Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

Adjusting ear plugs was his cover because it would churlish to go 'I'm not listening I'm not listening' whilst on video. I doubt he wanted a clearer sound.

I have too much time on my hands

mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1571956058200969217 the Wagner website has been hacked

I've previously quoted or linked to analyses by Ben Hodges (yes, I am a fan), former CO of US Army Europe. I've just found a video by him on Youtube assessing the situation in Ukraine with a focus on the strategic situation for the Russian Navy. Many of the events he describes will be familiar to anyone who regularly reads this thread, but there's some great perspective and analysis here too. It's well worth a ten-minute watch.

Ben Hodges makes the point that the Russian Black Sea Fleet (other than submarines) is hiding behind Crimea and will probably no longer be safe once Ukraine pushes into and past Kherson and Crimea comes within range of the HIMARS.

I would have thought with long range missiles, almost every naval vessel in the world sailing near to shore will be at risk from being in range of missile attacks. I guess the vessels will have air defences. Is that enough? What does a navy do? Aircraft carriers in the high seas? Sorry, really showing my ignorance here.

Nothing to be sorry about, it's a complex situation. You're quite right; antiship missiles have completely changed naval warfare. Navies avoid coastal waters for just that reason. The answer is deploying lots of sophisticated anti-missile defenses and traveling in groups. The US developed the Ticonderoga class frigates equipped with the Aegis missile defense system. Aircraft carriers have an advantage as they don't have to approach the coast to project combat power, and they are surrounded by a picket line of Aegis-equipped ships.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Combat_System

It combines a very powerful and sophisticated radar system with air defense missiles and something called a CIWS:

The navy is also developing directed energy (think lasers) weapons for air defense.

@MissConductUS thanks for explaining! That makes sense. The naval vessels will need watertight (ha!) air defences. I like the imagery of a picket fence of Aegis. The Aegis/CIWS looks and sounds impressive, just the thing Ukraine could do with to protect its infrastructure, like the nuclear power stations, dams and such.

I could not help noticing that CIWS looks like a minion ...

It also looks like R2D2.😍

Oh yes, R2D2, I forgot.

Actually I just realised the sticky outy thing makes it a Dalek from Dr Who

The ISW longer takeaway is scathing about Russia's actions atm
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-19

ISW Key Takeaways

Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which are not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers.

Ukrainian counter-offensive successes are degrading morale among Russian units that were regarded as elite prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are likely continuing limited and localized offensive operations across the Oskil River and along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line.

Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to strike Russian military, transportation, and logistics assets in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 19: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and in northern Kherson Oblast near Olhine.

The size of volunteer units Russia can generate is likely decreasing.

+++

⚡️Mayor: Russian shelling leaves some areas in occupied Enerhodar without water supply.

⚡️Official: Russian forces step up ‘filtration’ in occupied Mariupol, arrest local residents.

⚡️ Kremlin's militants imprison OSCE employee for 13 years. (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe) According to Russian media, Kremlin's proxies in occupied Luhansk “sentenced” Dmytro Shabanov, a security assistant at the OSCE mission in Luhansk Oblast arrested in April, to 13 years in prison for "treason."

⚡️Mayor: Explosions reported at airfield in Russian-occupied Melitopol.

⚡️German, Dutch leaders pledge further military support for Ukraine.
Following a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the Netherlands and Germany would continue supporting Ukraine via Dutch-German military cooperation.

⚡️ Governor: Most bodies exhumed from mass burial site in Izium were civilians.

⚡️Germany to send 4 more Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers to Ukraine.

⚡️ Germany, Slovenia agree to transfer 28 M-55S tanks to Ukraine.
In a phone call on Sept. 19, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed on an “exchange” in which Slovenia will receive military equipment from Germany in return for transferring tanks to Ukraine

⚡️ Russian media: Russian proxies in Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts demand sham ‘referendums’ to join Russia.

⚡️Judges seek to fire Supreme Court's deputy chairman over Russian citizenship.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Turkey's Isbank suspends use of Russian Mir cards.
Turkey’s largest private lender Isbank has suspended transactions through the Russian payment system Mir, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 19.
The decision came after the U.S. Treasury warned against financial institutions cooperating with the Russian operator.

