Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

My flu jab has been cancelled due to non delivery of the vaccine. Could this be anything to do with lorry driver problems or purely a coincidence (and high demand)?

dontcall
I suspect that as UK lorry drivers will be unable to do the EU run, deliveries around the UK of stuff already in the UK should not be a problem

its the getting it into and out of the UK that is the problem

I gather that Octavian Corsham is as full as it gets and its utterly utterly massive

Thank you have been buying a little extra so will continue, it got a bit scary in March when dgd was a newborn & very hard to come by.

@dontcallmelen

Probably a daft question, but do you think baby formula & nappies will be a bit scarce if no deal?

Possibly if there is panic buying, or they are imported from elsewhere. Pampers are made in the UK, but Sainsbury's and Boots are from the EU.

Formula-wise, Aptamil and Cow & Gate are from Ireland, Hipp is from Germany. I'd make sure you have some in, just in case as they disappeared in March for a little while.

@DGRossetti Going back to your ponderings earlier about "ex-Remain voters" there's a particularly fervent angry passionate prolific empty-slogan-spritzing Bingo-ticking born-again Leaver on that thread. She voted Remain? Chinny reckon

Really interesting thread - Brexit in a nutshell and where we are at, from a European perspective

twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1337438815036841985?s=21

We really need to remove Brexit from talking about Brexit. Because what Johnson is up to has nothing to do with it whatsover.

As it started, and as it continues, it's all about the Tory party. So maybe stop looking at Brussels and Boris and start looking into Westminster and Tory party headquarters. What's going on there ? How is this pantomime related to their overweening desire for permapower ?

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

WTF is BJ on? What makes him think we can do what we want from January? That the solution will be wonderful? And better (BETTER?) than he set out to achieve, when he's agreed nothing with anybody? Is it just me, or has he taken leave of his senses?

I still maintain he doesn't want a deal, any deal.

Because he has always done what the hell he wants and never suffered the consequences...

@Whenwillow - I am asthmatic abs have the flu vac along with DH - we haven't been able to get it this year.

Having said that it may depend on your NHS trust as DSis and her DH have received it

DGR
How is this pantomime related to their overweening desire for permapower ?
Nah
you've fallen for the classic mistake of assuming that they have a plan
rather than just reacting to events

Incidentally, anyone on FB had a message warning them that the picture of the Turkish immigrant that developed the vaccine is a hoax ?

So where the fuck have they been 2015-now ?

Fucking fuckers. I know it's wishful thinking, but I hope the Feds nail the fucking fuckers.

Nope, nothing on my FB - and you and I follow many of the same pages

One of DH's best mates works in food manufacturing supplying a certain type of common ingredient for processed food.

He said the supply chain is already fucked. No one can get stuff delivered and they are having problems now with JIT production.

He had a customer ring today desparately chasing an ingredient so they could keep the production line going. Fortunately he was able to help, but he does think the problem is going to get worse before it gets better because nothing is moving properly as it should.

Things are grinding to a halt.

Which backs up what others on here have been saying already.

Btw this type of ingredient isn't niche nor fresh. Its one of those you get in huge numbers of products.

Long-time lurker, making a quick appearance to share an interesting thread about fishing.

TL;DR: EU boats have been fishing a lot of soles and mackerel, but have not been exploiting British waters to the extent reported in some media

twitter.com/john_lichfield/status/1337405564108894210

GlassofPort
Bloody facts undermining headlines
but that is indeed REALLY interesting about the different sectors
and the impact of Norway

Well this is a theory...

Matt Chorley @MattChorley
Call me cynical but...

Last week when a deal looked unlikely the PM was very careful not to rock the boat, wouldn’t repeat the Brexit/vaccine nonsense, was unusually tight lipped.

Now a deal is imminent we get the “ooh it’s very very likely no deal” performance.

Iain Martin @iainmartin1
genuine question - do you think they know?

Matt Chorley @MattChorley
Total hunch but: I think he knows what he will budge too, thinks that will be enough, b needs to convince doubters he drove a hard bargain

Stephen Wall @StephenWall1985
Imminent? Wish I had your sources, last time I checked looked extremely unlikely

Matt Chorley @MattChorley
It only looks “extremely unlikely” because that’s what Johnson has spent the past 24 hours telling you. If he really thought there would be no deal, you’d hope he’d do more to prepare than smirking in hi-vis

OT
but Dead Ringers just now - Where is Ambridge
Linda Snell
"its in Altringham because we all sound like a Mumsnet forum discussing secondary schools"
FAB

Well if there is a deal, it begs the question, What does Starmer do? Back it, it goes tits up anyway, and Labour is tainted as the Lib Dems were in Coalition.

I think myself - either abstain or give his MPs a free vote. Either way, there will be enough Tory apparatchiks to get it through, even with a nice little rebellion from the Deadwood faction.

@ListeningQuietly

Nope, nothing on my FB - and you and I follow many of the same pages

It depends if you shared it (I did).

But home come Facebook can do a lot of research (they outlined the history of that picture) into that, and yet the thousands of lies spewed by right wing nutjobs remains unchecked ?

It's almost as if recent news has put a rocket up their arse.

@ListeningQuietly

DGR
Interesting
I just got one of those notices about the "USA deaths per day" picture

• which in fact I caveated while sharing

BUT Zuckerberg is clearly shitting himself

One of my news sources was saying that a forced sale of Instagram and Whatsapp is on the cards within 6 months if he does not get his arse in gear

(and the Georgia elections on the 6th will be the crucible)

[quote mrslaughan]Really interesting thread - Brexit in a nutshell and where we are at, from a European perspective

twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1337438815036841985?s=21[/quote]
This is fascinating. The upshot is that BJ is a crook either way.

I’ve screen-shoted it for people.

Tbh honest Red - I they are right..... but the EU is saying it's very unlikely.....

And as for the theory that he looks too chipper - he's a count , he's never given a flying fuck who he hurt and I am referencing people he professed to at some stage love (kids, wives , mistresses, family) . He's never had to face consequences for his appalling behaviour - so I don't see why that would change now.

He’s a very weak man, always playing to the gallery. And choosing a very strange gallery to play to.

From FT (found on Twitter)