Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

It's an emotional time and especially if you are an empathetic person. Emotions get too much of a bad rep. I love these threads because people have largely gotten on well inspite of a difference in opinion.

I appreciate this thread so much.

Emotions are high, we’re only human. Trying to make sense of this horrid situation and looking for a glimmer of hope each day with the wonderful updates we get to read.

@Ijsbear she’s done a great job with your nails, I always focus on cuticles - top notch!

@Ijsbear Lovely manicure. Delicate and tasteful.

Thanks as always for the takeaways. Reading intently.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/18/olena-zelenska-ukraine-first-lady-rare-interview-family-under-threat

lovely interview with Olena Zelenska.

mobile.twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1538211686859132929 weapons destroyed

Olena Zelenska sounds so normal and down-to-earth. She and the children are still in Ukraine, but moved around a lot, with bodyguards. She and the President clearly did not expect the invasion as they were together on the night of the invasion and she hadn't even packed a suitcase yet. Not allowed social media or electronics. Living in isolation. They knew each other as children. Zelensky is the jokey performer and she the serious and steady one. She describes a certain discipline and steel under pressure in Zelensky where others may have given up. He also has great communications skills and feels all the emotions that he projects. She is not surprised he rose to the task.

"2 days ago, at least 1 Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile hit a large RU/Separatist ammunition storage depot in Krasnyi Luch, #Luhansk Oblast. It was filled with artillery shells intended for the LNR "2nd Army Corps"; which now faces shortages."

Great hit by Ukraine. Footage shown. Was apparently detonating for hours. A lot of Russian weapons and ammo went up in smoke.

Great thread / article on the average Russian's worldview @mdmitri91: twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1538251139791179776?s=21&t=r2g5os_9PFb6HvRnOA630g

I thought it was a good interview. She comes across as very down to earth and likeable.

I was not convinced by the addition of the posed fashion bits by the sand bags and so on, but that's on the Guardian, not on her.

@MagicFox 08:13
Great thread / article on the average Russian's worldview @mdmitri91: twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1538251139791179776?s=21&t=r2g5os_9PFb6HvRnOA630g

It is, it is fascinating.Our sense of the world feels very different.

America may possibly convey a similar sense of invincibility to its people militarily but never one derived in the same way as an ancient society in a vast land. There is no sense of it being a complete world in its own right, with other countries still within it all speaking the same language and belonging to the same country. Also the US has the cult of the importance of the individual over anyone else so it could never be the same.

Maybe Russians think NATO must entail the same monolithic strength ( even if they could not be more wrong). Maybe this is why they hate it.)

He said the West comes up every single day on Russian TV. They are obsessed with it as the enemy, and this takes their minds off their problems. So having a war now may be necessary to feed the people’s sense of security in being who they are.

I heard on the radio this morning the UN and Johnson saying this war will go on for years and years.

This news is awful, and means disaster. Russia obviously just wants it. This all seems like a nightmare. Maybe even those little stolen Ukrainian children transported to Russia will grow up and be sent to fight Ukrainians on day.

For us, it's person that counts.

In Russia, it's the collective.

I wonder if we'll ever understand each other.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces secured minor gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk and likely advanced into Metolkine, but Russian operations remain slow.

Russian forces continued efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducted ground and artillery strikes along the highway.

Russian forces seek to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of railway lines around Kharkiv City used to supply Russian offensive operations toward Slovyansk.

Russian forces did not take any confirmed actions along the Southern Axis and continue to face partisan pressure in occupied areas of southern Ukraine.

+++

UK int update (pic) mentions Ukr desertions. This is the first time it's been mentioned though there have been twitter rumours. Russian problems with morale remain much greater though.

+++

Kyiv Independent telegram channel (cant remember if ive said it before but this paper is really good)

⚡️ Ambassador: Germany to send additional howitzers to Ukraine in coming weeks.
German Ambassador to Ukraine Anka Feldhusen reportedly said in a televised address on June 18 that MLR systems are also on their way.
She said that HIMARS are currently being assembled in Europe and will be provided to Ukraine on behalf of Germany, the U.S. and the U.K.

⚡️ Governor: Russian forces threaten resistance with death penalty in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Oleksandr Starukh said on June 18 that Russian forces are attempting to suppress local resistance with the introduction of the death penalty. “Ukrainian guerillas will continue to resist,” Starukh said.

(this was always going to happen. It won't make a whole lot of difference I think except make resentment and hatred for the invaders even stronger. It may however make the civilian population's lives even harder).

⚡️ Ukraine’s military strikes cluster of Russian forces in Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported on June 18 that it carried out four air raids in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces killed 28 Russian troops and destroyed one T-62 tank, one radar station, one fuel tanker, and other military vehicles.

⚡️ Russian media: Azov commanders taken to Russia for so-called ‘investigative actions.’

