BadKitten's Christmas forecast thread.

[OhYouMerryLittleKitten]

A just for fun thread! Remember I’m not a professional and it’s important not to base decisions on what I say in forecasting threads as I may very well get it wrong. At this point in time I am looking at GFS, as other charts come into range I will start discussing those too. I’m also looking at the GFS ensembles (which at present as you would expect have a wide range of solutions, most of which are mild). The forecast will change as we go along considering how far out we are at present.

In general over the next couple of weeks we seem to be kept in mild southerlies or south-westerly’s, with more potential for storms and there isn’t much promise of a cold Christmas. The 24th December has finally made into the range of the GFS. What a chart!! It shows a deep low which would bring severe gales and a mix of heavy snow (for some) and heavy rain (for most) across the UK with the snow risk being greater the further north you are.

It’s a stonker of a chart, but probably not a welcome one!

Kitten, just to let you know I just did my Big Christmas Shop because I fear the weather is going to be truly awful here in Scotland tomorrow - alerted by your thread, so thanks. It's done.
And even if the weather is not as bad as I fear tomorrow, it's still done

Well done pacific :) you can rest easy!

Wight link travel updates saying nada yet.

I think so, the storm should calm down fairly early in the south on Christmas Eve. It won't be great weather, very windy but hopefully over the worst.

You are such a star, kitten!

Supposed to be skating in London tomorrow, at 11.15am.not winter wonderland, but think it's going to be a nightmare. If we can even get into Town!

You are both welcome :)

I don't think I'd enjoy skating tomorrow!

Thank you so much

You are welcome blastoff :)

Morning all, quick forecast now, more later when I'm out of bed!

So the storm seems to be perhaps a little slower in terms of main impact in Scotland tomorrow. Unfortunately the result is a storm that will perhaps linger into Christmas Day. However it is right on track today :( pressures are dropping rapidly as the low pressure bombs (and meets the criteria for that twice over).

Flooding might not be quite so bad, but I don't think it means we can relax about that. Wind I think might be an issue even in non warned areas so take it easy where ever you are.

I will eat my snotty tissue if the met office don't issue an amber for the SE for late tonight when it still looks likely that some of it will see gusts of 70-80mph. Other than that, there is still the snow for Scotland to contend with, but also I think perhaps welsh hills and the Pennines.

It's not raining here yet just a bit breezy. I'm sure it'll be nice and heavy when I have to go to work

We have some light rain and its a little blowy. I expect it to get a lot worse!

I think you're east of me (as I'm sitting here dd has just put a belt around my neck ) so I'm sure it's on its way!

West of you spotty :) am so glad I'm not going anywhere today, just pootling about with washing and whatnot.

Argh west is what I meant

Being strangled does tend to disrupt concentration somewhat

I'm sitting here in my kitchen looking out at the marsh towards the coast - light cloud, a tiny bit of sunshine, blowy.

Then I go into my living room and look out towards Tenterden/Maidstone/Ashford and its all so dark! I appear to be right on the edge.

How long have I got til I should get the washing in?

Oybbk, when you say chances of snow over the penines, where do you think that will be? We're near junction 22 of m62 and we'd love some snow tomorrow, if you can manage it, please.

Grey and dull here today, no wind to speak of.
More stormy in local M+S according DH's experience who has just come back from The Turkey Mission.

Happy Christmas week to you all

I think it will over the higher passes if it happens. Not great for those wanting to travel between sheffield and manchester!

And probably buxton. Buxton always gets it!

Pascha, Id get it in now if you havent already done so!

still a lot of concern today for the south from some well seasoned, notoriously calm forecasters.

kitten - would we be mental to drive into London now and be heading back to North essex at around 6 tonight - we are wavering have cancelled train tickets and were going to drive - now are completely in a mix and can't decide what to do.

we have tickets for charlie and chic factory which have been bought for us - going with friends - but hey are staying in london - we can't have to get back...

kingfisher, consider it carefully. Journey now will be ok. Have you got to go over the dartford crossing? Winds arent forecast to get really really strong until later tonight, so whilst my sensible hat says maybe not, if it were me I might go (cos I'm not always a 'do as I say' person)

So, the storm for Friday/Saturday:

At the moment gFS has it on the edge of NI by Thursday midnight. Its a different sort of set up from today, at the moment it is modelled to be a mature storm and slowly weakening as it moves over us. Nevertheless the central pressure is forecast to go down to 940hPa.

By Friday evening it will be affecting the whole of the UK with strong/gale force winds. The rain although heavy in places shouldnt be as problematic today, except that it will be falling on saturated ground. Id say at the moment the worst affected areas look to be northern england and the midlands, but this may well change. It is a very slow moving storm and unfortunately will cause issues right through Saturday for the north.

Outlook is for it to remain very unsettled but some hints of winter arriving in January.