⚡️ Ukraine to provide Ethiopia, Somalia with 50,000 metric tons of free wheat.

⚡️Digital Transformation Minister: Ukrainian IT Army hacks Wagner Group.
“We have all personal data of mercenaries! Every executioner, murderer, and rapist will be severely punished,” Fedorov wrote. [apparently the cyber war is hotting up since the Kharkiv retreat by the Russians]

⚡️Ukrainian forces sink Russian military barge on Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️General Staff: Russian proxies in Donetsk Oblast seek to mobilize 500 factory workers.
The General Staff also reported that men are no longer allowed to leave Russian-occupied Crimea without the permission of military commissariats.

⚡️ UK to spend at least $2.6 billion on Ukraine's war effort in 2023.

▪️Ukraine receives from Russia the bodies of the dead in a terrible state, in which it is almost impossible to recognize a person by eye. Sometimes it is not even possible to take material for DNA analysis. Olena Tolkacheva, head of the patronage service of the Azov regiment, said this in an interview with Ukrayinska Pravda.

💬 Ukraine is lobbying the UN General Assembly for the adoption of a resolution that will become the basis for the creation of an international compensation mechanism, which could lead to the seizure of Russian state assets abroad in the amount of up to $300 billion, — The Guardian

📌 Occupants in Kherson are actively looking for partisans and checking the phones of civilians
According to the international intelligence community InformNapalm, the invaders are looking for active citizens who resist the occupation by entering the street from different directions and searching every apartment. In addition, they launch a drone for aerial surveillance. The occupiers check the house by floor, demand phones from the owners.
If there are suspiciously few materials in the gadget or it is reset to factory settings, it is sent for verification to specialists who recover deleted data.

📊 17% of Ukrainians who left their homes due to the war have already returned from abroad — Gradus Research

❗️ About 50 women who left the Mariupol plant "Azovstal" are held in Russian captivity. Two of them are pregnant

❌ More than a thousand explosive objects were seized in Izium and Balakliia today, September 19
There are especially a lot of PFM-1 mines (so-called "butterfly" mines), which are prohibited by all international conventions, said the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

Less personnel losses, but one plane down.

🤝 The Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal met with the King of the United Kingdom, Charles III, and invited him to Ukraine
(that was quick work!)

⚖️ The European Court of Human Rights to be headed by a woman for the first time
Irish judge Síofra O’Leary will take office on November 1, 2022. She taught law at various European universities for many years before being appointed judge for Ireland

🗣 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Ukraine and Russia managed to reach an agreement on the exchange of 200 prisoners of war.

⚠️ Iran continues to supply drones to Russia
Yesterday, the Iranian IL-76 EP-PUS cargo aircraft of Pouya Air arrived in Moscow for another visit. It is already the third flight from Tehran to Vnukovo International Airport in 10 days.

From the Guardian 15 minutes ago:

	Ukraine has recaptured a village close to the eastern city of Lysychansk, in a small but symbolic victory that means Russia no longer has full control of the Luhansk region, one of Russian president Vladimir Putin&rsquo;s key war aims. Luhansk&rsquo;s governor, Serhiy Haidai, said Ukraine&rsquo;s armed forces were in &ldquo;complete control&rdquo; of <a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/maps/place/Bilohorivka,+Luhansk+Oblast,+93310/@48.927134,38.1171685,11z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x41200c585773dbe1:0x8961fec000b5c05c!8m2!3d48.926456!4d38.2459006" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bilohorivka</a>. &ldquo;It&rsquo;s a suburb of Lysychansk. Soon we will drive these scumbags out of there with a broom,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;Step by step, centimetre by centimetre, we will liberate our entire land from the invaders.&rdquo;
	The pace of Ukrainian forces&rsquo; advance the north-east had thrown Russian forces into a &ldquo;panic&rdquo;, Ukraine&rsquo;s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in his nightly address. Zelenskiy said he was now focused on &ldquo;speed&rdquo; in liberated areas. &ldquo;The speed at which our troops are moving. The speed in restoring normal life,&rdquo; he said.