⚡️ Ukraine’s military: Russia reinforces Black Sea fleet.
Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” said that 28 Kalibr missiles are ready for combat, placed upon two surface ships and three submarines. Around 20 missiles were reported on June 17.

+++

(The losses are staggering now. There was a rumour that the leaked accurate-ish Russian-collated figures were even higher, around 37k killed and 100k wounded. This could be rumour. The US have said though that while their own confirmed kills of Russians are lower, they are not on the ground themselves and they believe the Ukr estimates are accurate).

+++

UkraineNOW

❗️ The situation at the front is difficult, Ukraine is far from ending the war. "The situation on the front line is tense, difficult, and I am not one of those who consider the Russian army weak. They have very large resources, and they brought them here," said Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.
According to him, the Russian army has an advantage in artillery and heavy weapons. But this does not frighten Ukrainian fighters.
"We hold our ground. From time to time we conduct counterattacks. But the war is still going on, and we are far from ending it," said the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council.

🏘 Ukraine and the United Kingdom, together with representatives of British business, signed a Memorandum on Infrastructure Rebuilding of Ukraine
About 30% of Ukraine's infrastructure has been destroyed. It is gradually being restored

💡Slovak Minister of Defence Jaroslav Naď has asked the Czech Republic for assistance in temporarily defending the country's airspace
He said this during a visit to his Czech counterpart Jana Černochová. According to Naď, in addition to the Czechs, Polish forces will also be involved in the defence. Chernokhova replied that negotiations on the terms of this assistance were underway.

(Russia is consistently pushing many countries with incursions. I think we need to do the same back, now).

What do we make of Sir Patrick Sanders comments about the UK armed forces needing to be ready to fight in Europe for the first time since 1941. The usual rags reporting as a warning of WW3 but I wonder if it’s more about readying the army for less cuts, more troops and deployment to NATO boundaries.

There are confirmed reports of Russians consistently violating several countries' airspace and the Finnish and Swedish negotiators had to be evacuated from one island meeting when Russian warships started getting close.

I am starting to think that the West and NATO should unite and do the same back. It's an escalation but Russia capitalizes on -any- weakness. You can't win in a cooperative way; either you let them get away with all these mini aggressions, in which case they will escalate as indeed they have done, or you stand up to them and they use it against you claiming -you- are the aggressor.

When you are dealing with an abusive person you have to state your boundaries strongly and hold to them.

Completely agree @Ijsbear

Personally Igotjelly I think we do need to be prepared yes.

wow

📱 Microsoft has banned Russians from downloading Windows 10 and Windows 11 from its website

The portal issues "There is a problem with your request" message. Users are also unable to download installation assistant utilities for the operating systems.

@Ijsbear totally agree.

@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat that was a very good nutshell. Personally, I think the issue is that both sides over emphasise the importance of the collective vs the individual. Sometimes I feel we have a very self centred mentality here in the UK, not helped by social media, and there are a lot of lonely people as a result.

www.express.co.uk/news/world/1627775/Vladimir-Putin-Russia-surrender-forces-military-Ukraine-Luhansk-east-Zelensky-video-vn

Breaking news from the Express apparently - Putin dealt devastating blow after mass surrender of Russian troops on frontline - W

Well..not seen much considered response yet.

My ten pence worth : He's the new Chief of the General Staff so you'd expect him to say something newsworthy...I'm not sure it's a case of "readying the Army," the UK Forces in general have been ready for less cuts and have wanted more spending for decades, I think it's more a case of readying the politicians and readying the taxpayers.

There might also be a case also that he is making the point that if you join the Forces you have to be ready to fight, engage with the enemy and kill them etc. That's what the job is about (regardless of rank/trade etc).

There have been some criticisms around that recently some high up in HM Forces have perhaps been more interested (for political/promotion reasons) in focusing effort on inclusivity and social issues, lots of emphasis on humanitarian missions and good works. The basic idea that the Forces existed to fight wars if needed was in danger of being forgotten or ignored by many people....time for a refocus....

So personally I don't think he is saying anything alarming, frightening or new, just maybe issuing a reminder to some people.

BTW, background reading - a new Royal United Service Institute USI paper on Industry and warfare...

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

Except that on looking more closely it says this is of 14 soldiers... be great if more join them....

Great news

Hopefully this will provide a much needed morale boost.

@notimagain · Today 11:16

That article about the current capability of the west in terms of arms is very informative, and worrying.

It looks as though by comparison Russia has a far less limited supply, especially if China were to augment it.

One the one hand it makes you think we must open more arms factories and train more skilled workers at once - and never again let up on the production the way we have been. On the other, I personally can’t help wishing every piece of weaponry and ammunition in the existence could just be blown up.

@herecomesthsun esthsun · Today 11:16
Except that on looking more closely it says this is of 14 soldiers... be great if more join them...

Yes.
Sadly, I think Putin won’t see this as being the ‘devastating blow’ the headline says it is.
But the news is cheering none the less.

I can well believe some have but it would be nice if it was 4000, rather than 14 soldiers! :)