Strictly '21 #6: Saturday Night at the Movies, Who Cares What Dances We See?

[PolkadotsAndMoonbeams]

Last thread here.

Well, we care, because we're picky like that!

The Strictly chatter continues...

SmellyOldOwls

Onlinedilema
According to dh the bookies are saying John will win. It's hardly worth getting on. I think they are usually right.

I don't know...I think you can be too good on Strictly. It turns people off after a while.

I agree

Yesterday 23:03 JayAlfredPrufrock

I didn’t notice them, but pray, what have mr and mrs beckham got to do with Robert Webb?

The above mentioned D&V are apparently great friends of the Ramsays though, so it’s not entirely out of the question that they’ll show up if Tilly stays in

Yesterday 21:04 SequinsandStiIettos

Loved AJ Rose John and Ugo but suspect all are safe so voted for Robert, Tilly and Judi.

Hard to resist, I know, but tactical voting can backfire sometimes... that’s how we lost the brilliant Aston Merrigold way too early a few years ago. I remember voting for Molly and AJ that week, thinking Aston and Janette were safe, then being livid when Shitley saved AJ and M in the dance off.

@Bluffinwithmymuffin

That’s where my mind was, with the Ramsay’s.

Aston was second from bottom the week he went though. He'd had an absolute shocker and wasn't remotely safe - although I can see why people might have assumed that
he'd have a boyband fan base voting for him en masse.

By comparison this week with so many people left in the competition AJ, J&J and Rose are almost certainly safe even if literally nobody votes for them. It would take a huge mathematical fluke to overturn the leader board enough to get two of the front runners in the dance-off.

I remember when Johannas first joined SCD, he was emotional and extremely grateful.

I remember that too, he said something along the lines of how wonderful it was to be accepted and how he could just be himself. This must be the icing on the cake for him.

John's paso shaping was lacking for me. Must rewatch it though. I'm just mesmerised when I watch them but their connection is so intense i feel a bit uncomfortable, like I'm watching something private. Very strange. Will be interesting to see how things develop over the next few weeks (from a dancing point of view).

I just wish they’d go back to doing a second live show on the Saturday night with the results instead of this stupid pre-recorded show on Sunday when the result is already out there for people to find.

It just makes it all so flat. I don’t generally bother with the Sunday show unless the singer is someone I want to see whereas if they just did it live, I’d watch.

On Gorka, I follow Gemma on Instagram and whenever he pops up on there he does come across as quite serious. I wonder if he’s just all business when it comes to training whereas a few other pros are more relaxed, going for dinner, etc? He also has a young family, wonder if he resents being away for a celeb who’s not 100% committed (which Katie doesn’t seem to be, to be fair. She has all the components to be good but something’s not clicking)

EvilRingahBitch
By comparison this week with so many people left in the competition AJ, J&J and Rose are almost certainly safe even if literally nobody votes for them. It would take a huge mathematical fluke to overturn the leader board enough to get two of the front runners in the dance-off.

That’s what I struggle with... the maths Never completely sure how the scoring works!

Sorry if its a bit late in the thread but did anyone think Adam Peaty as Avatar was absolutely gorgeous and very undermarked.

@Embroidery

Sorry if its a bit late in the thread but did anyone think Adam Peaty as Avatar was absolutely gorgeous and very undermarked.

I didn't like the dance much, but DD and I both commented that he was more attractive blue! Don't know why 🤷‍♀️

@Embroidery

Sorry if its a bit late in the thread but did anyone think Adam Peaty as Avatar was absolutely gorgeous and very undermarked.

Yes! I mean, he is attractive anyway but did look particularly hot last night 🔥

Oh, and definitely undermarked! Not the worst dance at all no mistakes, unlike others, and seemed ok for a rumba!

The camera work for Adam and Katya's dance was a bit off. The final bit of their dance was missed as the virtual tree was blocking them. Obviously the judges and studio audience saw but it was really difficult to watch for the viewers at home.

Yes, I didn't vote for any of my favourite dances last night because the maths made it highly improbable that they would be in the Bottom Two and I would have been squandering my votes. At this stage of the competition it's really unlikely that the celebs near the top of the leaderboard will end up in the Bottom Two, just as it's really hard for those at the bottom of the leaderboard to escape the Bottom Two in the later stages. In the middle it gets more risky for a good dancer having a bad week or just not inspiring the public to vote. They've always got the safety net of the judges saving them, though.