And from the Telegraph a bit more about that exchange of prisoners Ijsbear just mentioned, Erdogan suggesting Putin is having doubts about Russia's ability to win this f*#@ing disastrous war he started and May want to negotiate peace. Pity for him that Ukraine are now on the offensive and may not want to tow the line on peace talks allowing Russia to keep their ill gotten gains.

9:51am
Russia, Ukraine agree to swap 200 prisoners
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to swap 200 prisoners in one of the largest exchanges of the seven-month war, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told US television.
Erdogan made the announcement after talks last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of a regional summit in Uzbekistan.
Erdogan did not provide full details about the swap, calling the people being exchanged "hostages" and not saying how many there were from each side.
"Two hundred hostages will be exchanged upon agreement between the parties. I think a significant step will be taken forward," Erdogan told PBS television late Monday.
NATO member Turkey has tried to stay neutral in the conflict, supplying combat drones to Kyiv and shying away from Western-led sanctions against Moscow.
Erdogan said he had the "impression" that Putin was willing to end the war.
"We had very extensive discussions and he is actually showing me that he is willing to end this as soon as possible," Erdogan said.
"That was my impression because the way things are going right now are quite problematic."

Some bad news from Sky News:

Referendums to be held in Russian-occupied regions
We're now hearing that further referendums in occupied regions will be held by separatists in the coming weeks.
Reports say Russian-installed separatists in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine will stage a referendum on joining Russia on September 23 to 27.
Separatists in Luhansk also claimed on Tuesday they intend to hold a referendum on joining Russia on the same dates.

Delurking to ask - in the current circumstances why is this "bad news" rather than "who cares?" news?
As in: - Russia doesn't control all of the Donbas oblast and (as of yesterday) doesn't even control all of Luhansk. Or Kherson. So they can't even claim that a referendum would be legitimate for the whole of these areas. Plus, who is going to recognise any such vote who doesn't already support Russia wholeheartedly? Is it going to sway any of the neutrals? Won't everybody assume that most of those votes are coerced? Anybody who doesn't is probably so convinced about the war's correctness (ie Russian stooge) that it doesn't make a difference. And if anything, won't it just blur the lines so that the US might become more relaxed about Ukraine attacking parts of Russia given that what is Russia and what is not becomes less clear?
Maybe I am completely barking up the wrong true, but all I can see is that it is going to cost Russia money and energy to do something that is not really directly helpful to their war effort and won't actually achieve anything that anyone will believe. Can someone explain why I am wrong?

*tree

It's bad news because Russia could use the results of the fake referendum to justify escalation.

The hawkish Dmitry Medvedev has said the following:

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top allies said on Tuesday (20 September) he favoured holding referendums in two eastern Ukrainian regions in order to formally make them part of Russia, a move that would seriously escalate Moscow’s confrontation with the West.
The statement by Dmitry Medvedev, a former president who is currently deputy chairman of the Security Council, marks a hardening of Russian rhetoric on Ukraine and is the strongest sign yet that the Kremlin is considering going ahead with a plan that Ukraine and the West have said would be illegal.
He made his comments as Putin ponders his next steps in a nearly seven-month-old conflict that has triggered the biggest confrontation with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and after a battlefield defeat in northeast Ukraine.
The leaders of the Russian-backed self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) and Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) a day earlier discussed combining their efforts to hold referendums on joining Russia.
Officials in the Russian-controlled southern Kherson region on Tuesday also requested a referendum on joining Russia.
Medvedev suggested that incorporating the LPR and DPR into Russia – collectively known as the Donbas – would be an irreversible step once completed. Anyone then attacking them would be assaulting Russia itself which would, under its own law, be entitled to respond in self-defence.
“Encroachment onto Russian territory is a crime which allows you to use all the forces of self–defence,” Medvedev said in a post on Telegram. “This is why these referendums are so feared in Kyiv and the West.”
No future Russian leader be able to constitutionally reverse the outcome of the votes, he wrote.
Washington and the West have so far been careful not to supply Ukraine with weapons that could be used to shell Russian territory, and Medvedev’s interpretation of what de facto annexation would legally mean from Moscow’s point of view looked like a future warning to the West.
“They (the referendums) would completely change the vector of Russia’s development for decades. And not just of our country. The geopolitical transformation of the world would be irreversible once the new territories were incorporated into Russia,” he wrote.
It is unclear how the referendums would be held given that Russian and Russian-backed forces control only around 60% of the Donetsk region while Ukrainian forces are trying to retake Luhansk.
Pro-Russian officials have previously said the referendums could be held electronically and that everything was technically ready for them to go ahead.

