Tell Me Lies Tell Me Sweet Little Lies | Traitors 2026 | Thread 7 | Spoiler Free!

[CaveMum]

Link to previous thread: https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/telly_addicts/5473255-whispers-in-the-confessional-traitors-2026-thread-6-spoiler-free?page=1

Welcome to Thread 7 of Traitors 2026.

This thread runs at TV pace so do not read any further if you are not up to date with the live broadcast. Whilst most discussion will be on the current series, inevitably people will refer to previous series/players/winners so reader beware if you’ve not seen the 3 previous editions, or the celebrity version.

While we welcome posters discussing their theories and speculating on relationships/connections between players, please don’t post spoilers from elsewhere that may ruin things for those of us who like to see things unfold over the course of the series.

The story so far (as at end of Ep 6):

Traitors
Hugo
Rachel
Stephen
Fiona (Secret Traitor)

Murdered
Netty
Ben
Maz
Reece

Banished
Judy (Faithful)
Hugo (Traitor)
Ross (Faithful)
Amanda (Faithful)
Fiona (Traitor)

This thread is starting mid-way through Episode 7, so goodness only knows what is going to happen in the Round Table Showdown that is brewing.

The floor is yours…

@peacefulpeach because I am SUPER cool I have just found all the details of the past 4 + celeb seasons on wikipedia, and my equally cool DH has done a whizzy thing on excel and we have concluded:

Probability of leaving early based on age

Under 30 44.7%
30–45 46.4%
Over 45 64.5%

Probability of leaving early based on gender it's actually 50:50

Probability of leaving early based on (a visual assumption on) heritage
White 49.3%
Black 50.0%
Mixed heritage 68.8

Early being the first half of the game.

But when you start to mix those criteria it becomes pretty apparent that you're more likely to reach the final 5 if you're white and young. Percentages don't take into account the age/gender/ethnicity balance to begin with though. Was a pretty quick and dirty analysis whilst we should both definitely be working :P

My level of geekiness, love it!!!

That’s a good point!

Sadly not, I was a teacher for a very long time, it’s ingrained in me now 😊

Her face reminds me of a goose in earrings
😂 😂😂 You made my day!

I actually think she would be the conniving person at work, smiling in your face while getting you fired.

I think it matters whether people leave because they're murdered or banished, though. Murdered usually means they're clever, influential or both; a threat to the Traitors. Banished means the group turned on them and that's different.

I love the analysis.

I wonder if it would be different if the celeb version was taken out, as I think level of fame might have been more of a factor there and I would hate for that to skew the results

@PuppyMonkey if they unsuccessfully murder everyone might assume they’ve recruited though

Easy enough to say a traitor could have tried to murder someone in their own group to put themselves above suspicion.

@LighthouseLED @ThatCyanCat 😈 do think removing the celeb thing would help. We've made a note of banished vs murdered, very anecdotally I'd say it looks like ethnicity more of a thing for murder, older female for banishment. But will check the percentages when the kids are in bed

It's also skewed because not all the seasons have the same number of people, wouldn't be a statistician!

They all have 22 other than the celeb version I think… but you can easily control for the different numbers.

What about disability? Because it’s interesting that a lot of the finalists do have a disability. There was Meryl and molly. Perhaps others who got far that I’ve forgotten. Also I think we can all agree Jessie will make the final if she doesn’t get killed. It’s interesting to me.

@LighthouseLED there were 25 in season 3, 22 in the rest! DH is the one for working out control stuff, I can muck around with a pivot table but he's a wizz. Will have to go through it together later!

@butimamonstersaidthemonster I briefly considered it might didn't have that detail readily available on wiki so would be very much a visual assessment, and that felt sketchy enough with ethnicity at times!!

That perfectly describes Fiona, smiling assassin

Oh yes, I mean Jessie.

I was busy trying not to confuse Matt with Adam, then this! 😂.

Oh, were there? No wonder I’ve forgotten most of them!

Jake from season 3 as well

He'll say they said they'd murder Jessie but won't reveal the whole convo. I feel he'll do a Harriet without the shouting or anger 😅.
Just a theory.

GREAT book

True, youtube guy on the celebrity one survived because he's young.

NO! There just isn’t a murder. Nobody knows whether they tried to murder a shielded player and failed, or chose to recruit instead. It keeps everyone guessing!

There must be a lot of redoing things or doing things especially for camera and that must get wearing.
I wonder if Harriet had had enough of it.
Maybe the younger ones have more patience for that sort of thing.

That’s not how it’s worked in other series - the shielded player is told