Snow watch!!!!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

well, it looks like winter finally might be arriving!

First indications for snow are for this coming saturday as a low pressure draws in cold air . The met office arent really going for it at the moment, but the potential is certainly there. At the moment I'd say the biggest risk is for the midlands and central England.

After that there seems to be a cold few days but then the models start to disagree. GFS shows a positive snow fest for the 24th! masses of snow, but its a long way off and until we get much closer who knows what really will happen.

Yes we have a sleigh. My Grandad made it for my mum when she was little so it is proper wood. None of these platic things you get nowadays

Thanks for the update Kitty.

I heart OTBBK! Thank you for taking the time to do this!

You are so welcome Mo!
Unfortunately an emergency as come up at work and so I've got to go in for the evening! So update will be delayed. waah!!!

but at a quick glance gfs has rain through sat in the sw moving across the south and turning colder as it goes. Maybe some snow Sat night.

back later for a proper look.
sorry all!

I've just been added to the "critical workers" list at work because of the potential snopocalypse heading our way. Central Scotland between Edinburgh and Glasgow. Near to where the M8 was closed 2 years ago. So if it snows I get the great privilege of being able to work from home instead of getting a snow day

So am I going to be Grumpy working from home?

Changed to 95% chance for Sunday and now have 25% chance of snow Saturday!

Ohhh, thanks for the thread, i have been eagerly awaiting both the snow,and the mumsnet snow watch, cant believe I'm so late joining ( bloody work )

We have gone from 90% chance to 0% in the space of a few hours.

Trying to work out how much we might get.... Got 21% on sat, 90% on sun and 95% on Mon!!
If I add all the mm up and x 10 does that tell me how deep it will be?

95% for us on Sunday. I'm not having any of that, there will be zero snow.

roughly wommer! its a good guess anyway, but GFS often over does precip so take a bit off!

ECM is an absolute stunner on Wednesday -snowsnowsnow!! GFS utterly disagrees with it and brings in some milder air.

Well this weekend...
GFS shows Saturday being too mild really for snow away from hilly areas until the evening/night when the temps drop and then perhaps some snow in the south of England. Then Sunday perhaps some snow showers along eastern coastal counties, running on in a bit further through the wash and perhaps thames estuary.

The UKMO has snow for eastern scotland but rain for southern england. However fridays model run says 'Grid undefined' which means that for some reason a solution wasnt reached. So I wouldnt put too much credence on UKMO.

ECM - similar to gfs for saturday but then develops the cold deeper.

Ok, going to have a naughty beer and I probably wont be around for the next model update as I have to be up very early tomorrow. Might not get chance to do more than a quick glance tomorrow am. sorry. normal service will resume in a couple of days!

Cheers oybbk! Enjoy your beer

Am off to bed to dream of snow days!

Thank you for the update Kitten. Will see what you have to say in a few days time.

Lilleth, I will pop in with thoughts, just not comprehensive ones :)

Thanks Kitten.

Enjoy your beer :)

Xxx

I have looked at the sites but just cant understand them. Could anyone tell me what the % chance is for Newcastle upon tyne having snow Friday afternoon through to Saturday afternoon please?

Lottie, Friday none, Saturday not very much as the precip is further south.

Ok, we'll GFS is a bit of a disaster, not so cold and the block breaks down really quickly allowing the Atlantic to win next week. However, some fun and games for those in central through to southern England first, some rain, but also some snow, esp sat night into early Sunday.

ECM goes for cold with some brief incursions of warmer air into the sw for the first part of next week. Also shows some snow for sat night in the south.

UKMO temps are really marginal for the weekend. Central England may get snow, a bit of Saturday, more sat night, perhaps extending into southern England away from coasts.

Not as much of a snow fest overall I'm afraid.

Aren't you good kitten to put all your time into this, never mind if we don't get any snow....at least its not raining!

Thanks for keeping us updated kitten, even if its not good news

Is the GFS the final word, or is it still possible it could change again?

I'm starting to get very excited, 80% chance Saturday, 90% Sunday, 80% Monday, 80% Tuesday. Need to check with preschool what their snow policy is :)

Have a good day, OYBBK. Hope you know how much we appreciate you.

Thanks OYBB. I guess it's probably going to rain then... :(

So a couple of days of coldish then? Meh!

According to netweather we (in North Yorkshire) are going to get up to 80% snow on sat morning, but nothing again till at least Tuesday (I didn't look any further)

BBC suggests a bit more snow for my postcode. A bit sat morning, a bit sat night/sun morning and a bit monday.

Met Office suggests a bit of snow sat morning, sat night and thats it.

So if it does snow in North Yorkshire Im hoping it wont be too bad.

Still looking ok for London, 90% on Sunday...