What will it take for the Government to enact welfare reform?

[Schlossadler]

What has to break, before the Government is finally willing to enact welfare reform?

Like what? What do you envisage this “welfare reform” looking like? And costing?

Losing the election .

How did you come to that conclusion?

Exactly what lind of reform?

I think it entirely depends what you mean by welfare reform. If what you mean by welfare reform is badly thought through, punitive cuts that just push government costs up elsewhere - into housing or health or education - then hopefully never. If you mean long term, strategic reforms that will genuinely get people back into work, then hopefully soon.

The Timms review is due to publish its recommendations in November, so I think we’ll start hearing more about reforms to disability benefits specifically from that point onwards.

Cuts? Economic collapse. The PLP will not allow it before then unfortunately.

The way you've phrased your question doesn't sound like you're coming from a very neutral position. So, before anyone can give you a sensible response, it might be helpful if you set out what you think "welfare reform" looks like and perhaps what you think should or will "break"?

The middle earners? I think maybe they’ll have to ‘break’ and just spend all their savings, quit their jobs and join those on benefits. Because they feel like they are busting their asses to live as well as their benefit claiming counterparts.

100% agree

Because they have already tried and were defeated.

Elaborate please because I don’t see the link

Oh shit

are you talking about Reform? Is that what you think will sort welfare?

the IMF

Another agree.

This government won't do it. Ever.

The issue is that Tory would, but they have no chance of getting majority.

I'm not going to comment on Reform - if they form government we're screwed in such a way that welfare reform will be irrelevant

Do you mean so our 3 trillion debt borrowing doesn’t escalate further or do you mean that welfare is badly run and inadequate?

I doubt @Schlossadler knows what she/he means

But the Torys have had 14 long years and didn't have much impact. Why would it be different if they tried again? Thoughtful redesigning the welfare system takes insight and care, otherwise the extra spending just gets shoved into health/housing etc

No I'm not talking about Reform. You asked how a PP came to the conclusion that loosing the election will be the only way welfare reform would happen.
I agreed with that comment on the basis that Labour have already tried to push through changes to benefits and were defeated by their own MP'S.

But the Tories didn’t and couldn’t do it either - the welfare bill went up under them, in part because of the pandemic - which we’re still feeling the impacts from, but also because it’s easy to talk about cuts but the reality is much harder. We found again and again under Tory austerity - short-sighted cutting just pushes costs up elsewhere. Welfare reform is not the same as welfare cuts. Yes, the welfare bill needs to come down - but in reality, no government will be able to make that happen overnight. But I do think we now at least have a government, under Andy Burnham, who are more pragmatic and less afraid of articulating the need for strategic, long term reform.

Hi, keen to engage with you on the economic realities.

Lets go.

I think we need to make cuts across the board -this will be described as too expensive to make it worth doing but in the long term cuts will help.
the winter fuel allowance which should have been a straightforward thing to cut £200 or thereabouts -hardly life changing -and a sop brought in by Gordon Brown to get him back into power - was supposedly a tragic disaster for pensioners. Really???? When they see the cost of energy this winter everyone will complain.
So cuts across the board then it’s harder for one section to claim disaster.

@Busymorn

Are you there? Ok, I shall go first...:

I think that we need a triple lock for taxpayers: limits on the total PIP pot, universal credit and housing benefits. It’s clear that a fully open-ended system isn’t sustainable and some form of rationing would ensure the most deserving retain benefits, while clearing out marginal cases.

Whats your view?

It will be a sovereign debt crisis. The UK is spending vastly above its means and has welfare provisions where it has no control - pensions guaranteed to increase indefinitely faster than the economy and generous self-certified PIP payments, supplemented by lots of additional allowances to remove incentives for lower paid work. It can't continue and at some point the bond markets will force the government to deal with it.