Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

Mild and wet. The worst possible Xmas scenario.

Even frosty would feel more festive.

We had some snow for around 20 minutes this morning. It started coming down fast and settling then suddenly stopped! Now it's gloriously sunny. I am on the Yorkshire moors near Bradford.

I've decided its not time to stamp on our Christmas baubles yet. Tomorrow is a new day and perhaps the models will have changed their minds!

We had a pitiful attempt at snow here about 40 minutes ago lasted 5 minutes then turned to rain and now its sunny!

We had a mixture of sleety / snowy / hail at about noon too. Needless to say, I wasn't a huge fan as it chucked it down at the exact time I was walking back from the shops. Blue skies now!

Mild and wet is the worse Christmas weather scenario. Gah!

Apologies if this has already been covered but are we going by the definition for a white Christmas which simply requires a snowflake to fall somewhere in the UK?

I'm not far from you Atticus! Same side of the city, just not so far up the A60! Funny how a few miles can make such a difference!

I don't think most mners would find that very satisfactory Mamushka

-0.6 atm and not light enough to see if there is a frost or not.
Sky has varying shades of grey so should be milder?

-2.3C here (Leicester) Brrrr!

Morning all, a very worn out Badkitten here!

Friday 19th (GFS) mild in the south. Cooler further north with perhaps snow showers in Scotland (ooo some model consistency from yesterday!). (ECMWF) rather windy, cooler in the north. (UKMO) cold in the north with snow showers. Windy.

Saturday 20th (GFS ) High pressure sits over us giving a broadly dry, cool and perhaps grey day -same as yesterday too! (ECMWF) cool and unsettled

Sunday 21st (GFS) Cool in the east milder wet weather moving in from the west (ECMWF) Clinging on to the cold weather in the east, but mild weather moving in from the west.

Monday 22nd (GFS) Mild and wet (ECMWF) mild and unsettled

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) Mild in the south and midlands. Perhaps some snow over scottish hills. (ECMWF)

Christmas Eve (GFS) Mild in the SW. Dry and cool elsewhere (ECMWF mild and damp)

Christmas day (GFS) mild in the west with rain moving in, cooler elsewhere

Boxing Day (GFS) Mild and damp

All of northern Europe still looking ridiculously warm for this time of year.

I'm not to bothered about it snowing at christmas tbh, so long as it snows, period!

I don't really mind what it does, I just love reading your reports

It would be handy if the snow and ice could wait until well into the New Year though as I haven't had my winter tyres put on yet and I don't have any time to do it now!!

Unexpected sledging this morning - not a thick layer, but enough to woosh down the fields for a bit Alls still looking white and pretty.

Some expert in the daily fail is predicting a cold new year with several feet of snow

I have also just been told about the daily fail report & have come here to get kittens expert advice. I need to fly from the IOM to MCR on the 30th Dec & back on the 2nd Jan. Does snow look likely or should I just ignore the rubbish they spout! :)

I actually do think we may be in for a pattern change early in January. I don't know about several feet of snow, but I do think it could trend to colder.

Crossing everything for some more cold! Having said that, I think even the SW is a bit colder than normal this year. We have already had three mornings of ice on the car this winter, which is quite unusual. Currently it's around -1 (this is just outside Truro) but I think it will cloud over later and warm up a bit.

Ha, catslave, the difference a few miles makes! I'm about 15 miles W of Truro, and we've had one icy morning (graven on my memory, because my discombobulation at windscreen frost removal caused me to clip my neighbour's car ). And I don't think we're close to freezing yet, as the roof slates start making funny noises.....

The checkout woman in the Helston Lidl the other day was announcing, in tones normally reserved for impending apocalypse, that there was snow "over Truro" - was there any truth in this? .

Absolutely none, as news of my excited screeching would probably have made the West Briton

We did have a bit of hail - maybe that confused her ?? We're in between Truro and Falmouth (and Redruth, if you're being picky), but in a valley so it does get a bit colder here. After 3 years without snow I think we must be due some this year?!?

She had a bit of a shifty look to her, mind.....I'll be checking my till receipt next time I do my weekly shop .

(DP and I are now playing "Name catslave's village..)

Hey Kitten, can we keep the 'mild and dry' for South West please? Only I have to drive about twelve million elderly relatives around over Christmas and they all keep talking at me while I'm trying to drive into shallow winter sunlight ...
'Great Aunt Mildred surely you remember her, you know, she had the strange KNEES and oooh look over there that man looks just like your Uncle Herbert and anyway he never did pay up in the end.... Oooo just over there That's where your cousin Alfred's mother in law used to live, before her dad took peculiar.'

Morning! Why oh why did I go to bed so late?

Friday 19th (GFS) mild in the south and wet. Cooler further north, cold in central and northern Scotland (ECMWF) quite windy and cold, milder in the south (UKMO) cold in the north with snow showers. Windy.

Saturday 20th (GFS ) Proper cold in northern and central scotland. Milder elsewhere but dry. (ECMWF) cool and unsettled, maybe some snow showers down the east coast (UKMO)Cold becoming more confined to the Eastern side.

Sunday 21st (GFS) Cool in the east milder in the south and west. wet or snow up in Scotland (ECMWF) still quite cold and fairly unsettled.

Monday 22nd (GFS) Very Mild and wet, parts of Scotland clinging on to the cold (ECMWF) mild and wet

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) Mild in the south and midlands and very wet. Northern Scotland colder and therefore potentially snowy. (ECMWF) Mild and wet. The very tippy top of Scotland less mild.

Christmas Eve (GFS) A little less Mild. Dry but rain moving in overnight, snow over some northern hills, perhaps lots of snow over the Scottish mountains (ECMWF) unsettled and mild

Christmas day (GFS) mild and wet (ecmwf) cold and wet

Boxing Day (GFS) Mild and wet.

A little hope for the end of the month - hints of a blocking high setting up in the west of the atlantic which would allow colder air to come south.

Looks uninspiring for my area. I need frosty mornings before Christmas to get me in the festive mood. Mild and wet is useless.