€œpenetrated into the depths of our defence”.

The Moscow-based news outlet RBC reported that the commander of Russia’s western military district, Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlyov, had been dismissed, and would be replaced by Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov.
Kherson is one of the four regions illegally annexed by Moscoww_ last week after a sham referendum orchestrated by the Kremlin. The land grab has threatened to push the conflict to a dangerous new level, raising the prospect of a nuclear strike masquerading as a defence of Russian territory.
[[https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/ukraine
Ukraine]]e_ has also pushed to regain territory within the region of Luhansk and claimed full control of Russia’s eastern logistics hub, Lyman, in Donetsk.
Professor Andrew Futter, a nuclear weapons expert at the University of Leicester, said the nuclear submarine could perform various tactical functions and was far more than simply a nuclear delivery platform. He suggested that, as in the case of the train, Russia was trying to send a signal to the West that it should stop meddling in the conflict or risk further escalation.
James Rogers, director of research at the Council on Geostrategy, said that he would not rule out a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine’s advancing forces, no matter how unlikely that seemed. β€œGiven the quality of the decision-making in the Kremlin at the moment, nothing should be discounted. The Russians are getting desperate, but it would be a dramatic escalation and one that countries such as India and even China would surely condemn,” he said.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 03/10/2022 17:30

Sincerely hoping the above is click bait the Media do like to terrify us!

expandabandband · 03/10/2022 17:37

DrBlackbird · 03/10/2022 16:01

12,800 posts by a range of mostly Wink as the trolls have largely dropped off interesting and informative voices and counting.

PMK for this next round.

Someone was also saying on Twitter that the Russian bots and trolls are noticeable by their absence at the moment

strawberriesarenot · 03/10/2022 17:38

Thank you

Igotjelly · 03/10/2022 17:44

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 03/10/2022 17:30

Sincerely hoping the above is click bait the Media do like to terrify us!

Don’t forget too how important optics are.
He could just be moving an empty train about to try and prove a point. I really wouldn’t put it past him.

MagicFox · 03/10/2022 17:45

I'm surprised I haven't seen this reported on doom Twitter. I just looked now and can't find it. Saw reports about the Poseidon yesterday but again Twitter very quiet about it

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katem98 · 03/10/2022 17:46

Thanks for the thread @MagicFox.

Also hoping the piece published by The Times is just click bait...

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 03/10/2022 17:50

Igotjelly · 03/10/2022 17:44

Don’t forget too how important optics are.
He could just be moving an empty train about to try and prove a point. I really wouldn’t put it past him.

This.
Moving nuclear stuff around in order to frighten people is basically cost free for Putin. Why wouldn’t he do it, regardless of whether or not he is going to use it?

LoveLarry · 03/10/2022 17:50

Checking in

Re the news about the train - I know we've all said it several times but who the hell does he think he is

This is the stuff that you would not believe if it was in a. BBC drama

MagicFox · 03/10/2022 17:51

There's a psychological element to the nuclear threat that's part of it, he's waging war with that, with the fear they could be used. Of course they could and that's terrifying but so is the rattling and that's the point

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miceonabranch · 03/10/2022 17:52

I think the problem is that nobody knows what his mindset is atm. He could be doing things to wind the world up, or he could be in the process of flipping his lid.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 03/10/2022 17:57

miceonabranch · 03/10/2022 17:52

I think the problem is that nobody knows what his mindset is atm. He could be doing things to wind the world up, or he could be in the process of flipping his lid.

Yes but don’t forget he doesn’t actually have a nuclear button. If he flips his lid to that extent he is still dependent on the people below him who are slightly less deranged following the orders that would take them down with him. Deranged suicidal Putin is the point at which they rebel.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 03/10/2022 17:57

MagicFox · 03/10/2022 17:51

There's a psychological element to the nuclear threat that's part of it, he's waging war with that, with the fear they could be used. Of course they could and that's terrifying but so is the rattling and that's the point

Exactly this.

