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Original poster

Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

403 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 03/12/2014 12:48

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes Xmas Grin but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

OP posts:
hoochymama1 · 14/12/2014 13:18

Thanks Kitten Brew andBiscuit to sustain you Grin
I like the idea of proper coldWink

Namechangeyetagaintohide · 14/12/2014 16:02

Shall await news in potential cold spell then.

meglet · 14/12/2014 16:09

I need to catch up with the thread, but I'm sticking with it feels colder than last year therefore we'll probably get some white stuff eventually (hampshire).

catslave · 14/12/2014 21:17

Agreed meglet, I am sure it was about 13-14 degrees on Christmas Day last year (bleurgh).

stubbornstains I will put you out of your misery with an easy clue: midway between a cycle cafe and a station!

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2014 21:25

Tonight's GFS looks rather exciting for the 30th for the Lake District up. Giant amounts of snow! Be interesting to see if it is there tomorrow.

OP posts:
Namechangeyetagaintohide · 14/12/2014 21:36

Don't tell me the daily mail was right for once

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 14/12/2014 22:02

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day Grin

We shall see what the next few days of models say.....

OP posts:
stubbornstains · 14/12/2014 22:13

Ah, somewhere between the B place and the P place then catslave?! I shall wave in your general direction next time I'm whizzing up the main road to Truro Smile

Meet here for squealing and overexcitement in the event of Cornish snowfall?

Namechangeyetagaintohide · 14/12/2014 22:14

Oh I so want it to happen !! Crossing everything I have.

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/12/2014 08:13

morning all. Bit behind today, so it will be a bit of a rush job i'm afraid.

Friday 19th (GFS) Cold in Scotland, milder elsewhere. Rain first thing in the south. (UKMO) Cool, some rain around. Rather windy, especially the further north you go.

Saturday 20th (GFS ) Quite cold in northern and central scotland. Milder elsewhere but dry. (UKMO)Winds slow to ease. Dry, uninteresting.

Sunday 21st (GFS) Very Mild, some rain about

Monday 22nd (GFS) Very Mild. Wet in scotland (snow on higher ground)

Tuesday 23rd (GFS)Wet and mild (colder northern Scotland so snow up there) .

Christmas Eve (GFS) Mild in the south. Big plunge of cold air in Scotland and Northern England. Dry

Christmas day (GFS) mild and wet

Boxing Day (GFS) Mild and wet.

30th not nearly so exciting this model run.

OP posts:
Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/12/2014 08:14

morning all. Bit behind today, so it will be a bit of a rush job i'm afraid.

Friday 19th (GFS) Cold in Scotland, milder elsewhere. Rain first thing in the south. (UKMO) Cool, some rain around. Rather windy, especially the further north you go.

Saturday 20th (GFS ) Quite cold in northern and central scotland. Milder elsewhere but dry. (UKMO)Winds slow to ease. Dry, uninteresting.

Sunday 21st (GFS) Very Mild, some rain about

Monday 22nd (GFS) Very Mild. Wet in scotland (snow on higher ground)

Tuesday 23rd (GFS)Wet and mild (colder northern Scotland so snow up there) .

Christmas Eve (GFS) Mild in the south. Big plunge of cold air in Scotland and Northern England. Dry

Christmas day (GFS) mild and wet

Boxing Day (GFS) Mild and wet.

30th not nearly so exciting this model run.

OP posts:
PestoStormissimos · 15/12/2014 08:24

Thank you Kitten ??

dodo3 · 15/12/2014 09:45

Its the same every year. Mild and wet in the south. Cold and snow on high ground in the north.

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/12/2014 15:03

That would save me a lot of typing Dodo Grin!

But we musnt steal hope from people. A few years ago it all got very exciting in the south - I remember snow meant that I got stranded in London after Olympia. That was challenging....

OP posts:
dodo3 · 15/12/2014 16:03

Oh dear, I didnt mean your reports are wrong. Im hoping for snow so I look forward to reading what you write.

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 15/12/2014 16:17

no offence taken at all :) You actually summarised it rather well!

OP posts:
nannynick · 15/12/2014 19:09

It's why I head north for Xmas these days. More chance of snow in Aberdeenshire than in Surrey.

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall · 15/12/2014 19:51

It's why I head north for Xmas these days

It's why I always consider moving to Brighton at this time of year Grin

nannynick · 15/12/2014 19:54

Expect I will feel the same Biscuits if/when I live in Scotland Smile

Haggismcbaggis · 15/12/2014 20:55

I'm especially concerned about wind levels on 19th as I sail from Fishguard to Rosslare on my own with 4 kids. Hoping to avoid the sickbags...

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2014 08:26

Friday 19th Rather windy from North Wales upwards (poor you haggis!) with gusts to around 50 perhaps 60mph. Rain clearing south through the day but showers will follow in places, perhaps wintry in places.

Saturday 20th Winds very slow to die down. A few scattered showers, generally mild.

Sunday 21st (GFS) Cold in central northern Scotland, mild elsewhere. Some scattered showers, still pretty windy.

Monday 22nd (GFS) Very Mild. Rain at times, particularly further north. Wind still a feature.

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) More rain I'm afraid, but further north this may fall as snow showers as it looks to be cooler the further north you go.

Christmas Eve (GFS) A mix of heavy rain and snow over Scottish mountains for 'up north' Colder air moving further south. (ECMWF) is much keener to bring in cold further south.

Christmas day (GFS) Cold air looks to push further south with snow over higher ground in Northern England and Scotland, rain at times elsewhere. (ECMWF) brings cold right across us.

Boxing day (GFS) Colder!!! Snow for northern Scotland, dry elsewhere. (ECMWF) supporting colder weather.

Run up to the New Year brings a real battle ground between cold and warm. Watch this space, it looks potentially rather interesting!

OP posts:
GloriaSmud · 16/12/2014 09:23

I've been looking at next week (especially the end of next week) with interest for a few days. If I've been reading them right, the Ensembles have been forecasting the temperature dropping for a few days.

Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2014 09:43

They certainly have :)

OP posts:
Original poster
OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2014 11:41

btw, I made the Christmas namechange short list here!

Vote MEEEEE!!!!! Xmas Grin

OP posts:
GlOricella · 16/12/2014 14:06

Link to vote for LittleMitten