Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

FWIW we've just spent some time in Paris and from what we could work out (various methods employed) there were certainly a considerable number of Ukrainians around.

Yes they could have been Ukrainian.

mobile.twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1565650741498355712 statement from Ukraine

Or Russians who like several of DH’s friends and colleagues applied for citizenship as soon as this kicked off in March because they want nothing to do with their country of origin as long as its current government or one like it is in charge.

<bites nails>

Oooo

My town is having a village gathering tomorrow to help the Ukrainian guests integrate more, showcasing the different sports and activities in town that they can join and they'll be selling Ukrainian pastries and stuff that they've made (just wish I could eat them, but gluten). Hopefully it helps everyone get to know each other better as they're a bit separated, being in an asylum centre rather than staying as guests in people's houses.

⚡️Minister: 185,000 Ukrainian children went to school in Poland this year.

⚡️IAEA chief: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant's integrity violated several times.

⚡️G7 countries agree to introduce price cap on Russian oil starting Dec. 5.
At a meeting on Sept. 2, G7 finance ministers formally backed the plan, which aims to ease energy market pressures while reducing Moscow’s overall revenues, Bloomberg reported.

🔺The Free Democratic Party of Germany called for the dismantling of Nord Stream 2

🛩 The transfer of American fighter jets to Ukraine is still being discussed, but it will take years, so today, the United States is focused on ensuring the effective use of the aircraft, available in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and training Ukrainian pilots. All the more so, as the Ukrainian Air Force is showing extra-professional abilities even under the existing conditions and is on guard against the enemy daily

‼️ “The same as in Bucha and Irpin”: a military expert spoke about the rape of ZNPP employees by Russians
“There is information from our power engineers, they talk about physical violence and rape of nuclear power plant employees and the use of physical force against nuclear power plant employees. That is, the Russian troops are not ashamed of anything. The massacre continues there too. Only there so far without fatal consequences," Oleh Zhdanov said.

The Chinese payment system UnionPay banned the service of cards in Russian banks

❌ Russians on the border with Latvia refuse to let Ukrainians out of the occupied territories
Telegram channels write that the border guards of the Russian Federation are doing their best to prevent people from leaving for Latvia through the territory of the Russian Federation, passing up to 10 people per hour.
As a result, the Ukrainians have to stand in line for three days, and the Russians are looking for reasons not to let them in, explaining the delays with system failures, shift changes, or simply closing the checkpoint for the night.

⚡️The Swedish manufacturer of household appliances Electrolux decided to leave Russia. The subsidiary will be sold, the business will be transferred to local management.

Watching this closely

Obviously I/we have no idea what's going on but it's not unusual to see navigation warnings such as that for that part of the world...though they don't usually cover quite as wide an area.

Novaya Zemlya sits just south of what was in more normal times is one of the main air routes between Europe and Japan.

@MagicFox There has been no other mention/ speculation of this on twitter has there? I rarely use the app and maybe I'm not looking correctly but I can't find much else on the matter!

@katem98 no, sorry I should have linked to the thread. It's here: twitter.com/atlandkristian/status/1565676272033882115?s=21&t=avVnCc-LyEuAYWyjJQ-7ZQ

The account belongs to a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. I'll keep checking my for updates

Thank you @MagicFox

Thanks for the direct link...

I'm going to have to go and see if I can find the raw warning (NOTAM) because the text in that diagram implies the vertical extent of the airspace closure is only from sea level up to 1500 metres - ("SFC till 1500M amsl)...rather than "SFC to unltd - surface to unlimited" - which is what you'd expect for something really kinetic such as weapons testing/missile firing...

@notimagain Do you think this is something to be overly concerned about? The speculation on Twitter is freaking me out a bit, not going to lie Wish I had slight more understanding with these matters as I have no clue what I'm reading!

Solidarity @katem98 I've spent a lot of time panicking lately but I'm realising this is going to be escalating for a long time on multiple fronts and we have to take each day as it comes, pray for cool heads (especially, I think, in the US-China theatre) and hope it'll be alright. You're not alone, we're all in it together

From what I can gather, russia is trying to position itself as a geopolitical powerhouse in the US-China standoff. And the best outcome would be the frustration of that. Somehow. The US needs to step up and calm things down with China, arrive at some sort of detente. I know it seems a bit weird to be talking outside of Ukraine, but the bigger picture pulls in a lot of players and has been long in the planning I think

Thank you @MagicFox! I've not been as bad recently but it comes in waves when headlines change Yes, I've been following the China situation quite closely. I think, and please tell me if I'm wrong, that China just doesn't strike me as stupid. I think they're a little more careful and a lot less impulsive than Russia which brings me some comfort when I'm desperately searching for it! Even if I'm wrong in other peoples view, I will keep telling myself this to save myself going literally insane

No I think you're right. China isn't Russia. But it does all boil down to one man to some extent so eurgh. The election in China will be in oct so if Xi is going to get more hawkish it'll be after that

TBH it's hard to read what the Russians are up to (obviously) but the chart in question needed to be accompanied by some context, something that seems to be lacking in the research fellows tweet.

It's really important when considering this subject to be aware that (as mentioned upthread) these types of navigation warnings are really not that unusual around the globe and in my time in civil aviation I saw plenty for Russian airspace and certainly more than a few for areas of airspace such as over or around Novaya Zemlya....

If (if..) the warning has been transcribed directly then airspace above that area above 1500 metres/about 5000 feet is open to traffic, which would suggest the warning is protecting a surface or sub surface event (? army and navy playing around on exercise? )...

OTOH the Russians could be lying with the details of the warning...who knows..

I can only reiterate again that navigation warnings for that part of the world are not uncommon and are not something that in themselves that should automatically generate concern.

Thanks for your valued expertise @notimagain , so appreciated

@notimagain Thank you very much for your expertise! It honestly is very greatly appreciated.

Ugh what does this mean? I'm deleting Twitter! I'm clearly too anxious and pea-brained to even attempt to read/ understand these tweets

Don't listen to randoms on Twitter, discount and only take credible people seriously

China is much more stable than Russia.

But it is also demonizing the West and making the West into The Enemy in quite a number of ways. Quite a lot of it is deflection, I think. It really isn't safe though, but their decision making will be far more careful and far closer to the way things actually are than what seems to be Putin's weird and self-referential cabal.