PerkingFaintly · 03/10/2022 18:01

expandabandband · 03/10/2022 17:37

Someone was also saying on Twitter that the Russian bots and trolls are noticeable by their absence at the moment

Interesting. Do we think their trolling has been redirected (and if so, onto what/where?)

Or is there some other reason? Like the staff aren't at work any more – resigned / fled the country / been sent to die in Ukraine

Igotjelly · 03/10/2022 18:08

www.thesun.co.uk/news/19985372/footage-putin-elite-nuclear-forces-signal-to-west/amp/

Not usually one for the Sun but this is unusually measured. Suggests, amongst other things, that Oct is generally a busy month for exercises of the strategic military units and that the train may well be part of that.

I do think of it was a significant move, meant to be symbolic, we would have heard more about it in the form of Kremlin propaganda. what use is weaponising fear when no one knows you’re doing it?

MagicFox · 03/10/2022 18:09

Yes but don’t forget he doesn’t actually have a nuclear button. If he flips his lid to that extent he is still dependent on the people below him who are slightly less deranged following the orders that would take them down with him. Deranged suicidal Putin is the point at which they rebel.

In line with this, saw an interesting comment on Twitter that said "If Putin's generals are loyal enough to carry out nuclear attack orders, it means Putin's domestic position is secure enough to not need a nuclear attack in the first place."

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EdithStourton · 03/10/2022 18:21

It looks as if the head of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been released by Russia, back to the Ukrainians.

Ijsbear · 03/10/2022 18:27

That's good news @EdithStourton

Igotjelly · 03/10/2022 18:42

m.jpost.com/international/article-718745/amp

Doesnt make for the most pleasant reading but explains, I think, quite succinctly why even a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine wouldn’t mean definite nuclear annihilation for the World.

ScrollingLeaves · 03/10/2022 18:48

This may have been aired before but I heard this episode this morning. They mentioned we in the U.K. effectively paid for Putin’s war. No other countries use this β€˜offshore’ system which enables laundering so effectively.

it is a certainly upsetting to realise this guilt.

Radio 4
^How to Steal a Trillion
1.The Invention of Offshore^

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0017t8j

ScrollingLeaves · 03/10/2022 19:03

DesdamonasHandkerchiefΒ· Today 17:28
Re Piece posted at 4:50pm in The Times:
Thank you for that article.

DesdamonasHandkerchief Β· Today 17:30
Sincerely hoping the above is click bait the Media do like to terrify us!

I think it may not be just click-bait unfortunately. Let’s hope for the best though as to what it all means.

minsmum · 03/10/2022 19:05

mobile.twitter.com/shanvav/status/1576980106731405319 Elon Musk gives his opinion on what should happen in Ukraine. Ukrainian ambassador to Germany response.......Fuck off

Igotjelly · 03/10/2022 19:10

minsmum · 03/10/2022 19:05

mobile.twitter.com/shanvav/status/1576980106731405319 Elon Musk gives his opinion on what should happen in Ukraine. Ukrainian ambassador to Germany response.......Fuck off

I’m quite disappointed in Musk, he’s previously been far more pro-Ukrainian.

I do however fear that this will indeed be where this conflict β€˜settles’. I think if Ukraine can push the Russians back to Feb 24th boundaries we might see Western resolve start to falter.

ScrollingLeaves · 03/10/2022 19:16

Elon Musk suggests Ukraine should be "neutral" in Russia's war in Ukraine and in an approach to peace, and says Crimea is "formally part of Russia" (US/other allies recognize Crimea is Ukrainian)

What on earth is he talking about? How can an invaded, brutally attacked country be neutral?

Fladdermus · 03/10/2022 19:20

ScrollingLeaves · 03/10/2022 19:16

Elon Musk suggests Ukraine should be "neutral" in Russia's war in Ukraine and in an approach to peace, and says Crimea is "formally part of Russia" (US/other allies recognize Crimea is Ukrainian)

What on earth is he talking about? How can an invaded, brutally attacked country be neutral?

He means that Ukraine agrees to be neutral instead of pursuing NATO membership.

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