Ukraine Invasion: Part 32

[MagicFox]

Gosh, that last one filled up quick! Welcome to 32, all 🇺🇦

Ummm..going into quibble mode for a moment

That's, shall, we say a somewhat meaningless claim from the lady on Twitter and TBH a bit meaningless without context - for example it's certainly not best in the world for long range engagements...

That said it looks like a good system with on paper some interesting and novel capabilities and I'm sure the Ukrainians will make good use of it.

Joseph Borrell's speech at the EU Ambassadors
Conference. Worth reading : www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-ambassadors-annual-conference-2022-opening-speech-high-representative-josep-borrell_en

Especially this section:

"Let me try to summarise what is happening to us. Maybe I am wrong, but I want to discuss with you about it. I think that we Europeans are facing a situation in which we suffer the consequences of a process that has been lasting for years in which we have decoupled the sources of our prosperity from the sources of our security. This is a sentence to provide the headline, and I am taking that from Oliver Schmitt, who has been developing this thesis – I think - quite well.

Our prosperity has been based on cheap energy coming from Russia. Russian gas – cheap and supposedly affordable, secure, and stable. It has been proved not [to be] the case. And the access to the big China market, for exports and imports, for technological transfers, for investments, for having cheap goods. I think that the Chinese workers with their low salaries have done much better and much more to contain inflation than all the Central Banks together.

So, our prosperity was based on China and Russia – energy and market. Clearly, today, we have to find new ways for energy from inside the European Union, as much as we can, because we should not change one dependency for another. The best energy is the one that you produce at home. That will produce a strong restructuring of our economy – that is for sure. People are not aware of that but the fact that Russia and China are no longer the ones that [they] were for our economic development will require a strong restructuring of our economy.

The access to China is becoming more and more difficult. The adjustment will be tough, and this will create political problems.

On the other hand, we delegated our security to the United States. While the cooperation with the Biden Administration is excellent, and the transatlantic relationship has never been as good as it is today – [including] our cooperation with the United States and my friend Tony [Anthony] Blinken [US Secretary of State]: we are in a fantastic relationship and cooperating a lot; who knows what will happen two years from now, or even in November? What would have happened if, instead of [Joe] Biden, it would have been [Donald] Trump or someone like him in the White House? What would have been the answer of the United States to the war in Ukraine? What would have been our answer in a different situation?
These are some questions that we have to ask ourselves. And the answer for me is clear: we need to shoulder more responsibilities ourselves. We have to take a bigger part of our responsibility in securing security.
You - the United States - take care of our security. You - China and Russia – provided the basis of our prosperity. This is a world that is no longer there."

Thank you MagicFox. That looks a very important piece by Borrell.

It's quite something isn't it Perking? Should be far more widely circulated. It's on point, clear-eyed and has a powerful immediacy to it

I'm a bit early with it but as it's late and we're close to 1k here's the link to the new thread for when we need it: Ukraine Invasion: Part 33 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4653311-ukraine-invasion-part-33

DH says it has the capcity to take out a nuke. So having it reduces the risk of one being used as you don't fire an $28 million missile if there's a good chance it'll be destroyed before it reaches its target.

What happens to the nuke then? Is it certain not to go off anyway, just not on its intended target?

Ukraine then are potentially a new nuclear power. DH can't say for certain as the exact design of nuclear weapons are secret even to him. But he says they are more robust than conventional weapons as they timed to detonate after impact not on impact. So they have to survive impact. There's a good chance that an intercepted warhead would survive and could, with a bit of tweaking, then be used again. So Putin would be risking it not hitting its target and it falling into Ukrainian hands.

It's very unlikely to detonate. There are safeguards in the arming process to prevent them from going off before they reach their target.

DH says it has the capcity to take out a nuke. So having it reduces the risk of one being used as you don't fire an $28 million missile if there's a good chance it'll be destroyed before it reaches its target.

Many decent modern medium and Long range SAMs have the capability to possibly engage ("take out") a missile (both ballistic and cruise) that may or may not be nuclear armed.

The Ukranians already have various variants of the S-300 in service (current numbers unknown) which have an anti-ballistic missile capability and can engage at potentially greater ranges than IRIS-T.

