Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

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Cats drinking alongside this year's "sacrificial elf" - the Christmas soft toy that we allow them to attack in the vain hope that they won't go after the collection that is on the stairs.

End game is painful. So much Brexit Bingo going on

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PMK with yet more thanks to RTB and all the others...

I have a question , if the clauses that were in the IMB are to be removed, does that need to be voted on in Parliament ? Will the hard brexit folk support the removal ? Didn't the HoL vote to remove them and then the HoC voted to have them reinstated ? or am I thinking of another bill ?

Can the Government promise something that might not get enough votes ? With such a large majority

Oops sorry , with such a large majority in the HoC, will the government have to rely on the opposition to get it through ?

I still think a deal is marginally more likely than no deal, although this is tea-leaf gazing at this point.

Why do I think that?

• the big backdown on the NI protocol/IMB
• the fact that ports are already in a serious amount of trouble before Brexit impacts even begin in earnest

This government does not have the state resources to handle serious public unrest (without sending the army in - but then we really are in the end game for this government).

Placemarking, thanks as ever Red, still thinking that the idea of sending the PM to Brussels to talk to Ursula von der Leyen will do anything other than piss her off.
Interesting that the shit is hitting the fan at the ports well in advance of the end of transition.

Oh and Sterling. No amount of government money can prevent a currency collapse. We tried that once.

Nor can government stimulus help resolve a supply side crisis. People can't spend if they are unable to buy. Shortages of construction materials are a real problem.

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The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

So the future of the entire country hangs on which option gives Johnson the biggest ego stroke. FFS!

Totally agree. All for show.

...will the government have to rely on the opposition to get it through ?

This is the dilemma Labour and the whole Opposition have (well except Sinn Fein!). If they vote for a deal, which can only be a bare bones one now, then when it goes tits up, the Tories will be very very quick to say 'Well you voted for it.'* The best course IMO would be for them to say why they consider it a poor deal and then abstain. Like the Covid restrictions, it will still be enough to get through even with Tory rebels/abstentions.

• Here Labour need to remind themselves how the Tories shafted the LibDems when they (mistakenly) went into Coalition with them. Leopards do not change their spots.

The shit has been hitting the fan at Felixstowe since at least the beginning of September. Partly due to Covid, it has to be said.

Will the outcome be known tonight?

PMK

(from previous thread)

Do you get the feeling that our gov't has a collective inability to multitask? Seemingly they can only focus on screwing one thing up at a time... and just ignore the rest.

Actually, there is some benefit to an incompetent government. The chances of them successfully managing a seriously repressive regime are very low. Everyone says they want competent efficient government, but that can make it too easy for the fascists.

An unfortunate choice of wording there DGR - screwing. Now from what we have seen of Johnson, that is the one thing he does well.

davidallengreen.com/2020/12/the-fork-in-the-road-to-brexit-boris-johnson-has-to-choose-between-being-irresponsible-or-being-unprincipled/

Thanks RTB. I’m not sure about Greater Manchester getting out of Tier 3 so soon. According to the MEN, the rate of reduction in infections has slowed massively (and the rate has started to increase slightly in Bury), so the next couple of days will be crucial in seeing what’s actually going on

Place marking with all the cat is prepared to offer today.

I have a question , if the clauses that were in the IMB are to be removed, does that need to be voted on in Parliament ?

(The fact the question needs to be asked highlights how shit our education system is).

From what little I know, the bill is still at the "cobbling together" stage. So although parliament has voted on those clauses, they don't have to appear in the bill that goes to the Lords.

Which of course means we only have the governments word for it that that won't pop up like some zombie undead clause before the bill goes to the Lords.

Regarding the theatre of Boris - a one man touring avant garde world meat beating extravaganza - right now, a no deal followed by a deal in Feb/March would seem to suit him a lot better than a boring old last minute deal now. Although it would distract from him saving Christmas which might be the best way to exit stage left.

I quite like the idea that Macron and Merkel were washing their hair when he wanted them on the call.

"I quite like the idea that Macron and Merkel were washing their hair when he wanted them on the call."

How could he get a deal in Feb/March? He said he didn't want to negotiate further. However, he has said that this is the last, he is going to walk away I don't know how many times. David Allen Green's post is good.