Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

oops sorry herecomesthsun said it first!

⚡️Russia is trying to break through to Kharkіv and make it a front-line city, said Vadym Denysenko, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

In #Kherson city, someone blew up the car with the chief of the local prison, a police Major Yevhen Sobolev who switched sides and collaborates with the Russian occupiers. He's alive but wounded. The occupiers complain that this is an act by Ukrainian partisans. Info is verified.

It is the Express, so I imagine prone to embellishment. But it is a good development nonetheless which hopefully will pick up momentum.

This is good on MS. Every bit counts.

I wonder what impact this will have on Russian users - presumably Russia has older versions of windows . Can they illegally copy the software or use VPN? I am no techie but I suspect this might not be too difficult to get round.

my companion's comment:

Windows 10 needs an activation over the internet. Having the software doesn't help you much. You need a connection to the activation servers. Otherwise your windows will shut down within 30 days

if MS cut off those servers you cannot activate it. Yes, you could do that with a VPN, possibly..but that is a hurdle most non-tech-affine users won't take

⚡️The President of Kazakhstan refused the Russian Order of Alexander Nevsky
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is not going to accept either domestic or foreign awards while he is president, political analyst Yerbol Yedilov said. [brave, brave man]

He's done more than this. He refused to acknowledge* *LNR and DNR as independent states. Putin swallowed the insult. Russia needs Kazakhstan more than Kazakhstan needs Russia. The numbers of Putin's allies are shrinking.

As for Belarus invading Ukraine, I think it's total BS. Lukashenko is not that stupid. And Putin can't make him. Belarus does depend on Russia somewhat, but Lukashenko is so used to stringing them along, that I'm sure he can do this for foreseeable future. He's not going to think twice to betray Putin once the moment is right.

I get the impression that Lukashenko is not going to risk losing his dictatorship control over his own country to prop up Putin's vanity project. That's the real reason he is so reluctant to get involved.

The Kremlin’s next step is going to be the air blockade of Lithuania.
This was said by Mikhail Khodorkovsky in the article within this tweet:
mobile.twitter.com/home

Sorry, re M Khodorkovsky this is the link.

twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1538431648785739776?s=20&t=LKiKVK0_2mOqREydvaj1pA

Tokayev is shaping up to be a hero of his own isn't he? Tweaking Russia's nose is a dangerous business.

Belorus seems unwilling to actually take arms, Khazakstan is distancing itself. Russia has China as an ally but no one is willing to take up arms for their invasion.

In other news:

⚡️Yesterday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the command and reconnaissance center of the 20th Army of the Russian Federation in the Kharkiv region, – Adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Viktor Andrusiv says in Telegram.

1/2⚡️The Russians have seized the Zaporizhzhia iron ore plant, – the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Starukh, says on the air of the telethon.

Excuse me for being sceptical.....

The Kremlin can do what they want with the airspace over the Kaliningrad enclave and the border of that sovereign airspace and the sovereign airspace of Lithuania...I don't think too many people would lose sleep over that boundary being closed.

OTOH if the dream is to blockade Lithuania completely the author / the Kremlin had better have a look at a aeronautical chart, or even school map will do, and think about how the airspace works in that part of the world, particularly to the north and west of Lithuania...

@notimagain · Today 16:38
Re: possible future Kremlin air blockade of Lithuania, I am glad you can make more sense of what it might or might not mean notimagain.

For anyone reading notimagain’s post, who wants to look at the article being discussed, that link I had put there won’t work.

This should work:

twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1538431648785739776?s=20&t=LKiKVK0_2mOqREydvaj1pA

Sorry I didn't provide enough context re Tokayev refusing to acknowledge LDNR. He said that to Putin's face, on the economic Forum, in front of huge audience of top Russian officials and oligarchs. And Putin had nothing to say. Because he's not a politician, he's just a bully. And the only way to stand up to a bully is to show that you're not afraid of them. Which Tokayev did. Obviously he said it very politely and diplomatically, but that's the main event everyone is discussing about the forum, and not Putin's mediocre speech.

Everyone saw that the king is well and truly naked.

I can't find the video with English subtitles unfortunately, hopefully someone will put them up in a few days.

@OwlsDance is it the economic forum in St Petersburg, i.e. the "Russian Davos". Apart from Russian bigwigs, it is also attended by representatives of China, India and Middle East, notwithstanding it being shunned by Western elites this year.

This is Russia's glittering event. It would be incredible if Tokayev said it in front of that entire audience. This is a public repudiation of Putin himself. It is ritual humiliation.

Truly brave man. I don't know what Putin intends to do with him now.

@blueshoes yes, that's the one.

China wasn't there despite them claiming it would be. They said over 100 countries will be represented, but the only ones that were there were Taliban, LDNR and Kazakhstan. Tokayev was the guest of honour.

He also announced a day or so before this that Kazakhstan will be respecting sanctions.

Not strictly true, Xi spoke directly at the plenary session.

Yes, sorry, he did speak remotely. There were other countries there too, Egypt was a guest country and Afghanistan was there too. Some others joined in remotely.

But Tokayev's announcement was the highlight.

so ... you're talking 6 countries in all?

Russia, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Afghanistan, the so-called LDNR and remotely China?

@OwlsDance · Today 17:29

Sorry I didn't provide enough context re Tokayev refusing to acknowledge LDNR. He said that to Putin's face, on the economic Forum, in front of huge audience of top Russian officials and oligarchs. And Putin had nothing to say. Because he's not a politician, he's just a bully. And the only way to stand up to a bully is to show that you're not afraid of them. Which Tokayev did. Obviously he said it very politely and diplomatically, but that's the main event everyone is discussing about the forum, and not Putin's mediocre speech.

Everyone saw that the king is well and truly naked.

I can't find the video with English subtitles unfortunately, hopefully someone will put them up in a few days.

Do you have access to The Telegraph?
They said Putin made veiled threats to Tokayev in response along the lines of watch out or it will be it will be you next.

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/06/18/vladimir-putins-veiled-threat-ex-soviet-states-part-historic/

Nikolas Yagami🇪🇪🇺🇦

Ukrainian General Staff, Oleksiy Gromov, stated that Russian forces had grouped 150,000 military personnel into battalion tactical groups and other formations and engaged an additional 70,000 troops of air and sea elements, with personnel remaining in non-combat support units.

Argh, isn't 150,000 Russian troops equivalent to the number at the start of the Russian invasion? How does Russia find so many new bodies to throw at the war?

There were probably more, but definitely not 140+ they were claiming. Or whatever the number was

Yeah he did. I'll see if I can post on here what was said exactly but that will be tomorrow. Can't ignore DH on father's day 🙈

It’s a lot of folk but 150,000 random people/reservists are very different to 150,000 trained soldiers.