From Euroactiv

PMK

@DesdamonasHandkerchief But how is Russia going to escalate? They are already throwing everything they can at Ukraine save nuclear weapons and full mobilisation. And they could throw the nuclear weapons with or without these referenda. Just as they invaded without the referenda, so they can do this. They attacked Kyiv without referenda.
And the same for full mobilisation: ie drafting in people from eg Moscow. But again, they can do this without these referenda. Now maybe the idea is to pursuade those within Russia that mobilisation is justified? But are the people who are not keen on mobilisation going to be pursuaded by these referenda? Aren't they supposedly worried about middle class Moscovites? Why are the people they are worried about not supporting a full draft suddenly going to be persuaded by some clearly fake referenda?
The West will keep saying that the territory is Ukraine, and Russia will keep claiming it is or ought to be part of Russia, that is why they invaded. They will say the referenda provide "proof" the West will say it doesn't. I just can't see at this point how it really makes anything more dangerous than it currently is - all the escalation options are already there. And the people in Moscow no more want to be attacked or drafted to protect the people of the Donbass than they currently do whatever the people of the Donbass supposedly vote for.

Medvedev suggested that incorporating the LPR and DPR into Russia – collectively known as the Donbas – would be an irreversible step once completed. Anyone then attacking them would be assaulting Russia itself which would, under its own law, be entitled to respond in self-defence.

I just don't get this. The key issue it seems to me is what Ukraine manages to hold/take in their counter offensives. If they manage to take these areas back, and the Russian army cannot stop them, it will not be irreversable. If the Ukranians can't manage this then it is likely irreversable in the long term - regardless of referenda. And if the Russian army is losing (which it appears to be), escalation options are the only things available to it with or without referenda.

Everything you say is true, however this point you made is what concerns me:

They are already throwing everything they can at Ukraine save nuclear weapons and full mobilisation.

I wonder if Putin and his hawks are looking for 'concrete' justification to put before the Russian people for serious escalation.

I hope I'm wrong, and I further hope Xi Jinping made it clear to Putin during his recent meeting that China's support of Russia was predicated on nuclear weapons remaining firmly off the table and these were part of his 'questions and concerns'.

I was thinking the same. The Russian constitution only allows use of nuclear weapons if Russia itself is under attack. Which makes it look like he's trying to twist reality to justify using them.

But what would he gain by using them? Ukraine is literally too close to home. He'd cross a line that would increase a growing pariah status. It might be the case that other countries are still dealing with Russia but look at how often these leaders have been keeping him waiting and withholding outright vocal support - he's already becoming a hot potato.
He'd have far more to lose. And I'm not convinced Putin is not a rational actor.

My hope would be that the escalation of narratives about fighting with the west that we've recently seen on Russian state tv combined with erdogan's recent statements suggest that maybe Putin is looking for a way out. Well, that'd be the optimistic take at least. But I'm starting to learn not to be optimistic :-(

Oh well fuck. White House reports they think Putin is preparing to mobilise: twitter.com/anonopsse/status/1572263733061099523?s=46&t=XmJ-B5E63-RRg6wnclmAkA

If Putin needed a justification for an attack on Russian soil to justify whatever retaliation lies he has in store, Ukraine has already said they will reclaim Crimea. Sooner or later, it is going to happen. 'Annexation' of Kherson is probably for an internal audience. Putin might be making another movie ...