I’m calling the date of the next General Election

[Lettucelet]

Thursday 24 October 2024.

My logic is thus:

1. Tory MPs with kids in private school will want the election after the next academic year starts so that they will get an extra year VAT free while Labour gets its house in order. This is why Jeremy Hunt said the election wouldn’t happen until the Autumn.

2. Tory MPs will want to take full advantage of the summer holidays/recess so they won’t want to campaign in July/August when they could be on a yacht instead.

3. Term will start Week Commencing Monday 9 October at the latest. They will want to have a week to sort things out.

4. So, 6 weeks after the Thursday of the week after 9 September is Thursday 24 October which fits in nicely with half term and they can go on holiday again.

Place your bets.

I'll take a punt on Oct 17th too. Some schools have two week half terms so it would get it out of the way. Also avoids the US election and the King's Birthday.

December, or mid-January.

They'll want as long as possible to keep their noses in the trough, and they'll also want the weather to be as miserable as possible to depress turnout in the hope a few more of them cling on to their majorities.

He doesn't care about traditional Tory values such as wallpaper and the gardens. He's all about the modern Tory values of benefiting family and investors at the cost of UK citizens.

I think mid December

campaigning while the US are in the last few weeks if campaigning will completely over shadow what is going on here simply because the US elections are more entertaining

but that Labour being over shadowed a little might benefit the Tories slightly

also the economy may have improved slightly by then so a few may return to the Tories

A couple of the MPs DH works alongside reckon 14th November. Conference out the way at the start of October and then immediately call the election.

I think that's too close to the US elections.

The bookmakers seem to show Oct and Nov at 2/1. I don’t think we get involved in the USA election nor they in ours. The lead up to it and campaigning is busy here and in USA. So the date won’t matter and the bookies agree. If it’s autumn for both, both countries will see heavy campaign activity.

We don't get involved but our media is all over it usually.

My vote is 21st Nov. Avoids US elections, gets it past the party conference season and doesn't clash with King's birthday (although KC is unlikely to care). Weather still pleasant enough to get the voters out and before Xmas kicks in.

@Zonder Some are. But not all political journalists. We do have more coverage of home events especially on tv. We don’t get wall to wall USA campaigning. Just highlights.

By the end of the year inflation will have gone down to 2% roughly, Sunak will say that he kept his promise on that.

My guess is anytime from October onwards, but they’ll be conscious of the US elections in November. The next GE could be held as late as January 2025 though

He has to give 6 weeks, that takes us to mid-June if he were to call one this week, he has 10 weeks to Summer recess. So he could call one in the next few weeks and have it at the start of July. Leaving Summer for party members to look at new leaders and then conference season to vote them in.

My guess is he'll wait to see how the local results go and then decide. He'll want as many people to turn out as possible so he won't have it during half term, so I think December will be the latest he'll have it. January is a shit month and people won't want to go out when the weather is shit.

The people I know who work in Local Government and organise the elections are already preparing for a GE, they were actually expecting him to have called one by now.

I thought the GE notice period was 3 weeks, but it looks like it is 25 days from the dissolution of parliament.

These are the potential dates it could be called and when it would take place if called on those dates.

From this link https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9921/

Heĺlo Everybody.

Thank you for that information. I've made a note of it. I certainly don't want to miss it, although I was planning of having some time off then - I've already booked Larry into the cattery.

Hi Rishi. I despise everything you and your government stand for and have done. And I hope your parliamentary researchers are reading this. Fckers.

Totally love the fact a mumsnetter, the op, thinks the election will be all about school hols 😂

The OP knows the Tory MP mindset very well 🫡

If you did then you’d know school hols isn’t uppermost in their minds.,that’s more a female thing..

Yeah. Female MPs and wives of MPs. Lots of females.

And male MPs want their summer hols too even if the sea is closed.

Remember this when he became PM

"This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level."
lol 😂

I reckon it will be July. Some of their dog whistle stuff is getting the ‘right’ publicity (Rwanda). They won’t want to risk much time for more scandals or problems.

I think he probably has a future in comedy, although he probably doesn't realise how amusing he is.