Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

there have also been considerable reinforcements from Donbas and Luhansk men, very often at gunpoint. The death rate is extraordinary among them but sheer numbers do count

They simply can't strip all the military away from the other areas though. They really can't send just everything to Ukraine, which is why the idea of mobilization is such a difficult one.

There seem this morning to be quite a few concerns being raised that Russia will seek, by use of military force, to create a land corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad through the Suwalki Gap. Maybe i'm massively misunderstanding but given the difficulties its facing in Ukraine is it really realistic that they would seek to open up a new front within a NATO member state's territory?

Suwali Gap sounds like a choke point and well-known Archilles heel of NATO. Surely it won't be easy for Russia to force their way through since it is presumably already fortified by NATO, I hope, and NATO would see Russian tanks coming from a mile off. I suppose Russian air attacks. It seems difficult even at the best of times but Russia is already weakened by Ukraine and seems crazy for them to risk overextension, as you say, to open a new front within NATO territory.

Any military input?

I don’t think it really has any fortifications at all, it’s just farm land and fields.

Only speculation but I wouldn't be thinking in terms of long term fixed fortifications, Maginot line style.

The only obvious historic parallel I can think of is the Fulda Gap ( Cold War, Germany,) and for that as I understand it was more a case that NATO Forces had surveyed in detail so the location of things good defensive positions were known ahead of time, and that (as elsewhere in Germany) some engineering measures had been put in place to ensure bridges could be dropped quickly.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fulda_Gap

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
⚡️US-made HIMARS arrive in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced on Twitter on June 23 that the HIMARS multiple rocket launcher systems had arrived in Ukraine, without specifying the number.

Phillpis P O'Brian's comment:
This is much more important in the course of the war than, say, Russian forces occupying Zolote.

Russia also seems to be contemplating something or other in Norway's Svalbard (Spitzbergen) archipelago. There are Russians living there, and we know what that means to Russia: Ours! China is also looking covetously in that direction.

@notimagain, Thanks for your input and the references to Fulda Gap and Maginot link. Interesting reading.

Good.

Hopefully they will be (are already) a game changer for Ukraine in the South. Keep them under cover!

The US reportedly promised 4 HIMARS, I believe, but I guess we won't know how many were delivered.

The US reportedly promised 4 HIMARS, I believe, but I guess we won't know how many were delivered.

I think we can safely assume that the four promised units have been delivered. It's been reported that 60 UAF just completed training on their operation.

The next military aid package is expected to include four more and should be announced in the next few days:

New Ukraine aid package with long-range rocket systems expected this week

I think a lot of the hold-up has been getting the logistics in place. Each pod that comes preloaded with six rockets weighs 2.5 tons, so special trucks with cranes have to support each HIMARS and they can fire them off very quickly.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime what sort of something, do you know?

Svalbard is valuable!

The Kyiv Independent, [23/06/2022 17:17]
⚡️General Staff: Belarus could provide Russia with weapons and military equipment.

According to Oleksiy Hromov, deputy chief of operations of the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, equipment of the Belarusian military is currently being serviced and removed from storage, stirring suspicions this equipment could be transferred to Russia and moved to the frontlines.

Meanwhile, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on June 23 that Russia and Belarus would strengthen their military cooperation.

I have to say, Belorus is minute compared to Russia. Are they really trying to take military equipment from such a very small country?

Ijsbear
@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime what sort of something, do you know?
Svalbard is valuable!

I don't know; it just seems to be a general unease among Norwegians, plus a few Americans wondering what they might be up to up there. I can't find anything from any reputable source; just a the same sort of vague general unease, and things saying in effect "Russia has always been awkward about the 1920 treaty, but it seems to be being a bit more awkward than usual at the moment." Not all that helpful.

The thing that really worries me is that the Russians have already deliberately destroyed the National Center for Plant Genetic Resources in Kharkiv, and I wouldn't trust them to look after the Svalbard Global Seed Vault.

That is good news.

It seems like only the US has the sheer fire power to match Russia. Long may their support continue. The sooner Ukraine can pound Russia back the better. I am afraid that the US political will may not last indefinitely. Biden seems to be having a touch time domestically.

I am afraid that the US political will may not last indefinitely. Biden seems to be having a touch time domestically.

As an American with middle of the road political views, I can address this. Biden's approval rating has suffered primarily from economic policies that have made inflation, particularly the cost of petrol, worse. He also ran as a moderate then swung way to the left upon taking office, so many who supported him (including me) feel a bit deceived. Democrats are expected to take huge losses in the midterm elections this fall and lose control of congress.

US policy to support Ukraine has enormous popular and bipartisan political support. Failure to deliver that support would be political suicide for Biden. Given the sheer evilness of the Russians, I don't really see anything materially affecting US public support for Ukraine anytime soon. I think people see it as a moral imperative to help innocent people in danger. The spending on armaments resupply also helps the US economy, which is in pretty good shape these days, all things considered.

I'm happy to explain further if this isn't clear.

@MissConductUS that is reassuring that Ukraine has popular cross party support in the US. I thought that with Ukraine falling off the US headlines (or at least the WSJ headlines, being the only US paper I follow consistently) and with Biden not visiting Kijv during his upcoming trip to Europe for G7 and NATO summits that he/US might have lost interest. I am all for staying the course. I have to say Ukraine needs the US unwavering support more than ever.

Thanks for your perspective.

Thanks @MissConductUS

mobile.twitter.com/air_intel/status/1539706262828490753 Ukraine military have release this video about their relationship with the UK

sentimental and you know, it works. Fucking hell just sometimes the UK really gets it RIGHT

Awww, brings a tear to my eye. Not fashionable to say so but I am proud of the UK on this score.

Rikard Jozwiak
@RikardJozwiak
·
13m
Green light finally!!! EU leaders have just decided to grant #Ukraine & #Moldova EU candidate status.

YAY!

@blueshoes , I subscribe to the WSJ also and would agree that coverage of the war is less prominent now. I think that's because the war has entered a phase where there's simply less news to report. Both political parties are still massively pissed off about Russian interference in the last two presidential elections, so Moscow has no goodwill whatsoever to lean on here. I don't see any serious discussion here on why we should lessen support for Ukraine.

I agree that Ukraine needs US support in the long run. I think one thing that helps is knowing that other first-world democracies are chipping in as well, particularly the UK. Things could change over time, certainly, but I don't see anything on the horizon that threatens it.

@Ijsbear , you're quite welcome.

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
NEW: The U.S. is sending $450 million in additional military aid to Ukraine: Pentagon statement

• 4 HIMARS systems
• 36,000 rounds of 105mm ammo
• 18 tactical vehicles
• 1,200 grenade launchers
• 2,000 machine guns;
• 18 coastal and riverine patrol boats;
• Spare parts
9:41 PM · Jun 23, 2022·Twitter Web App

Short, but informative video I thought. Which Sky News covered today.

YouTube - Sky News

Amazing news!