I wonder if some contestants manage to negotiate their contract to include the clause "no stupid costumes will be worn," and some don't.

Someone anyone to Robert Webb in the green room: "Did your agent not know you can stipulate your type of costumes? Bummer, dude."

I'm now tempted to try and work to generalise the maths but I think it's beyond my slightly rusty stats.

Basically because you add the judges ranking to the audience ranking the top two marked performers can only end up in the bottom two against each other if the GBP vote in the precise opposite order to the judges. The more contestants there are the less likely that is. With three contestants the chances that the judges vote ABC and the GBP vote CBA is one in six, so not that unlikely. Once you get up to ten contestants the odds of that happening are millions to one against. With fourteen it's inconceivably small. The same applies in reverse to the most popular contestants - except that they might be vulnerable in the dance-off so need to be kept out of the dance-off full stop not just protected from being in the dance-off against another top-ranked dancer.

It's all pretty complicated but off the top of my head I'd say that where N is the number of contestants minus the number of ties on the leaderboard, the judges can keep their (N/2)-2 favourite contestants safe barring a massively unlikely coincidence on the voting.

I like Gorka as a pro. When Anastacia danced with him instead of Brendan (who really didn't get along with a lot of his partners) she seemed so much happier. I think the fact that he lives in Manchester and has a young daughter means he probably doesn't get to hang out with his ex-celebs as much as he might otherwise. It also means that he might get partnered with someone like Katie because it's geographically convenient, rather than because they've got chemistry. They'd showed on ITT that Hollyoaks isn't leaving Katie much time to train, and that's only going to get worse in the next few weeks as they start filming the big Christmas storylines, so that might be frustrating for him. My impression from Katie's last two dances is that she's not terrible but she looks under-rehearsed.

Evil
Basically because you add the judges ranking to the audience ranking the top two marked performers can only end up in the bottom two against each other if the GBP vote in the precise opposite order to the judges. The more contestants there are the less likely that is. With three contestants the chances that the judges vote ABC and the GBP vote CBA is one in six, so not that unlikely. Once you get up to ten contestants the odds of that happening are millions to one against. With fourteen it's inconceivably small. The same applies in reverse to the most popular contestants - except that they might be vulnerable in the dance-off so need to be kept out of the dance-off full stop not just protected from being in the dance-off against another top-ranked dancer.

Thank you for explaining it in a way my very non-mathematical brain can understand- just about. I will commit the above to memory and forget about n minus whatever it was .

@DietrichandDiMaggio

I appreciate Johannes is a great dancer, but I get fed up with how much everything is made to be about him, both in the celeb pairing and within the show generally. The dancers' job is to make the celebs look as good as possible, and not to make it about them, but he doesn't seem to have got that message, nor does he get called out for out-dancing his partner, whereas other pros do.

I completely agree with this - puts me right off him!

The maths - take the number of contestants and that’s the max number of points. Whoever is bottom of the leader board gets 1 point, whoever is top gets the max number of points and everyone else gets points based on their position on the leader board. Then the same happens with the public vote - whoever is bottom of the public vote gets 1 point and whoever is top gets the max number of points and so on. Then both sets of points are added together. So if you’re bottom of the leader board and bottom of the public vote you would have 2 points (1+1). If you’re top of the leader board but bottom of the public vote you would have 15 points (14 + 1), so you can see how tricky it would be for someone at the bottom of the leaderboard to knock off someone at the top. As others have said people are less safe the fewer couples there are because of the way the maths is done.

@winterescape

I just wish they’d go back to doing a second live show on the Saturday night with the results instead of this stupid pre-recorded show on Sunday when the result is already out there for people to find.

It just makes it all so flat. I don’t generally bother with the Sunday show unless the singer is someone I want to see whereas if they just did it live, I’d watch.

I agree

Especially now that the Xfactor isn't on now and that was the reason to have a Sunday show because the Xfactor did and people were at a loose end of what to watch. So watched all of Xfactor and none of strictly or something

I like having the results on Sunday. If the results show was on Saturday after the main show it would be too late for kids to stay up and watch, and I like having something to watch on a Sunday!

Not being bitchy but …..

Katy seems totally lacking in any real personality. I thought it was the part she was playing in Corrie but she comes across as the same on SCD. It’s all a bit joyless.

I’m sure she’s lovely off screen.