Have read all the threads with interest!
I struggle with the idea of it being a planned abduction due to the random nature of the car breakdown so either it was essentially opportunistic or James was the real target.
If it was opportunistic then Alain/Sylvie would surely be the most likely people for Olleh to go with.
~Did Sylvie post the Bastille Day pic or was it a Facebook friend of hers? If her then I think she did it deliberately to lure back Tony.
~Alain is dead, she knew his secret and it was time for it to come out.
~I think that the link with the Romanian gang is through Georges, who was also involved/had links to them through his corruption and was used to getting them to help out.
~Sylvie may have been waiting in some way for Ian to be declared dead, not sure why?
Thoughts re Ian:
~Ian was not involved with Olleh's disappearance directly but was scared that if Vincent was properly investigated links to Ian would be found (image sharing, money).
~Do we really know anything about Molly other than what we have been told by Ian/Mary? Maybe Ian simply created "Molly" but actually Vincent is the child who was the mistake? Vincent aka Molly is Mary's child who was abused by Ian then sent away to live with relatives in France. Hence Ian's hold over him being threats to hurt his mother.
Thoughts re Malik:
~He doesn't really know what happened but he has linked Tony to Ian's disappearance. He thinks that Vincent will confirm being involved and Ian but in fact he has it wrong.
If it was planned, with James being the real target, then this would suggest Mark being key.
~not really a British cop, something much murkier/undercover
~James targeted as revenge/blackmail attempt
~he has always known this but kept quiet, initially so as not to break cover but then because he loved Emily.