OYBBK- chances of a white christmas?

[CherryMonster]

what do you think? will the uk be buried under 6 foot of snow, or will cheltenham be cold, wet and windy?

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

lol Saltire! It the model is right they may need to hitch a ride on Father Christmas's sleigh.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Blimey - this mornings GFS run shows a really snowy Christmas day with subzero temps for most apart from the SW.

Cold with snowy interlude in the run up.

more later.

[ajandjjmum]

You're scaring me. Are we going to be able to get our exchange student to Heathrow from the Midlands on the 18th? She has to get home for Christmas.

[rosieposey]

Ahh the South West always misses out :( However i am hoping that for posterity N Wiltshire is not actually counted as SW if there is snow involved around Christmas I wasn't here for the last white Christmas so will be v v excited if we get one this year.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

don't worry both, this far out it is not exactly accurate, more of a 'just for fun' look really. aj, it does look cold around the 18th and there is probably going to be snow around. it depends on where the high pressure that will dominate our weather ends up. It looks either similar to last week or a more widespread risk of snow in general.

As we are getting a bit closer now I'll merge my discussions of the week to come into this thread, to try and make it a bit less confusing.

[Deliaskis]

OYSSK I've only just found the weather section here, and wondered if you would mind sharing where you get your GFS updates from? I have been watching GFS runs for years for the alps to help me predict ski/snow conditions for holidays, but haven't really got into doing this in the UK, but would like to. Do you use maps or wiggly graphs?

D

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

I mostly use maps from: wetterzentrale

sometimes if I want to know how confident gfs is feeling then I use netweathertv for ensembles.

I would love your opinion and interjection, especially if you think I'm misinterpreting and going a bit wrong - I am very very much an amateur at all of this.

[Deliaskis]

Ah OK, on the netweathertv link, are there any options to see that with precipitation along the bottom (scale on RHS)? I have used these www.wzkarten.de/pics/MS_1347_ens.png (which ironically I think are wetterzentrale too!) for likely snowfall in Austria (the one I linked to is for the area just south of Salzburg), and this for other areas www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1, but I'm never sure how narrow the geographical areas are.

I've not properly got used to reading the maps yet, but am trying! I too am very amateur, but very interested.

I'm struggling to view the maps on wetterzentrale at the moment, computer is having a bit of a moment, but will try and keep an eye on them. FWIW, meteociel ensembles are showing reasonable confidence for lower temps over Christmas, with just a couple of outlyers showing warmer temps, but precipitation is much less certain. Lots of activity from multiple lines after about the 16th though, so I think we can be pretty certain of more snow, just less certain of timing?

When I can get the maps viewing properly, can I come back for a proper amateur weather geek discussion?

D

[Deliaskis]

Just realised that sounds a bit desparate, don't worry, I'm not going to stalk you or anything !

D

[SantasMooningArse]

Ooh we're in the New Forest for Christmas; as long as we get tehre on the 20th snow would be most welcome.

We haven;t ahd any real amount yet so unlike the rest of the country we are not yet sick of it.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

that would be great Delia :) (Maybe not too indepth tonight, I'm struggling to stay awake this evening!)

I like that wzkarten with the precipitation, nice way to overlay the two graphs. I've not seen it before. You are right that it is part of wetterzentral, so we just need to find the uk equivilent.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Yes!!! here then 'GFS 1deg+gfs ens:' and from the pull down menu 'London' and 'Ensemble T850 und nds'

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

What the 00Z gfs shows:
Ok coming week:
Reasonable start, cold by night, not bad during the day. Some showers about :) then wednesday it shows some fairly widespread precipitation which could be a bit of a mix.
Friday sees the return of the deep deep cold with an increasing risk of snow for all.

Run up to christmas continues to show show a cold and snowy theme. Remember that confidence is pretty low for forecasting so far ahead.


For Christmas day it shows (just for fun):
A deepish low to the west of the uk, bringing in milder conditions to the west, the precipitation is only showing for Scotland, north Wales and Ireland. Cold in the east.

[CherryTheRedNosedMonster]

this isnt fair! i started this thread, and it looks like i will be the only one not getting a white christmas . i want snow too!!!! (am in sw)

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

cherry - don't take the models seriously at this range - anything could happen.... (apart from maybe a heatwave)

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

maryz - can I get back to you in the morning? I'm just heading off to bed but wanted you to know I'm not ignoring you!

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

Today's 00Z gfs shows a gradual warming trend in the week running up to Christmas coming from the sw and south. Snow perhaps for some away from these areas.

A snowy midnight on Christmas eve away from the south and west where it would be rainy then positive temps for all at midday Christmas day. Mild in the SW and Ireland I'm afraid. In northern England and parts of Scotland temps are close to freezing (and I suspect locally in Scotland they would in this scenario be below freezing) Precipitation showing for Wales up but too close to call what sort it would be for some. Rain/sleet and snow likely depending on how far north you are.

[duckyfuzz]

so a snowy Christmas in the NE is on the cards? Might need to get parents up here early (or maybe not )!

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

I'm not quite sure which models met eireann use as I can't see any for you until perhaps thursday maryz.

duckyfuzz maybe :) looks cold, just impossible to tell where exactly the snow will be. Just the sw and the western side of england this time showing as being too warm

just looked at overnight temps on the 23rd. I think gfs is having a laugh as it is going for -17C in the west midlands overnight.

[OhYouSnowySnowyKitten]

models are still wobbling about (as I'd expect them to be) They are consistent in showing cold for the northern half of the UK and mild for the SW but not at all consistent for the inbetween bit. A lot of precipitation showing for Christmas day in this latest run.

[Deliaskis]

Oooh good find OYSSK, I had never managed to find something like that but it was there all the time!

So reasonable confidence now up to about the 19th (BIG dip to cold around the 16th!), and then a bit less confident, but I'm quite pleased with the bunching of most lines around the control and main runs. I agree with slowly getting slightly less cold, and 'personally' would still be pretty confident of 'hovering' around zero temps and some precipitation on Christmas day, but maybe that's just my optimism (being one who wants a white Christmas, as I only have to walk round to my parents house!).

Still need to get my head round the maps properly as then I will better understand likelihood of things moving and forthcoming 'influences'.

D

[ben5]

it's going to be sunny and 35 here, or so they say!!!
bar b q on the beach?!!