Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

See attached

Matches comments by @Fladdermus

Good thread about this: twitter.com/sabfis3/status/1572225453108400129?s=46&t=XmJ-B5E63-RRg6wnclmAkA

Lawrence Freedman on nuclear use by Russia

samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear?sd=pf

Putin due to speak any second. Will try to keep on top of this and post what I can

Speech has been delayed - will keep an eye

Hopefully died on his way to make the statement.

Sky news is reporting he’s started his address

Seems like a good time to check back in with you all..

Thanks for keeping the threads going.

Weird. Still no Putin and reports RT has deleted its tweet saying he would speak at 8 (6 UK time)

Sky news also dropped the notification he was starting after I posted

@autumn1610 Same but on their homepage I think it's still visible. Now has some speculation as below lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/kongoecho/status/1572282045035945985?refsrc=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1572282045035945985%7Ctwgr%5E545520809afdc6ac0e2f573d8590627acf4f4c19%7Ctwcon%5Es11&refurl=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Fukraine-war-latest-news-putins-forces-clearly-in-panic-russia-12541713

Putin's assurances that he wants this war to end as soon as possible feels ominous as opposed to positive. He isn't going to back down is he?

He is escalating. Worst case scenario unthinkable, best case it's an escalate to de-escalate strategy

Do we think this escalation is on account of increasing internal pressures by hardliners? Or is Putin still in the driving seat? I wonder where the pressure lies for Putin? Is it from the global arena or does it come from within his own rats' nest? I wouldn't be sleeping so well if I was him.

I feel sick.

Both.

And from every pinch point direction I think.

It seems to have a momentum now - with the regional state officials speaking out in St Petersburg etc

A humiliated narcissist / psychopath is a worry - but he is likely surrounded by other psychos who have been plotting their next move for sometime.

This is the way it always happens.

I think he was trolling the UN general assembly meeting, which he wasn't invited to speak at. He doesn't like being ignored.

There may well be some sort of public pronouncement on the way at some point. If he does annex the DPR and LPR that would give him legal cover to mobilize, as "Russia" would then be under attack.

One interesting point about mobilization - the need for men at the front has brought a lot of their military trainers and military academy instructors into the fight, and many have been wounded or killed. I doubt that Russia can provide anything like adequate training for a lot of new soldiers.

This is all so scary.

Biden rumoured to make an announcement tmrw about kicking russia out of the UN so this might also be relevant

Anonymous account suggests the pre-recorded speech has been pulled because of some negotiations that have already taken place or something bigger happening on a global scale. Doesnt say what this might be

mobile.twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1572294706071212032 video of Putin

It is unnerving but try not to worry which is easier said than done. As @Ijsbear always says the best brains are on it.

Mobilisation won't achieve anything. There's no officers to train people, no training centres, no time, etc.

I think this is purely for domestic audience, last throw of the dice. He has no good options left.

Sky has issued an update saying it’s delayed until tomorrow