I’m calling the date of the next General Election

[Lettucelet]

Thursday 24 October 2024.

My logic is thus:

1. Tory MPs with kids in private school will want the election after the next academic year starts so that they will get an extra year VAT free while Labour gets its house in order. This is why Jeremy Hunt said the election wouldn’t happen until the Autumn.

2. Tory MPs will want to take full advantage of the summer holidays/recess so they won’t want to campaign in July/August when they could be on a yacht instead.

3. Term will start Week Commencing Monday 9 October at the latest. They will want to have a week to sort things out.

4. So, 6 weeks after the Thursday of the week after 9 September is Thursday 24 October which fits in nicely with half term and they can go on holiday again.

Place your bets.

At the moment, Labour would need a bigger swing than they did when Blair won, so Sunak probably wants to get in before this becomes more likely than it is now.

TBH, I think it's in the balance. Starmer isn't covering himself in glory. Much as I want the current bunch out, I am not sure it will happen :(

@Zonder do you think he’s about to announce something completely different outside No 10 in the next few minutes?

Rumour has it that it’s a montage of possible Californian properties from the US equivalent of Right Move. 😀

Chris Mason just mentioning the 20 point poll lead that Theresa May had going into the 2017 election campaign.

In terms of swing though it does seem the Labour vote is far better geographically distributed now.

I've got a tenner on the Tories winning....

What odds did you get on that?

He’s at the podium now.

Can’t see the property montage yet - may be it was just a baseless rumour.😁

Some idiot is playing Things can only get better over him

4th July confirmed. Bring it on!

No but when I commented that he hadn't put the lectern out yet and you can't bank on anything with Sunak.

Is no one there to turn it off pointless

I quite like the background music. Is it that anti Brexit Steve bloke who the Tories hate but don’t hat him as much as he loathes them?

You'd think so. It's really annoying because I want to hear what he's saying.

Sorry; appreciate it is likely to be an unpopular opinion here but disappointed to hear the blasting out of a tinny ‘things can only get better’ while the election announcement is being made’. There’s a time and place…it feels disrespectful - and no, I’m not a convinced Cons voter.

Quieter now. Odd they cannot move someone on. Now cheering!

The rain is going to ruin that suit. Still he can probably just about stretch to a new one.

Still going as journalists speak. How irritating they are with that

@Janome9300 10:1. It was along time ago!

We can but hope.

Love it!

Sir John Curtice just talking now

Poor Rishi. His last podium stand as PM and he’s drowned out by tinny music and pouring rain. This is being broadcast to the world.

That's brilliant not idiotic.

Could he not manage a gazebo?

Most of the world won't give a fuck about our election.

That depends on whether you want to hear what's he's saying which I did as he was making an important announcement.