Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

Thank you Red & all contributors

The timing is so obvious it hurts (repeating yesterdays point).

There have been a lot of days since the IMB was mooted, then drafted then voted on and the UK having a chance to withdraw it. A lot of days. But the day on which the UK does withdraw just happens to be the day that any hope of a Trump second term are extinguished. No doubt a lot of the headbanger ERGers were stretching things out by saying "it could still happen" and we know that Johnson will hedge bets wherever he can.

That's my take on it.

Now whoever the PM is after January, they'll have to face a US administration that is intimately descended from the 2016 administration that publicly advised the UK Brexit was a Bad Idea. Which means we can only speculate on what was said in private between Barack Obama and David Cameron. Although we do know from his recent tome of memoirs that Obama was underwhelmed by the Camerons political abilities. And that's before we remember that Biden is also underwhelmed by Boris personally. No fireside chats there.

I can't shake that comment that the consensus in the US was that Brexit hurts them. Which is going to make being pally a bit frosty. And indeed, googling "bexit harm us interests" returns far more reportage than I remember at the time. (Which suggests more people are asking the question than in 2016 ....)

Things tends towards equilibrium. That's science. Anyone else going to join me in suggesting that as the good news from the vaccine is an "up" we are going to need some correspondingly "down" news to balance it ? No deal pretty much does that job.

How could he get a deal in Feb/March? He said he didn't want to negotiate further.

At some point the UK will have to deal with the EU. It really is when, not if. No country in the world - certainly not with an economy as big as the UKs used to be - just sits on WTO terms.

🙈
Checking in for the nail biting. I've not been on here in ages and have had a name change. Or beloved borrowed cat went missing in the summer and his niece is borrowing us now I'm nervous about the welfare of the Christmas tree when it goes up as my dining room curtains have not fared well from her claws.

@DGRossetti

How could he get a deal in Feb/March? He said he didn't want to negotiate further.

At some point the UK will have to deal with the EU. It really is when, not if. No country in the world - certainly not with an economy as big as the UKs used to be - just sits on WTO terms.

And it will be a UK begging on its knees for whatever it can get kind of a deal.

I don't believe that the Brexiters have changed their minds en masse but that they have gone into hiding.

They need to be followed into their ferret holes, dragged out, and made to confront this shitshow.

Too harsh ?

Too soon ?

Anyone heard of mandatory arbitration

www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-12-08/tesla-called-her-a-criminal-now-shes-representing-herself-at-the-ninth-circuit-court-of-appeals

What's the betting that's snuck into the agenda 'twixt now and 2024 ?

How could he get a deal in Feb/March? He said he didn't want to negotiate further.

Bozo says a lot of things, most of it's crap, like his telling firms in NI to chuck any forms for exporting to the rest of UK in the bin, that turns out to be complete bollox, as he's now agreed that they will have to complete paperwork when shipping to the rest of the UK.

Pritti Patel has drawn up plans to criminalise protest which 'threaten democracy'. Fascism here we come ...

www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nick-ferrari/home-secretary-bring-new-law-protest-threaten-democracy/?fbclid=IwAR1BBkOIW0GnJj7KHEpHMuCrYL_S54Z3RZrjE_bMHuStBHPMa_eh-EekuzQ

Pmk

Also just seen the news that 2 NHS workers who received the vaccine yesterday had adverse reactions so the MHRA is reviewing the data and advising people with allergies not to get the vaccine.

And so it begins in earnest. I have just received an email from Amazon as well as a few emails from other companies where orders have been shipped from the UK. It includes the following:

"... These changes could include: VAT (or the regional equivalent, if applicable being due in the country of delivery, or your package may be subject to customs duties, taxes and fees"

Even now, when anything I order is unlikely to arrive before January 1st, they don't know what the additional charges will be.

I'm really annoyed at myself; I wanted to order blinds (from an Irish website, but I know they are shipped from the UK). I postponed it until after Christmas. I certainly can no longer order anything from any UK business, not knowing what it will cost.

In addition, Amazon will no longer accept returns from Ireland unless I pay all postage and possible fees, charges and taxes, in both directions

A sign of things to come, I presume. I'm small fry (and no longer order from Amazon anyway), but this multiplied by every person and company across the entire EU will have an extraordinary impact on UK exports, surely?

Yeah, if you really wanted to make the public aware of something happening, then around Xmas was probably the pitch-perfect time to do it.

I reckon by the end of the week, a lot of people will have had emails warning them of "upcoming changes". Which at least will start to smoke the debate to the water coolers of the nation.

Imagine the fury of just a fraction of a % of Amazon (other online tat shops are available) customers whose Xmas orders start being affected ?

thanks as ever red

Will the cause of rejoining or 'realigning' to enjoy more of the benefits of the club be better served by no deal or a thin deal?
Thinking longer term, will the docile voters who are bored of Brexit wake up in March and start to call the brexiteers to account?
Johnson is boxed in because he jettisoned all of his half way reasonable MPs which means he has to dance to the tune of the remaining headbangers.
But there is the ballot box. Starmer is keeping his distance from the Tory shit show but he won't stay quiet for long when its consequences are apparent. The May local elections could prove to be a massive protest vote against the Tories and a landslide for Labour.
I'm trying to think beyond the immediate shit which we know is going to be shit to see what will better serve our cause and get us back in the family of nations that aren't considered basket cases.
The USA have overcome the Trump and are in for an Obama style period of stability.
How does the UK get out of the grip of populism? Can anyone see the exit route because it isn't clear to me and yet the coming weeks or even hours are key to it.