IRIS-T will be a major addition to the Ukraine defences, but "worlds best" claims are a bit 🤔

That was for @BringBackCoffeeCreams ..and if the thread runs long enough to allow I guess for completeness

I'm afraid your DH isn't at all right when he says nukes "are more robust than conventional weapons as they timed to detonate after impact not on impact."

That depends on the delivery mode and the target...many are actually designed to detonate before impact (known as "airburst").

The other sunny point is that the inbound, possibly nuclear tipped missiles now are often equipped with decoys, often multiple, designed to possibly saturate and certainly try and confuse any defences...

Having a SAM with anti-missile capability doesn't mean the warhead won't get through.

I know nothing about weapons or systems just repeating what was said, I am definitely not qualified to comment

A bit techy, but this is what IRIS-T, S-300 and other SAM systems in theatre have to cope with:

www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44760/russias-use-of-iskander-ballistic-missiles-in-ukraine-exposes-secret-decoy-capability

Reminder of new thread: Ukraine Invasion: Part 33 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4653311-ukraine-invasion-part-33

MagicFox · Today 21:07
Joseph Borrell's speech at the EU Ambassadors
Conference. Worth reading : www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-ambassadors-annual-conference-2022-opening-speech-high-representative-josep-borrell_en

Thank you. I just tried to write all the thoughts it gave rise to but deleted my words by mistake. His speech paints a picture of a fragile Europe with great shifts happening through the world. It is well worth reading. Dozing and complacency must stop.

My DH is a nuclear scientist. What's your field of expertise that qualifies you to correct him on nuclear matters?

TBF an orthopedic surgeon isn't an expert on neurosurgery, Nuclear science must cover a huge range

Putin isn't about to use a high yield nuclear missile, it will be a "relatively" low yield weapon, IF he uses one at all.

Anyway, on the "Forever war" scenario, even if Russia was pushed back to all pre 2014 borders, whats to stop them from bombing Ukraine from within Russia

I don't doubt your DH's Physics qualifications but has he had any education in a subject called Weapons effects or similar?

Your husband may be thinking of weapons that were designed to be delivered by a technique called laydown ( dropped from low flying aircraft overflying the target ) where the device is delayed to let the delivering aircraft escape from the blast so usually has a parachute and is "ruggedised"...there might also be some warheads that are delayed for other reasons (e.g. nuclear depth charges).....

OTOH many nuclear weapons delivered by missile or other techniques, even manned aircraft, are very definitely designed to burst above the target, before ground impact - amongst other things that increases the effectiveness of the weapon against area targets.

Hope that helps.

ISW

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row.

Army General Sergey Surovikin’s previous experience as commander of Russian Armed Forces in Syria is likely unrelated to the massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine over the past few days, nor does it signal a change in the trajectory of Russian capabilities or strategy in Ukraine.

The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases, which is incompatible with the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued ground attacks in northern and western Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian reporting of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, indicated panic over losing further logistics capabilities in Crimea following the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.

Russian federal subjects are announcing new extensions and phases of mobilization in select regions, which may indicate that they have not met their mobilization quotas.

Russian and occupation administration officials continue to conduct filtration activities in Russian-occupied territories.

+++

⚡️ Russia hits thermal plant in Vinnytsia Oblast twice, injures 6 people.

⚡️ Energoatom: Russia kidnaps Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant's deputy head.
Russian troops have kidnapped Valerii Martyniuk, deputy head of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, holding him in an unknown place and allegedly torturing him, according to state nuclear company Energoatom
Russian forces are trying to get information about the plant staff from Martyniuk "to force (the plant's) personnel to work for (Russia's nuclear corporation) Rosatom as soon as possible," Energoatom stated.

⚡️ Ukrainians crowdfund about $10 million for kamikaze drones in 1 day.

Russian media: Putin, Erdogan to discuss Ukraine.

⚡️Spiegel: Ukraine receives German IRIS-T air defense system.
According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, the first of the four new IRIS-T SLM air defense systems arrived in Ukraine via Poland.

Zelensky asks for international observers on Belarus border, offers 'peace formula.'
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-asks-for-international-observers-on-belarus-border-offers-peace-formula)

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk earlier said that Russia currently has 2,500 Ukrainian POWs.

