Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Russian power, it’s worth remembering, has gone through fitful cycles of stagnation, decline and resurgence; it would be wise to avoid triumphalism and complacency. Mr. Putin made a mistake but not necessarily a fatal one. As the historian Stephen Kotkin noted_, Russia has a remarkable historical capacity for reconstitution. The West’s relatively brief respite from great power competition with Russia in the wake of the Cold War constitutes, he reminded us, “a historical blink of an eye." In other words: Russia is a problem for the West, and it’s not going anywhere."

Pasted from the previous thread. Whilst Russia is not going anywhere, it's done a good job of degrading its own potential through crony corruption, underinvestment and a collapse in the birthrate.

BBC News:

French President Emmanuel Macron says he told Vladimir Putin he had committed a "historic and fundamental error" by invading Ukraine and was now "isolated".
"I think, and I told him, that he made a historic and fundamental error for his people, for himself and for history," he said in an interview with French regional media.
Macron also did not rule out a visit to Kyiv soon.
The French leader has had far more contact with Putin since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, compared to most of his Western counterparts.
The last reported call was a three-way conversation on Saturday between Macron, Putin, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Thanks for the new thread @MagicFox

I am holding out for Ukraine turning some more tables and surprising us with their cunning and tenacity.

Place marking as I learn so much on these threads. Very much supporting & praying for Ukraine.

““Advanced Russian weapons and communications systems have been built around Western chips," said Damien Spleeters, one of the researchers at Conflict Armament Research, which is engaged in the identification and tracking of weapons and ammunition.”

Yes, absolutely,
The chips essential for these weapons are duplicated in China or other Asian nations, so are freely pirated by all and sundry, its up to the developers to protect their intellectual property, because it will be reproduced by others freely.

This is a simple idea that could save many lives or avoid people being maimed, especially as children will be able to understand what to look out for.

Explosive hazard awareness cards for Ukraine on Twitter: "We have 9200 packs of our Explosive Hazard Awareness cards for #Ukraine at #RAF Brize Norton waiting to be flown to Poland. These cards save lives. Please help us get more printed t.co/MJrEgQAQfe t.co/AnFke9E7WD" / Twitter

mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23UKRAINE
mobile.twitter.com/UkraineCards/status/1531750581529878528

Those are a brillaint idea Scrolling

Thanks for the new thread and all the analysis/commentary.

@Ijsbear Thanks for your reply lsjbear on the last thread about tensions between ethnic Russian Ukrainians and ethnic Ukrainians and I am sorry about my very slow response, things have been really busy. I don't know how peace talks will go or what is possible, but the referendums in Donbas in 2014 were in relation to autonomy re use of the Russian language, not about separatism or independence, and they were therefore misreported, according to Baud (ex Nato), and what I wonder is whether or not something along the lines of Wales/Scotland would work. Wales have their own language and their own parliament, but sit peacefully within the UK and alongside England. They are part of the England and Wales jurisdiction and also have their own autonomous legislation made by their parliament. Scotland has its own laws and courts but again live alongside the rest of the UK peacefully.

I might be very wrong, but my impression is that notwithstanding the losses you mention (or because of losses possibly, and there were of course significant losses before Feb 22) the tensions will remain. And I agree with you it is a thorny issue. There are reports of tensions within refugee groups in Europe. I think that a lot of work and commitment would need to go into rebuilding relationships and increasing awareness of both sides' concerns for anything to work long term.

Within some Ukrainian refugee groups who are in Europe, I meant, ie between ethnic Russian Ukrainians and ethnic Ukrainians.

Thanks

Thank you fir the new thread.

@MagicFox thanks for the new thread.

Taiwan has banned the export of high tech chips to Russia and Belarus in response to the Ukraine invasion. China can probably compensate but it will be unable to fill the shortfall in the advanced semiconductors that only Taiwan and the US can produce.

And ASML who are essential to the process of chip manufacturing. I don't think it's actually all that easy to produce knock-off versions of the top end chips.

Ive been told though that China encourages Western companies to build factories there with all the Western know-how, then after 3 years takes over the factory ... and all the knowledge that is stored therein. Also China mines a lot of the rare minerals etc that are needed.

earth.org/rare-earth-mining-has-devastated-chinas-environment/

In the very long term, if China chose not to sell those minerals to the companies that produce the chips .... well, it's not only Russia that'd be struggling. I don't think that the West has thought this through.

for new thread.