I can't see how it could have been done any other way if the vaccine is to be rolled out quickly - but it was on the cards that some of the first subjects would have untoward reactions. I think I suggested on a previous thread that the lack of outrage would have been factored in, given the demographic could be considered "expendable". No one cared much about old people, care workers or NHS staff in March/April.

@QueenOfThorns

Thanks RTB. I’m not sure about Greater Manchester getting out of Tier 3 so soon. According to the MEN, the rate of reduction in infections has slowed massively (and the rate has started to increase slightly in Bury), so the next couple of days will be crucial in seeing what’s actually going on

Trafford is now under 100 per 100,000.

Its lower that some parts of Merseyside and Cheshire which are T2.
Its currently 93.1. Liverpool is 90.0.

Johnson has already mumbled about more 'granular' restrictions. This is a reference to no longer having restrictions over a wide area but on a much more localised area (even if this is fucking ridiculous and unworkable/ineffective in practice).

Johnson therefore will split up Greater Manchester into at least 'zones' if not by council despite it being overseen locally by Andy Burnham under Greater Manchester. The North of the City may stay in restrictions, but parts of the city will almost definitely removed from T3.

Why? Because the extremely low rates in parts of the city (Trafford) is problematic for Johnson. Graham Brady has ammunition to undermine the entire Tier Concept - its his patch. If Johnson needs to extend restricts in any way in the New Year, he needs to keep Brady onside. Cos its not just about Brady.

Manchester as a whole had a lower rate per 100,000 than T2 London did on the day restrictions were eased. Now hospital bed capacity is being used as a measure for lifting of restriction, as is the age of those affected, but the R rate in Manchester was also significantly lower than London (and the hospitals in the areas which were T3 but reduced to T2 were still very full of covid patients).

This is a problem due to the sheer number of Northern former RedWall Tory constituencies and the Tory MPs elsewhere who are unhappy with their Tier Allocation (There are lots of very unhappy Tory MPs in Dorset too for example)

Johnson needs to look like he is a) in control b) not being unfair - particularly to the north c) listening to his backbenchers (even if he isn't). Even if its purely symbolic. Its entirely political. And not about 'following the science'.

So if Trafford isn't out of T3 on the 16th December review I will be well and truly amazed. Possibly along with Stockport ( cough Hazel Grove and Cheadle are somewhat marginal and liberal leaning seats cough) and Tameside. I suspect Bury to be T3 still btw rather than the whole of G Manchester going to T2.

Btw, in terms of Kent and Brexit, its not lost on me that its almost handy its definitely going to be T3 into January. Can you imagine if traffic levels were completely normal?

@Peregrina

How could he get a deal in Feb/March? He said he didn't want to negotiate further. However, he has said that this is the last, he is going to walk away I don't know how many times. David Allen Green's post is good.

The UK will eventually need to make a deal as it's not practical to deal on WTO terms with a block that accounts for approx 50% of your imports and exports. That's ignoring traffic through rotterdam to/from outside the EU.

I think Feb/March is a bit soon for them to come cap in hand. I'd say 6-9 months, at which time the reality of no deal will have sunk in.

I think Feb/March is a bit soon for them to come cap in hand. I'd say 6-9 months, at which time the reality of no deal will have sunk in.

Yes, you'll need a lot of different experiences of travelling abroad to filter through.

@WorriedMutha - Will the cause of rejoining or 'realigning' to enjoy more of the benefits of the club be better served by no deal or a thin deal?

I think it will be better for everyone with a no deal. There will be a better deal for the EU, definitely, when the UK come back looking for one. I think if the UK suffer badly with no deal, there may be an appetite (provided ye get rid of the tories) for getting back into the SM and CU. I may be ridiculously optimistic on that and your electoral system stands in the way as getting rid of the tories is the difficulty.

Yes, getting rid of the Tories is the problem - even if they get slaughtered in next year's local elections, they still have a way of bouncing back for a GE.

For something better than the shitshow in question, we will need

1. Outrage from the country. This will happen when people realise that the shortages are ongoing, businesses are struggling (or going under) and they have extra barriers to their summer holiday or European home. Let's say, March.

2. A new leader. Johnson will be the sacrificial lamb for the above. My bet is on Gov, who is taking a long, hard look at Scottish Independence and a pissed-off White House. That's like to happen after the local elections.

So, the summer holidays will be filled with EU negotiations. Again. Yay.

On the plus side, this may finally break the Tory's reputation for economic competence.

@Peregrina

Yes, getting rid of the Tories is the problem - even if they get slaughtered in next year's local elections, they still have a way of bouncing back for a GE.

Also they are held in the grip of the FTPA - which they just can't overturn despite their majority. And I don't think a post US presidential GE in 2024 is what they want. Especially if late 2023 early 2024 sees a US-EU trade deal suddenly signed.

On the face of it I would agree that no deal should wake the country from its stupor. However, it is a wet dream for the ERG and Farage and I worry that Johnson will be hailed as a hero. The right wing press could just rewrite the narrative.
The alternative of the thin deal keeps us tied/aligned a little and thus is a springboard for rejoining by stealth. There will be zero benefits for the UK and it doesn't give us the 'freedoms' craved by the headbangers to do their worst. Johnson will be hated by all factions.

2) A new leader. Johnson will be the sacrificial lamb for the above. My bet is on Gov, who is taking a long, hard look at Scottish Independence and a pissed-off White House. That's like to happen after the local elections.

How much of the "old guard" is going to be acceptable. There will be about 10 years worth of ambitious Tories chomping at the bit and possibly less willing to give Gove his 3rd ? shot ???