What will it take for the Government to enact welfare reform?

[Schlossadler]

What has to break, before the Government is finally willing to enact welfare reform?

I would remove the triple lock and means test state pensions. Means test PIP and make it only for those with the most severe disabilities.
Invest in significant benefit fraud investigations, actually look at who is getting what.
Scrap the not fit for purpose NHS and create a partly paid for system with a safety net for those who absolutely can’t pay.
And yes, reintroduce the two child benefit cap.
Clearly, I’d never be voted in!!!

With inflation now expected to rise to 4.5% next year, not only does that pump up the welfare bill massively, but every 1% rise in inflation adds an extra £8bn to the annual cost of index linked gilts.

This Government are in a far more perilous position than many realise. If they don't cut spending hard and fast, they will face a crisis that makes the Liz Truss debacle look like a vicarage tea party.

Reform don’t want power they want to be an opposition party. If they got into power they would be useless, bit like Angela Rayner - only useful for the attack.

The welfare bill has increased massively under Labour! You can’t keep blaming ‘14 years of tories’ when Labour have been in term long enough to show improvements. It’s going up, along with unemployment and along with debt.

Pensioners are the biggest beneficiaries of welfare and their votes win elections

Irrelevant.

How ANYONE believed Starmer in the run up to the GE, when he said Labour would “tread lightly” or Reeves when she announced tax rises as a “one off” is beyond me.

I worry when people say cuts lead to additional costs elsewhere as though it’s inevitable that those other costs in those other areas would be met. If we end up in a bond crisis and a knife is taken to the economy, I think it’s very likely to be the case that those suffering from the cuts that are undertaken are just left to suffer and the crisis that erupts from those issues is just left as a disaster on our streets.

Same

Benefit fraud is rare and adds just 2.2% to the welfare bill. Investigating it costs money, almost as much as is lost to the fraud in the first place. Throwing more money at benefit fraud investigation therefore isn't likely to give a worthwhile return on investment.

I agree with @Octavia64 - MPs are never going to effectively vote themselves out.

It’s difficult to take things away, so I think perhaps there could be some kind of universal basic income, pitched below minimum wage, and this would be instead of disability benefits. Motability cars only for physical disabilities (I do know someone who has a car for anxiety - absolute racket).

The two-child benefit cap should be restored immediately and the triple lock should go.

Just seen that Labour are planning some sort of tax raid on holiday cottages. That’ll raise hardly anything. And although I don’t have a holiday cottage, I do like staying in them so the cost will be passed on 😭

Where are all the jobs for 16-24 year olds?

I don't blame them for claiming. It's the best time of their lives. Finished school, having a go at being independent and ready for the next stage in life.

Exept, they are stuck living at home, have no way of earning more than a few quid pocket money and slowly loosing hope of a better, independent future.

The two-child benefit cap should be restored immediately

1. Not all pregnancies are conceived with the mother's consent.
2. No rape victim should have to disclose her rape to feed her child.
3. Child Benefit exists for children, not their parents.
4. No child asked to be born.

Entry-level jobs are being made obsolete by large language models (that's "AI" to you) and self-service everything. That self-service checkout you paid for your meal deal lunch at used to be a staffed five-items-or-fewer checkout.

Of course youth unemployment is on the rise.

I would remove the triple lock and means test state pensions. Means test PIP and make it only for those with the most severe disabilities.

Scrap the not fit for purpose NHS and create a partly paid for system with a safety net for those who absolutely can’t pay.

reintroduce the two child benefit cap

I would vote for most of your policies theyneverchangedothey,
unfortunately no party is brave enough to re-invent the NHS.

Plenty of reasons. Firstly, welfare reform isn’t just cuts (which, if done badly will just shift the cost elsewhere). I think Andy Burnham actually understands that and is serious about making the kind of pragmatic, long term reforms we actually need - he has a good record on both preventative health care and vocational training for young people in Manchester.

Secondly, what the PLP rebellion was about a fixed cut, that the PLP saw as arbitrary and punitive. Andy Burnham isn’t going to do that - he’s not rushing to put a figure out to appease the populist right: he’s listening to independent reviews, and will presumably shape his plans accordingly.

He’s also the most popular political leader in the country - that buys him good will from both the PLP and the public.

