Christmas weather forecast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Starts tomorrow will be wildly inaccurate this far out of course, but tomorrow Christmas eve comes into gfs range. Hoorah!

exactly magpie, I went shopping this morning in a lightweight hoodie. People must think I only own two coats - a rain coat and a hoodie!

I'm liking 'Tis the season to be muddy'

I fear that if I hear 'Sleigh Ride' once more on ClassicFM, I may feel the need to stomp on the radio ~ fat chance of anything of a cold/snowy nature around our way at Christmas and it just sounds all wrong when the temp is 15C outside.

All forecasts taken just from the GFS model, unless specified. Got up too mate today. oops!

23rd slightly 'uh oh'. GFS shows a rapidly developing little low pressure which would, if it came off create some nasty winds around it on the night of the 23rd/24th. ECMWF also develops this. Suspect it may become a 'named' storm. A lot of wet associated with this. Main area to be affected at the moment looks to be Scotland.

Christmas Eve Mild and wet, perhaps snow over Scottish hills and mountains.

Christmas Day Cooler than of late. Looks to be a relatively benign day.

Boxing Day Mild in the south, colder from the Midlands up. Cold in Scotland.

heads up that there could be some nasty storms between Christmas and NY. If it persists in the models then I will start flagging up specifics.

new Years Eve lots of rain, snow over high ground in northern England and Scotland.

NYD nasty wind and rain storm showing.

I suggest that if you need weatherproofing doing, then this week would be a good week to sort it out. From experience, between Christmas and NY is a bugger to get people to come out.

just a heads up that Im off work this coming week and hence forecasts will be delayed until I've hauled my lazy self out of bed

23rd still the potential for quite a nasty storm on the 23rd/24th. Looks most likely to affect northern Scotland. no heads up from the met office yet though.

Christmas Eve cooler with rain, perhaps snow over Scottish hills and mountains.

Christmas Day Cooler, rain for most, again over high ground perhaps a little snow in scotland.

Boxing Day similar to prior two days.

still some potential for nasty weather in between.

new Years Eve cool.

NYD still showing a storm hitting either NYE or NYD with lots of rain. Some time to go before then.

Feeling despondent at lack of white stuff on the horizon. Love it for the children in the school hols.

Today my facebook did one of those old post things. It popped up pics from 6 years ago when the snow came. IIRC I only knew it was serious and to move my backside home early was because of the mn weather threads.

those were the days meglet! nowadays im reduced to tie down your trampolines and man the lifeboats!

slight hiccup in todays forecast sorry! hopefuly normal service will resume in the morning.

sOme lovely looking fantasy charts at the end of the model run though :)

They keep going on about a change to something much colder in early January, on the netweather forum. They get quite excited about any signs of cold!

I think part of that is driven by the met office forecast of a winter of two halves. Funny how instinctive it is for the brain to decide the dividing line will be at the end of Dec!
forecast when I am out of bed!

Looks like you were right OYBBK. Another named storm on the way.

yeah. pity that. Would have been good to get that one wrong.

Today Fortunately this mostly grazes us, but for northern Scotland it could be fairly wild. warnings
The low is almost double centred, prolonging the length of time of unsettled weather - so around midnight on the western side but not clearing out from the eastern side til tomorrow afternoon, early evening. A lot of wet associated with this storm.

Christmas Eve - thats tomorrow right? see above for northern Scotland. For the rest of us a cold front sweeps through, bringing rain but a slight drop in temps. By the evening the main band of rain should be through, leaving one or two showers and perhaps some sleet/snow over higher ground in Scotland.

Christmas Day a warm front brings rain for all in England and eventually Scotland moving from the south northwards, giving a mild end to the day.

Boxing Day mild everywhere, but a bit of a heads up for those in the nW for perhaps some more rain. I'm so sorry.

29th I've added this in as there is some model consistency now for a few days showing a deep low pressure to our west. Models show it running up off the western coast, but I'm just a little angsty about this one. May be one that affects Northern Ireland and Ireland mostly, but today the latest run has it affecting more of the uk too. Will keep watching.

NYE Temps have dropped a little again, quite cool in Scotland, where higher ground may see some snow - looks to be relatively benign weather though.

NYD gentle weather - neither here nor there at present!

The early January cool down is still there this morning.

Happy CHristmas, Kitten & many thanks for all your forecasts - the best ones in the world!

- & ake that a pint of beer for yourself!

You are very welcome Happy Christmas and cheers! (oh we so need a pint of beer emoticon)

Mostly blue sky and sunny near Lancaster at the moment.

Sounds like I am heading into the path of the storm. Is Glasgow likely to be wet and windy tonight?

Unseasonal greetings weather folk
11C in Edinburgh and a bit windy. Was listening to the World Service tonight and they were saying that New York is on for the warmest Xmas eve on record....
Apart from the couple of bonkers winters a few years ago, I don't really expect snow till after Christmas. Always expect wind.

sorry nannynick! was it?

amber warning for nw sorry guys.

general forecast in a little bit. Drinking tea in bed!

Yes rather wet and windy. Just checking travelnews and there is some flooding on roads, though not major floods like Cumbria had recently.

suppose I ought to get out of bed and produce a forecast

Christmas Day Heavy rain moving up from the south to affect all eventually. Winds strengthening behind this warm front to leave a very windy night.

Boxing day North Wales and the NW will see a period of heavy, prolonged rain. Around manchester it seems particularly persistent.

Then looking ahead.

30th that monster low is still showing. It is an absolute beast. I'm keeping a close eye on the path of it. It is really bad, it needs to stay to the west of us, or even better not develop at all. Sorry if that sounds melodramatic!

NYE make the most of the calm.

NYD another area of deep low pressure looks set to affect Scotland primarily, but again its one to keep an eye on.

A cool down is still shown early Jan, but gets pushed back a bit.

I'd like to take an opportunity to wish all of the mn weather watchers a very Happy Christmas and a Happy New Year

Thanks Kitten Merry Christmas to you too, and heres to a snowy Jan '16