Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

Did he actually say war? I thought he had still refrained from calling it that.

My non expert response to that is:
yes high energy prices are going to hurt European economies but sanctions are hurting the Russian economy more. For the long term wrenching ourselves out of dependence on Russian gas had to happen and this is accelerating the process. Otherwise they would have us over a barrel forever. So it’s a pain that has to happen at some time and this is like pulling off a plaster, doing it quickly.
As for how the war is going, many people in the west aren’t dependent on western media, we’re hearing things via Ukrainians who are constantly on the phone to people in the country. I think we would have picked something up if the reality was very different from what the western media was saying.

Shoigu confirms partial mobilisation relates to roughly 300,000 reservists.

Thanks @TheCountessofFitzdotterel

@Igotjelly no he's still calling it a special military operation

Ugh, he's just nuts. It's like one epic tantrum.

Why? He was never going to say more than he has today. Sleepiness night are possible for a future speech but not today's. It was very predictable and true to form. The reality is Putin can not escalate too fast - he has to bring the narrative with him too. Otherwise he is at greater risk internally of being deposed. However the further he escalates the higher the risk he has of being deposed.

Far from it being possible that someone 'has had a word', its much more likely that there's been last minute panic/change of heart or simple paranoia over where the address is being made.

Ask yourself a simple question : why, even now, is he only going for a partial mobilisation not full mobilisation? And what does this entail that goes further than what has already quietly been done?

This is more about internal PR than scaring anyone in the West. It's not really that much more of a statement of intent as far as the west are concerned. We are already that committed.

Whats fascinating is it comes a day after Truss said we were all in for 2023.

As for comments about the deindustrialisation of Europe. Its clear that this is going to go on for longer than Europe ever hoped or planned for. This is where some countries start to look fucking stupid and self harming (hello Germany) However I don't believe its end times. Very hard times, yes. We are on the cusp of alternatives. We aren't where we need to be, but we also are far off either. Rationing is a reality but it's also not a bad thing for Europe either, in the context of global warming and usage being maintained at current levels. The only difference is when crisis hits. A forced crisis, earlier may not be the worst thing. It focuses minds in needing to pursue a different route. And changes political strategy. I view it through the prism of it always being an inevitability that we would hit a crisis point. They only question was over when. We were going to be fucked at some point. Let's just get it over and done with.

Am I the only person who thinks that arming people who don't want to go to war is a very bad idea?

As for how the war is going, many people in the west aren’t dependent on western media, we’re hearing things via Ukrainians who are constantly on the phone to people in the country. I think we would have picked something up if the reality was very different from what the western media was saying

This.

I've had a keen interest in war reporting for many years.

The thing that's interesting is you can never polish a turd or hide an elephant. It always leaks.

There isn't anything to really be gained by lying about what's happening on the ground, apart from losing the trust of your population. If you lose the trust of your population, they are less willing to fight for you.

Zelensky has been fairly close to this.

Yes there has been psyops and some disinformation, but i dont think it's a wild departure from what's happening on the ground either - it's more been about what might be happening soon.

1917 has historical importance.

The expectation / speculation of full mobilisation (from the West) may have been just a worst case scenario? Or is this a climb down after pressure from internal advisors / stakeholders?

Or is there even enough artillery or training capacity to engage and train on full mobilisation? Maybe the logistics (as well as the politics) don’t stack up?

The trained observers think that mobilising out-of-practice reservists, training them briefly and then sending them into battle won't achieve all that much.

Russia is out of equipment, except Iranian drones, and also very short of training staff. Apparently they were already sent to the front

Even better then - logistics aren’t aligned to even train or utilise reluctant reservists and the deficit in weapons and training will not be made up any time soon.

Also are the reservists likely to be older?

The ISW have assessed the effects of partial or full mobilization a while ago

At the very least the reservists will be out of practise if itwas more than a few years ago!

You mean risky for Putin, keeping certain previous revolutions in mind?

You do have to consider that 300,000 soldiers heading to Ukraine - however badly trained and equipped - is going to be a big challenge for Ukraine though.

I hope Biden and the West hold our nerve.

I take the wider point, but the odds of there being anything close to 300,000 who actually get there are remote.

Exemptions to mobilisation for those dismissed from service for the following reasons:

• By age - upon reaching the age limit for military service;
• For health reasons - in connection with the recognition by the military medical commission as unfit for military service;
• In connection with the entry into force of a court verdict on the imposition of a sentence of imprisonment.

And a bigger challenge to Russia to actually get them there let alone use them usefully and get them home again.
They’re setting them up for slaughter.

You would think by now the Russian people will have noticed that they are not being bombed in Russia, all the destruction is in Ukraine. Would make me think hard about who is the aggressor, they must surely have noticed the soldiers that havent returned from this special; operation

In connection with the entry into force of a court verdict on the imposition of a sentence of imprisonment.

Seems this one is out the window if they had the Wagner group recruiting in prisons.

NEW TO THIS THREAD … have some past military experience - of course the Russians approached this Special Military Operation from the perspective of being able to ignore the Geneva Convention because it was not a war … hence getting upset when their own people wised up … BUT their failure to hold ground is down to the same ideology they’ve been following in justifying the reasons for trampling over an independent sovereign state … they believe they are recreating the Soviet Union and are using the same old hat of ‘Colonial War Methods’ but in the modern world of tech and tech to combat thinking … they are totally outmanoeuvred - WHAT MUST HAPPEN NOW … MORE HEAVIER AND LONGER RANGE WEAPONS MUST be made available to Ukraine to repel Russian soldiers out of the whole of Ukraine; Donbass and Crimea included - unless Russia are defeated in Ukraine … there will be no let up in rising costs and it won’t matter who is in NO10 until Putin is thrown over - except if it’s the Libdems power sharing with Labour that would be a disaster for all things military, unless the west stands firmer with Ukraine NOW to see off this aggression before May 2024. History shows that liberalism always leads to defence spending cuts and organisational disarray and when there’s a dictator somewhere in the world or a USA president who thinks his personality is more important than NATO … as we can NOW see both the Obama and Trump years allowed a Russian monster to wreak genocidal havoc!! AND NOW ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE PAYING DEARLY FOR IT - Hoping Putin and his generals finally keep a long awaited appointment at The Hague … not least for the shooting down of a civilian airline … the grotesque murder of Alexander Litvinenko in London and an innocent bystander, Dawn Sturgess in Salisbury - there’s a longer list - time is running out for Putin 😱

Yes and I suspect that this cohort will be well aware of that compared to the teenage rookies who believed they were on a training exercise.

Also beyond the angst / trauma / power of the Russian mothers of teenage conscripts - this mobilised cohort will likely be fathers economically supporting families and established communities and their absence and loss will be very apparent and possibly resisted.

we can certainly hope that time is running out for him!!

I'm guessing it means being in prison means you aren't automatically included in mobilisation? Ie that recruitment involving people volunteering is something different.

It will be interesting to see how long that holds up for though. On the one hand, if prisoners who are otherwise conscription eligible are exempted, but the regime is evidently fine with people going from prison to the army, just conscripting them directly cuts out the middle man. On the other hand even the Russians probably get that at least some prisoners would be much more trouble than they're worth, regardless of previous military experience, so they might prefer the process to be discretionary.