Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

in haste

twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1572465816741847045

Putin's speech and a brief summary. I haven't got time to see it now but the summary indicates waffle.

If that really is all it is, I think delaying it was more of him jerking us around.

Partial mobilisation announced

The West is trying to weaken and divide up Russia, we'll do all we can to protect our people, "The main goals of the special military operation remain unchanged. The Luhansk People's Republic has been completely liberated, and the Donetsk People's Republic has been partly liberated."

Partial mobilisation: those in the reserves or with relevant military experience will be subject to conscription

“Only citizens who are currently in the reserve and, above all, those who served in the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience, will be subject to conscription.“

Expresses support for the referendums

"Russia can't give up people close to her to be torn apart by executioners and fail to respond to their desire to determine their own fate."

Kyiv wanted peace but the west wants to destroy and break up Russia, so this is being framed as war with the west as per

Putin: "I want to remind the West that we also have nuclear weapons, and that in many cases, our nuclear weapons are more modern than theirs. We will use them if needed, I am not bluffing."

West is using "nuclear blackmail" against Russia.

"If its territorial integrity is threatened Russia will use all the means at its disposal. This is not a bluff."

Absolute waffle, nothing of any real substance other than ‘partial’ mobilisation.

Suspect delaying was either a power play or it’s a different speech to what there might have been last night?

End of speech. I wonder if something was walked back here from yesterday. Anyway, partial mobilisation and the referenda are going ahead. West is to blame, Ukraine has committed atrocities against
Civilians, Russia must protect its people. In summary.

What are the chances someone gave him a huge word of warning last night i.e Xi? Or would that have been made public if it were the case?

Agree @Igotjelly but he doesn't seem so convinced he's losing. Saw this the other day and didn't post but would be interested in thoughts: twitter.com/mtmalinen/status/1571762458934804482?s=46&t=E2QDuo7-11tDRcBYQWZFeQ

Not Xi but poss EU or US leadership? OR russia intuited the reaction having put out feelers and when the response wasn't good reframed?

I get the vibes of someone having spoken in his ear and to my mind only Xi (or the Chinese more generally) would hold any sway.

I personally just think it was power play after being butt hurt he wasn’t invited to the UN.

Mm. He knows he's loosing. He's flailing.

I suspect Biden has longlaid plans for what happens with a volatile and desperate Putin and he's got ways of handling it

Putin's doing the little-boy-who-cried-wolf thing with nuclear again

I suspect that Mr Xi Jingping is going to get quietly involved to calm Putin down at some point

Cross-post sorry!

Ultimately we were right yesterday: the sham referendums will happen and then if ukraine (the west) attack that (now Russian) territory that gives russia carte blanche to escalate. Threat is nuclear but as Lawrence Freedman points out, there are lots of other means at Russia's disposal too

Agree that Xi and Modi were clear about their discomfort with what's happening in Ukraine and that nuclear use wouldn't be acceptable. I hope you're right. Mind you, China is another worry for another day

It wouldn't have been made public no. Putin would not have taken a public warning well and I don't think the Chinese would publicly rebuke an ally

I think Xi is a lot more level headed. I'm hoping he's the one that prevents Putin doing anything absolutely stupid. I

He really is a little wanker though! Barely slept last night wracking my brains for what he might say! Guess as psychological warfare it worked!

I guess this means all the refusniks and those who had previously served in Ukraine and didn't sign contracts to renew their service are the ones who are likely to be called up first.

Thats on top of all the ill disciplined prisoners who have been signed up.

And they are going to be equipped with wooden swords and plastic toy shields and drive armed trikes.

Meanwhile he is annexing two regions of Ukraine, with no mention of Kherson. That means he can call up all the remaining men there or shoot them on the spot as traitors. Not that Russia haven't already been doing this.

The only really significant bit here is the call up of those who didn't want to fight and trying to make it look like Ukraine is attacking Russia, by stealing Ukraine and then shouting 'you hit me'.

That and deciding it probably is a war. And Russians may be permitted to call it a war. Not a war with Ukraine mind. But a war with the west for Russian survival.

Its an escalation but also the stench of desparation is overwhelming.

Darth Putin at dartgputinkgb
Day 210 of my 3 day war. I've gone from people wondering if I'd mobilize, annex & declare war to people wondering if I'm alive.

I remain a master strategist

Thanks @Ijsbear. I wasn't sure if phone calls between countries had to be made public or not or whether they'd be detected somehow. Good to know!

Mobilising those that don't want to fight might backfire surely?

Yes I think so. He'll have an even bigger target on his back now I'd expect.