BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

half updated warnings with just yellows for scotland and no wind yet for the south. That will change!! I expect some of the scottish yellows will turn to amber tomorrow and there is no way on earth that tomorrows weather doesnt warrant warnings in the south.

I'm off out now, so someone else will need to update when the warnings are fully updated. I can check in on my phone.

Blazing sunshine forecast for Edinburgh for Christmas....just a wee bit more wind and rain first

White Christmas in Scotland perhaps. Coming through perthshire could see snowcapped mountain tops. Sunny right now in Aberdeen but there are a few days yet for snow to come.

definitely orange in the south now for rain

south and south wales

Thanks Badkitten!

Ok so to round up we have

tomorrow:
Severe gales along the south coast, with the Sw being affected by late morning and the EA coast and SE early afternoon through the night.
Gales through southern counties. Flooding likely with very heavy rain.
Snow in the NW and central areas of scotland.
Very windy everywhere.

Tuesday:
Severe gales in central and NW Scotland.
Blizzards in central and NW Scotland.
Heavy rain continues in the south for a while.
Windy everywhere.

Some useful links:
met office warnings

evironment agency - for flooding

national rail disruptions

highways agency

If I'm travelling east along the M4 from Cardiff to London tomorrow and leave at 6am, will I miss the worst of it? I'm going to have a carful of kids and presents and getting a bit worried.

Spotty
We did have a sunny day from 9am until dark. A while ago I heard it pelting down, but quiet again now.

You will, that would be a good plan noble.

looks like some snow for the pennines tomorrow too I think.

Thanks Kitten!

We are on red alert now for the Channel Islands tomorrow :/ the bad weather coming in two bands apparently.

Sounds scary!

Idobeliveinfairies wow, have you battened down the hatches?

We're on amber rain and yellow wind in Hampshire. I'm still worrying about my fence.

I'd much prefer a decent dumping of snow, at least the kids can play out if it snows, they're stuck inside when it's rainy.

I'll post an update when the next GFS comes out at about 10:30 (hopefully I will still be awake!)

It's looking pretty school Beaufort 12 according to some forecasts!

Would much rather snow too!!

:)

We love you kitten I usually love a good bit of weather but the timing of this one is wrong wrong wrong.

Hmmm travelling from west mids to south east tomorrow. Wondering whether to leave it til Tuesday, but will it be just as bad then?

It would be better weather wise on Tuesday. Evein if you get through the high winds its going to be very very wet indeed.

D&p the timing is so rubbish and that's what has made me concerned with people travelling a long way and a storm that begins in the day.

18z GFS is in. Looks very similar to the 06z, no weird double centre to it, tight pressure gradient in the south tomorrow, even tighter pressure gradient NW Scotland Tuesday. Some very heavy and prolonged rain in the south and snow in Scotland and perhaps over the Pennines. No changes from my previous forecast.

Hyde park winter wonderland is closed tomorrow due to the weather.

Kitten I may be a bit confused but did you say up there ^^ that the 27/28 th dont look good?
I'm driving from south Cheshire to Cumbria. I need to be in Cumbria for 3pm. Its about a 2.5 hour drive usually.

It looks really pretty awful. I'll update tomorrow about the next storm when we start to know how this one is panning out.

In saying that Herdy, at the moment I'd be aiming to leave on Friday morning. At present it actually looks to have wider and more prolonged impact than tomorrow's storm.

Thanks so much kitten. I can leave any time after 7am and no later than 12 noon. Will look out for your updates.