OYBBK- chances of a white christmas?

[CherryMonster]

what do you think? will the uk be buried under 6 foot of snow, or will cheltenham be cold, wet and windy?

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

I think you might be right Delia, I'm not convinced that it will be much of a warm up.

Have you seen the thread about thursday's possible weather event? Iy looks really interesting!

[Deliaskis]

Yes, interested in what will transpire Thursday!

Ironically since posting earlier today, my very simple white Christmas at my parents house may have turned into schlepping to a reltaive's house halfway up a mountain in North Wales. At 33 weeks pregnant and high risk of snow, it might be wise to politely decilne but we're mulling it over!

Will hopefully be able to get a clearer pic of Christmas by mid-week, but it's odds on for a wintery one at the moment I reckon.

D

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

That sounds mad Delia!! (would be exciting if not preggers - visions of you all dressed in snow gear toiling your way up the mountain road )

GFS is rubbish for White Christmas lovers this morning. Never mind, plenty of time for it to change so lets just ignore it!

[mankyscotslass]

Do you think we will get a decent amount of snow here over the next week OYSSK?

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

you know manky - I think you might :)

[mankyscotslass]

We've just gone orange now !

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

lol - it is a very funny shape to the orange areas!

[mankyscotslass]

[SlartyBartFast]

is the snow going to come this weekend and then disappear

I hope it does, i have travel plans

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Slarty somehow the coming up to Christmas discussion has migrated to this thread come on over and see if your location has been discussed :)

[CherryTheRedNosedMonster]

any chance of a white christmas in cheltenham kitten? have just looked at met check and they reckon the temp could feel like -15 on saturday morning and sunday evening

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

at the moment CM I don't think so - the temps look set to rise (ironically like they did last year) just before Christmas. Could all change though - a long way off meteorologically speaking

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Ok, once again turning towards Christmas, GFS 06Z shows no warm up before Christmas now. Ice days for the majority all the way through. It does look quite dry from mid week on, so that maybe something to cling on to if that remains. A continuing and complicated snow risk up to mid week at least.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

little bump - back later :)

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Latest GFS is being consistent. Cold to and including Christmas day but dry at least for most from the 23rd on. Of course it will change but it's nice to look.

[MissAnthropy]

Why is there no snow in Norfolk? Why?

I'm considering moving house. Everywhere else is snowy.

I've been robbed.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

You have MissAnthropy - completely! slim chance of a shower over night for you.

[MissAnthropy]

A shower? I want bucket loads. And now.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

I know.
I could send you a bucket but it would get lost in the post and sit in a pO depot until Easter.

[sephrenia]

I'm with you there MissAnthropy! I totally want a bucket load but all the forecasts for Leeds say I stand a snowflakes chance in hell of getting much

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

I've looked past Christmas and GFS shows the warm up on Boxing day now with lots of sleet turning to rain showing. It is such a contrast to Christmas day (GFS showing in general cold and dry) that I'm not entirely convinced by how GFS is modelling Christmas at the moment. However it is consistent with another weather model ECMWF so perhaps it will be right.

[InkyStamp]

OYSSK - We are thinking of driving to S.Wales on Xmas eve from Herts - what are the chances of a)it being possible and b) us getting back?

Thanks!

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Inky - I can only talk about what I can see with todays model which may well be wrong by tomorrow. If nothing were to change at all i would say that your chances are very good - nice cold dry day on Christmas eve and much milder after.

I will come back to this thread frequently with the latest model runs, it will be better closer to the time when it comes into the range of other models I can see. Whether that will make it any more accurate though... (!)

[KatyMac]

I'm in Norfolk

I have snow - lots & lots of it