Ijsbear thank you so much for your continuing "spam".

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1532823505968013314 Ukraine pushing back in Sievierdonetsk. Now have control of 50%of the city

Unbelievable. Oh wow. Cannot wait for Ukraine to be properly armed because they could do so much more.

ljsbear, appreciate your updates. Not spam at all.

I find it so frustrating that the West are not doing more to support Ukraine.

I simply hope more is going on behind the scenes that we are unaware of.

For example, the release of the weapons they need is not slow through lack of will but because Ukrainians are being trained covertly how to use them.

I cannot fathom how anyone cannot see how pivotal this situation is in geopolitical terms.

We absolutely cannot allow Russia to win this war. If that means power shortages in Europe and reducing our own supplies of military equipment, then so be it.

It's heartbreaking to see the devastation and loss of life caused by the ego of one man. The only gratification is that he will be remembered in history along side Hitler and Stalin as being one of the most despicable people ever born.

Oh that is a great idea!

I find it so frustrating that the West are not doing more to support Ukraine.

I think the West are doing lots to support Ukraine and that the significance of this conflict is very well understood. There's also a fine tightrope to be walked and other power struggles to be balanced so the situation is a lot more complex than it seems. A lot of the "we must do this now" or "screw their threats" talk on Twitter completely ignores this and its dangerous imo.

Zelenskyy has put this link on his Facebook page, to raise funds for Ukraine.
u24.gov.ua/

Well summarised...

As to the other issue with micro-chips that has been mentioned...

Cutting off the supply of micro-chips etc is certainly going to cause problems for them if they want to carry on producing high end precision guided munitions (PGMs), guided weapons and/or any ancillary equipment needed for the same.

OTOH despite technical advances a lot of the "ammunition" used by armed forces across the world these days is still utterly dumb, so whilst a chip shortage may well be a significant problem for the Russians n some capabilities in the medium to long term I suspect that unfortunately it's not something that's going to quickly cause them major operational issues in the short term in this conflict with the likes of artillery.

When I went to the Ukrainian centre in Manchester, the guy there made a point that they did not allow Russian on any of their forums etc. I suspect that they have had problems.

I was talking with someone who hosting and they said that although the first language of their guest is technically Russian and they had to subsequently learn Ukrainian as a child, they no longer wished to speak Russian. They frequently travelled to Russian speaking areas of Ukraine before February and would happily speak Russian (including to family members), but they now disliked using it. They didn't want to put it on a CV until it was pointed out that saying you could speak multiple languages is actually a good thing to employers here as it says something about your abilities. They also were saying that they thought that people should speak Ukrainian in Ukraine because it was the national language and people who refused to learn werent being oppressed as it was fine to speak at home, but it was about being part of society and refusing to learn was almost opting out of being part of society and the country they lived in. I find it hard to disagree with because I don't think we think differently within the UK really. Indeed those immigrants who don't learn English are at risk and vulnerable because of it and its in their interests to learn English for their own sake rather than be dependent on others and isolated. I don't expect anyone to speak English all the time here (i think its necessary and essential to speak other languages in the home). So i dont think its an alien concept to be saying you should learn Ukrainian in all ukrainian schools for example. Saying that you should be able to only learn Russian in a school in Ukraine is the strange idea. Its about unity and thats precisely the point really especially post 24 Feb. If you only want Russian you are rejecting the statehood of Ukraine - and I can definitely see why thats now a live issue and problem. It isn't about suppressing Russian as such but promoting Ukrainian statehood.

It also has to be pointed out that Zelensky himself is a Russian speaker and he has spoken it publically where appropriate during the war.

I'm also guessing that trolling has been happening online between Ukrainian and Russian speakers so there is a sense of security with the language.

@RedToothBrush that is very interesting. Both of the lead volunteers that I and others support are Russian speaking. They are vehemently against Putin and pro Ukraine but still speak Russian to me (Google translate and Say Hi) and within their volunteer groups (I am part of the group chats). I totally agree that a common language is necessary to form connection and solidarity but it would have been shallow (and somewhat missing the point of genuine connection) to do so at the cost of Russian identity. However, since the invasion, I wonder if anyone who is pro Ukraine and Russian speaking will, in the long term, be faced with having to speak Ukrainian going forward. I imagine there will be many Ukrainians who will be unable to hear the Russian language without being triggered in some way.