Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

I watched the video - did not realise what a key event the NATO Summit in Madrid on 28, 29 and 30 June 2022 is, so thanks for the link.

I also wandered around the Sky link watching more Ukraine military commentary.

ISW Key Takeaways

Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border but are unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine due to their low capabilities and the adverse domestic implications of military involvement on behalf of Russia.

Russian forces have likely reached the southern outskirts of Lysychansk and are reinforcing their grouping around Severodonetsk to complete the capture of both Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. These gains remain unlikely to provide Russian forces with a decisive edge in further operations in Ukraine and have further degraded Russian capabilities.

Russian forces are continuing efforts to encircle the Ukrainian grouping in Hirske and Zolote and are likely moving to take control of these settlements.

Russian forces have likely successfully interdicted Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 highway and are using recent gains along the highway to reinforce assaults on Lysychansk.

Russian forces amassed equipment and continued building defensive capabilities along the Southern Axis.

⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Russian offensive operations likely stall in Donbas in the coming weeks.
The U.S. think tank said in its latest assessment on June 23 that Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk area over the last several days and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer high casualties, but Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective in the battle by slowing down and degrading Russian troops.

The experts predict that Russian offensive operations will likely stall in the coming weeks, whether or not Russian forces capture the Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk area, likely granting Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch prudent counteroffensives.

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Kyiv Independent telegram channel

Russian forces capture 2 villages, try to encircle Zolote, Lysychansk (kyivindependent.com/national/russian-forces-capture-2-villages-try-to-encircle-zolote-lysychansk)

⚡️City Council: Russian-occupied Mariupol flooded with mountains of unsorted garbage. [9000 tons claimed to have flooded the streets, mounting risk of disease]

Russian oil refinery formerly owned by Medvedchuk’s wife ablaze in Rostov region (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/russian-oil-refinery-formerly-owned-by-medvedchuks-wife-ablaze-in-rostov-region)

⚡️Russian schools might include war in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea into history curriculum. Russia's RBC news website reported on June 22 that Russia's Ministry of Education has prepared amendments to the general secondary education curriculum. According to it, schoolchildren will learn about Russia's war against Ukraine, while other topics include the (according to Russia) revival of Russia as a world power and its illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula.

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UkraineNOW telegram:

⚡️In case of Russian invasion, Estonia will be "wiped off the map" if the current NATO strategy is in place – Kaja Kallas, Estonian Prime Minister

💪 Germany can sell 10 additional IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine
Andriy Melnyk, Ukraine's Ambassador to Germany, said, "I hope for Berlin's support in purchasing the next 10 stationary IRIS-T air defense systems, which are considered one of the coolest in the world and can provide a safe sky over Ukraine in the coming years."

UK Prime Minister
Boris Johnson has stated that his country is ready to assist in the demining operation on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast to unblock food exports.

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Multiple reports and maybe someone put it upthread (in which case sorry!) but a number of HIMARS systems have arrived in Ukr. Powerful stuff.

Uk int update

Just annoiunced on telegram:

⚡️Governor: Ukrainian military will have to retreat from Sievierodonetsk.
Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai said on June 24 that Ukrainian forces will have to withdraw from destroyed city of Sievierodonetsk. "That is something we've been talking about. Do not spread rumors of betrayal. Nobody abandons our guys, nobody allows the encirclement (of our troops). The situation right now is as such that staying at these destroyed positions just for the sake of being there doesn't make sense," Gaidai said.
At least 90% of the city's infrastructure has been destroyed.

Zelensky said this was a key battle a while ago, and clearly at this point it's been lost. However, it's also been said that the sheer amount of attrition that the Russians as well as the Ukrainians has been huge. They have won, but a late and costly victory. .

⚡️The United States adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism

Arthur Snell's podcast this morning is all about Russia's hybrid warfare and particularly disinformation. Also some interesting stuff about how we should look to replenishing our stocks which are now depleted and increase defence spending to protect against further aggression from Russia and other powers (assuming they mean China though they don't explicitly say)

Also some interesting stuff about how we should look to replenishing our stocks which are now depleted and increase defence spending to protect against further aggression from Russia and other powers

That's going to take some doing in the short term.

Lots of equipment takes days/weeks/months to build and we may not have the capacity to increase production rate - this link previously posted but is of relevance.

www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

Almost everybody in Eastern Europe calling for F-16s by the dozen but the production line is already pretty maxed out with long standing orders.

www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/f-16/lockheed-martin-celebrates-new-f-16-production-line-in-south-car.html

and directly or indirectly it will be expensive...problem is the tax payers have not been told yet..

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/21/britain-real-cost-war-ukraine-johnson

Russian military cargo plane crashes west of Moscow.

Independent News article

Further ISW assessment of the loss of Severodonetsk

(The ISW has a tendency to favouring Ukraine in its assessments but not at the expense of a rational overview imo. Also when they say 'likely' they rather mean 'Pretty sure' to 'pretty damn sure').

Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area over the last several days and Ukrainian troops continue to suffer high casualties, but Ukrainian forces have fundamentally accomplished their objective in the battle by slowing down and degrading Russian forces. Head of the Luhansk Oblast Administration Serhiy Haidai stated on June 23 that Ukrainian troops may have to retreat to avoid encirclement in Lysychansk, which indicates that Ukrainian authorities are setting conditions to prepare for the ultimate loss of both Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.[6] As ISW has previously assessed, however, the loss of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will not represent a major turning point in the war.[7] Ukrainian troops have succeeded for weeks in drawing substantial quantities of Russian personnel, weapons, and equipment into the area and have likely degraded Russian forces' overall capabilities while preventing Russian forces from focusing on more advantageous axes of advance. Russian offensive operations will likely stall in the coming weeks, whether or not Russian forces capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, likely granting Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch prudent counteroffensives. The Kremlin’s ideological fixation on the capture of Severodonetsk, much like the earlier siege of Azovstal, will likely be to the ultimate detriment of Russian capabilities in future advances in Ukraine. The loss of Severodonetsk is a loss for Ukraine in the sense that any terrain captured by Russian forces is a loss—but the battle of Severodonetsk will not be a decisive Russian victory.

@notimagain great guardian article

Russia with them new boomerang missiles

Return to sender

That's the sort of thing the manufacturers and some of the guided weapons acolytes tweeters aren't keen on publishing ....no missile has 100% reliability.

I've seen some fairly hairy footage of western missiles (including air to air ones) doing some fairly spectacular manoeuvres post launch when for some reason they haven't guided.

This is not the first plane to fall, there were a couple smaller commercial planes that went "missing" in Yakutia a couple days ago. Both within 24 hours, one of them was found, no casualties, not sure what happened to the other one. Apparently the "fit to fly" license for one of them has expired in 2020...

Dmitry Peskov

🎪 The Kremlin said that the issue of granting EU candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova is an internal European matter, "the main thing is that these processes do not lead to major problems in the relations between these countries and Russia

.... he hasn't noticed that invading fucking Ukraine has led to major problems between these countries and Russia?

Quick interruption with new thread: Ukraine Invasion: Part 28 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4575690-ukraine-invasion-part-28