It’ll still be very, very difficult because (as this thread proves) so much debate around welfare is based on simplistic, populist clamouring for instant solutions.

I do think he has a chance though.

The UK is a democracy. The point is the ELECTORATE don't support the abolition of the NHS.

We need to cut the “welfare bill” by getting the lazy and feckless into work and not making others bear the costs of their poor (/lack of) life planning and decision making:

1. limit how long someone gets job seekers or equivalent for. Anyone looking for more than 6 months either isn’t properly looking or is expecting jobs / salaries they’re not qualified for. No-one should take more than 6 months to find a new job
2. stop paying child benefit to more than 2 children. No-one needs more than 2 children. Most who would love more than 2 (me included) know we can afford them so choose not to have them. Yet our govt hands out more and more money to those that keep popping them out despite not being able to afford them. Why?
3. stop paying PIP + other disability related payments to those that aren’t helping themselves ie many mental health illnesses. Yes they’re real illnesses. Yes they can often be prevented or treated by getting some structure and discipline in your life ie doing a job
4. make those on unemployment related handouts do community work (simple unskilled manual jobs like street cleaning, park maintenance, etc etc) for a portion of their time off. I don’t get the argument of “but looking for a job is a full time job”. What a load of rubbish. Work expands to fill the time available. Most people find a new job whilst already in a job. It’s not a full time job in its own right

we should also make work pay and more attractive for all:

1. cut ludicrous cliff edge cut offs like £100k childcare limits. Why should earning £1 extra cost you £ks. Makes no sense
2. make childcare (inc nurseries) free to all that work. All year round not just term time. And truly free
3. remove the 60% marginal rate at £100k+.
4. stop making those that already contribute the most contribute even more. Simplify the tax system (= save money administering it) by giving everyone a flat rate tax of say 25%

Provide better support to those in society that need it:

1. better disability support for those that truly need it. The current allowances are a pittance for those that actually need it.
2. Better (managed and funded) healthcare system
3. better support for those in care (young and elderly)

Improve GDP by

1. better schools and universities including stopping teachers having a day off at cost to the economy every time there’s a faint gust of wind or flutter of snow: make them provide childcare even if they can’t teach to keep the economy going for a day
2. upskilling the workforce: better schools and universities
3. investing in national infrastructure (inc streamlining the planning processes) that enables a thriving economy

He just need to stop the dithering and decrease spending. No more kicking the can down the road. One would assume as he deposed KS in order to become PM he had some sort of plan to reduce the benefits bill....although currently he is increasing it so it appears the economy is not a priority for him anyway.

One can only hope.

The real problem is that all the choices are shit, just wrapped in different colours. I'm tired of voting for the least shit option. I'd love, just once, to have someone I actually wanted to vote for.

The triple lock will go - it’s brought pensioner living standards up, time to go now. PIP will be reformed - less emphasis on cash and more on actual help.

limit how long someone gets job seekers or equivalent for. Anyone looking for more than 6 months either isn’t properly looking or is expecting jobs / salaries they’re not qualified for. No-one should take more than 6 months to find a new job

Tell me that you've never lived somewhere rural without a driving licence without telling me...

A lot of interviews I had for low-level roles ended with "We'd love to give you the job, but we cannot accommodate your [earliest possible start time / latest possible finish time]". Those times were dictated by the earliest and latest buses.

The first job I got after passing my test had a 5am start. I borrowed my mum's car to get there whilst she took a week's precious annual leave to enable me to do that. Spent my first week's wages plus a loan that ate up several more week's wages on a fifth-hand runabout that I kept for the next six years.

That put the experience on my CV for the next job.

One thing that the Job Centre will not pay for is driving lessons, unless you hold a written job offer that's conditional on a test pass. No employer who needs you to drive will offer you a job without you already having a licence...

The short version of your plan is:
Push up crime through destitution, make more kids live in poverty, further reduce the national birth rate, increase government borrowing for tax cuts, plus loads of additional spending from who knows where.

The benefit fraud figure is "best guess" at best. Unlike countries like Denmark our systems don't talk to each other.

If a woman is raped she should report it to the police. She can have an abortion. In this country no woman has to give birth to her rapist’s child.