Sorry if this is old news but I've not been able to find a numbers based assessment of the vulnerability claims which would inform a Changing Room risk assessment. And without numbers it's just a finger in the air isn't it?
Here is my attempt - please check my logic...
The english figures aren't much use, so using the Scottish Census data from 2022 I can get total population and trans ID population figures sliced by age band. So I can calculate % trans ID for different age bands (over 16's only / much higher rates of gender fluidity in the 16-30 range). Then if I wildly assume these % translate to the rest of the UK, I can then use the % trans by age on UK wide figures to estimate the total "trans" population of the UK of 77,500. Omitting the non-binary folks whose needs are less clear regarding changing rooms etc, my rough ready reckoning comes to an estimate of about 18.5k trans women and 18.5k trans men.
For changing rooms it's actually quite difficult to know what offences might be relevant and the hate crime stats aren't much help. There were 4780 incidents of transgender related hate crime in 2023-24 but this includes physical assault, stalking, criminal damage, arson etc which aren't really relevant to changing rooms. However on the CPS website I found a note saying that a 2013 survey indicated that 1 in 8 victims (of trans and homophobic crime) had experienced unwanted sexual contact. So if we take that rate, a very very rough estimate might be that there are around 600 sexually motivated offences/hate incidents in the UK each year - which equates to about 1 in 60 trans people (or 1 in 120 if combined with non binary people).
Hate incident figures are not gathered for crimes against women and girls. But the ONS reports on sexual assaults. The Crime Survey for England and Wales estimated that 2.3% of adults (3.3% women and 1.2% men) aged 16 years and over were victims of sexual assault (including attempts) in the year ending March 2022. This equates to an estimated 798,000 are women who are raped or sexually assaulted every year - that's 2186 per day. And for a total population of 24.5 million women over 16 in the UK, that's a rate of about 1 in 30 women.
I'm a bit surprised how clear those numbers come out - it seems that women are 2 to 4 times more likely to be victims of sexual violence than trans and non binary people.
Who is the vulnerable group here exactly?