"That relies on a very meritocratic and robust system which didn’t and doesn’t exist"
Yes, what I said was very much an over simplification. Was that group who took A levels and the group who were the most academically able exactly co-terminus? No.
However, was there a very great deal of overlap between the two groups? I would suggest that there was. So, the simplification I used was not unwarranted.
"But I don’t think the growth in numbers doing A levels csn be used to demonstrate they got easier."
That wasn't the argument I was making (sorry if my post was unclear).
My point was not about how hard or easy A Levels are or were, but that the exam itself grew from grading around 15% of the school population (who, I argue, were mostly at the very top of the academic ability scale) to around 45% of the school population today.
My argument is that somebody who was on the 85th percentile of academic ability will likely outperform somebody who is on the 55th percentile.
Somebody who was on the 85th percentile in the 1980s (and so be at the bottom of those taking A Levels) would likely achieve a similar result as somebody on the 85th percentile today.
As you say, that relies on there having been a very meritocratic and robust system for it be exact.
No that didn't exist, but I would still say that it was close enough that this simplification holds up.
@Desperatelyseekinglazysusan mentions some reasons as to why it may not (and I'll address those below).
"If you were deemed not able to do O Levels at 14 you would have done CSE's."
This was true at a subject level (I did mostly O Levels and one CSE), not a person level. I think the figures from back then show that around two thirds of pupils got a mix of both O Level and CSE qualifications.
"...almost impossible to get into University."
The argument here isn't so much as to university entrance but how A Level grades compare between then and today.
"Boys also mature later than girls so there is a possible large cohort of boys who were funnelled into CSE:s "
But that still happens today. You mention about people being entered for O Levels or CSEs. This was done at a subject level. Teachers still make assessments of pupils at the end of KS3.
There used to be formal SAT exams at the end of year 9, nowadays there are informal assessments.
The teachers making decisions on O Level or CSE at subject level were no different to teachers nowadays making GCSE predictions at the end of KS3.
I haven't seen any research on this but I would guess that it is very likely that for those predicted a 3/4/5 GCSE at the end of KS3, very few if any at all went on to get an A star in that subject at A Level.
And the converse will likely be true. Those predicted a 7/8/9 GCSE at the end of KS3 were much more likely to get an A star at A Level.
There won't be an exact correspondence of course, but I would suggest that there is likely going to be a strong correlation between predicted GCSE grades at the end of KS3 and eventual A Level grades.
If teachers are able to do this today, why would they have not been able to also do it back then?
Of course, these predictions are and never were perfect. But, for most pupils, they were likely reasonably accurate (although I have never seen any research on this topic, so stand to be corrected).
Also, don't forget that, typically, those with five passes at O Level or CSE Grade 1 were encouraged to study A Levels. So, even those with some CSE Grade 1s could study for A Levels as well.
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So, all of the above is to argue that while there is not an exact correspondence between the 15% taking A Levels and the top 15% by academic ability there is enough of a correlation to say that a pupil who was at the bottom of the A Level grades back then would likely have been in or around the 85th percentile.
That 85th percentile would put that person on an A grade at A Level today.
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"Especially girls who were funnelled into secretarial work at 16."
I'm not entirely sure how true that was.
If you think back to then, when I took my O Levels (and one CSE), unemployment was over 10% and youth unemployment was upwards of 30% - almost one in three young people were unemployed.
Those figures are double what they are today.
Going now into anecdote rather than data, I was part of the first comprehensive intake into an ex-secondary modern. Back then, people were very aware of how high unemployment was (and how bad things like YOP and afterwards YTS were).
I recollect that most people who did well stayed on at sixth form - although this was only around 15%. The sixth form was split equally between boys and girls.
Certainly, just as my own anecdote, girls being pushed not to do A Levels doesn't seem to have been the case.