BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

Just had a huge flash of lightening and thunder!!! And now throwing it down in nth Manchester

S.Herts.
All quiet here - hope it's not the lull before the storm. It can wait until I've been out with the dog.

Ooh. The sky is breaking up into blue bits to the south, but seems to be struggling

At the moment the low hasn't even become a closed off low pressure, but if you follow it through GFS it just 'bombs' going from 985hPa to 935hPa in 24 hours and then deepening to 930hPa.

My advice, which you should take very guardedly and checking with the met office site, remembering that overrules anything I say, and also remembering that things can change rapidly and unexpectedly in weather, so use your own common sense is (sorry about the really poor grammar!):

If you have to travel in the south then do so early tomorrow, the earlier the better or leave it if you can until later on Tuesday. If you are in the north, especially the NW and Scotland then it would be better to travel tomorrow weather wise. What happens on the roads and rail though I cannot forecast, weather is my thing!

Will catch up with the forecast in more detail a bit later, am on my ipad in bed and my ipad isn't fab for this.

Digerd it's still raining in my part of Sussex cloud seems to be thinning though.

Oybbk I have a twenty minute journey to work tomorrow lunch time and finish at 6:30 it's going to be a crappy drive isn't it?!

With regards to the 27th/28th all 3 main models are back to modelling it. It seems a little further north to me, taking the worst of the winds through the midlands. It's not good news, GFS has it as a 940hPa low and again rapidly deepening as it approaches. ECMWF isn't quite as developmental. So at the moment, it does look like there will be storm but its severity and position are yet to be pinned down.

I'm reading some very worried posts about both storms from people who are normally pretty restrained forecasters.

One thing I've neglected to highlight is the very high rainfall totals for some, with a couple of inches over the two days possible in some areas. Surface flooding could start to become a real issue.

Apologies for repeating my posts in this and the Weather warning thread, I seem to have different people following in each one and my thoughts apply equally to both threads.

estofex are forecasting more lightning for today.

Tuning in..... Any major concerns for Cornwall please oybbk?

Hmm it's already pretty flooded round here

Oad, very much so for tomorrow, especially for the morning into the early afternoon. I think pretty widespread gusts of 70mph are possible, perhaps higher along the coast. High mean wind speed too.

Situation is pretty complex really!!

Which means I guess that in the SW take great care about travelling in the morning too. Oh dear!

We have to drive from J5 on the N4 to Cardiff on Tuesday. It's not looking good

Doctrine, try and leave it later in the day if you can, certainly don't go first thing!

Oh no snuggles with friends newborn planned. Will assess in morning. Thank you.

Am supposed to be driving from NE England to Reading area tomorrow... Will it be hours of fun?!

I am working in and around salisbury on Christmas night, Boxing Day and Boxing Day night.

I am praying the weather isn't too fierce as I have to get to my calls!

I think it's going to settle Christmas Day?

Geckos, it looks much calmer over Christmas day and Boxing day. something to be thankful for!

myrtle. That isnt ideal. Hopefully central England wont be too bad but it still will be very windy indeed. Keep an eye on the highways agency and do take risks if it starts to look dangerous. If the police say stay off the roads they mean it!

In fact the highways agency have issued a severe weather alert.

Yes I've just read on the other thread, I feel sorry for my work colleagues out in the terrible weather but very very glad I will be missing it!

Thanks Kitten

Are we just looking at wind and rain then or is there still chance of snow?

Im driving down the A1 in North Yorkshire on Christmas day and up to Newcastle 27th. Will be keeping an eye on the second storm that has been mentioned for the 27th

Hope people get to their destinations safely over the next week or so.

Some snow may come in off the west coasts on saturday, esp 'up north' sorry, theres so much to look at that snow has fallen off my radar. It seems rather likely to me that northern scotland could well be seeing blizzards on Christmas eve, esp over high ground.

06Z GFS is out and I'm afraid it isnt any better :( Rare to not have a bit of downgrading by now. Storm on the 27th/28th is still also very much an 'oh shit' storm.

yellow warnings for snow in Scotland are up now. The wind warnings are still missing.