⚡️UN Secretary-General aims to prolong grain deal for a year.
Antonio Guterres and his team are working on an expanded Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine Agricultural Ministry reported citing Stephane Dujarric, a spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General

⚡️US works to expedite delivery of 2 NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine.

G7 leaders vow to hold Putin to account. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/g-7-leaders-vow-to-hold-putin-to-account)
Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) condemned Russia’s widespread missile attacks on Ukraine after an extraordinary G7 summit led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

⚡️Minister: Russia has struck about 30% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure since Oct. 10.

⚡️Germany, Norway, and Denmark to buy 16 Zuzana howitzers for Ukraine. The artillery systems will be produced in the Slovak Republic with a preliminary delivery in 2023

💛 Another 37 children deported by the occupiers returned home, the Ministry of Reintegration reported
“At the end of August, children were forcibly taken from the Kharkiv region to the Russian city of Kabardinka (near Gelendzhik), despite the fact that they all have parents

📣 Russia's victory in the conflict in Ukraine will be a defeat for NATO, and this cannot be allowed — Secretary General of the Alliance Jens Stoltenberg
In addition, he noted that NATO has not yet seen any signs of Russia preparing a nuclear strike.

All six power units have been switched off at ZNPP, the occupiers are forcing employees to sign contracts with Rosatom
The occupiers apply the so-called "filtering measures" to some of the personnel and members of their families. Workers are required to formalize Russian passports and sign contracts with Rosatom.

🔺 Russia has ordered 2,400 Shahed kamikaze drones from Iran — Zelensky at the G7 meeting

🔎 Political scientist and founder of the Eurasia Group consulting company Ian Bremmer said that Elon Musk told him about his phone conversation with Putin before posting a "peace plan" for Ukraine on Twitter

🍷 Russian retail chains have almost exhausted their stocks of elite alcohol, – Igor Karavaev, Chairman of the Presidium of the Association of Retail Trade Companies of the Russian Federation

💔 Oksana Leontieva was killed yesterday in Kyiv by a Russian missile
Oksana was going to work at the Okhmatdit hospital.
She was an oncologist, a bone marrow transplant specialist. She had been saving children’s lives for 11 years.

🛥 Russia lost three-fifths of its offshore oil sales to Europe after it sent troops to Ukraine in February – Bloomberg

📣 “It will take months to repair the Lviv thermal power plants destroyed by Russia,” Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said during a briefing

🔎 General Staff: The Belarusian authorities removed the first batch of 20 T-72 tanks from storage and sent them to Russia. The defense industry complex of Belarus is already involved in the repair of Russian equipment damaged during combat operations

Sorry, but you are completely wrong on this. ALL nuclear bombs are designed and built to detonate after impact. That is their primary function. Some can also be detonated before impact but they are still built to their primary function. There are no nuclear bombs that aren't built this way. Bombs that only detonate before impact do not exist. The technology to do this was developed after testing of new designs was completely banned. So the robust design of impact first bombs has to be used. Because even Putin isn't crazy enough to use nuclear bombs designed in theory but never tested

You field of expertise is ... ?

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

ALL nuclear bombs are designed and built to detonate after impact

Bombs that only detonate before impact do not exist.

I'm not going to keep going round in circles on this, but if what you claim is true then it's news to the whole world and your sources are guilty of a major breach of confidentiality, or, much more likely, you are mistaken and are perhaps getting some incorrect information from somewhere.

Apologies I'm not sharing my CV (it's not that startling anyway), but I'll summarise what's easily verified elsewhere as being the current state of play from multiple open sources:

From the starting point that by "bombs" you mean generic warheads, missile, aircraft, artillery delivered -

Airburst/High Altitude nuclear burst is (sadly) still a desired option for some targets - weapons and fusing methods do exist to achieve that....

Surface/sub-surface burst is also sometimes desired, so some weapons are indeed robust enough to ground penetrate, or at least survive initial impact, and are built to detonate after contact.

Some weapons exist that have the option of selectable fusing - contact/airburst, the mode selected depending on the target.

You are right about test bans imposing major restrictions on warhead testing, above ground, that has thankfully gone, but you can't draw the conclusion from that that those tested warheads now can't or won't be used as airburst.

Meh, who needs an expert when there's an armchair free. I'm out. Don't have the mental energy for this bullshit.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4653311-ukraine-invasion-part-33