Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

Sorry - here's the content.....

FWIW - I am not sure anyone on here will be that surprised....

@Whenwillow my flu jab also got cancelled 2 weeks ago as they ran out. But I got it tonight (severe asthma)

So far, nothing is surprising me. Johnson's lack of skill in negotiating and downright lies / propaganda should not come as owt new. But I refuse to 'accept' this shit show. It's not in my name, and I don't believe it really was the "will of the people" (who was it who rightly pointed out that no other country is now clamouring to leave the EU now they have seen the utter mess the UK have made of trying to leave) Yeah, BJ got rid of Dom, but he still thinks the same old rhetoric will work. This time last year he sold a lie of an oven ready deal. And got elected on it! Fucks sake. We all know there was never, and was never going to be any deal.

Also refuse to apologise for prepping. I'm a single parent on a low income. But that's precisely why I've been buying a little extra each week.

Followed the thread for years. Thanks to you all. Also missing BCF.

I think it could go either way (no shit sherlock!) Johnson is acting like at total buffoon (as usual) arsing about in high vis jackets and making statements in front of fireplaces because a) he doesn't give a shit or b) he has a deal and is waiting for a ta daaaaaaaa moment on Sunday.

However the Europeans are less likely to engage in these ridiculous shenanigans. If VDL says its unlikely, I believe her. She doesn't look one for pretending we don't have a deal when we do, in the manner of going back saying they got no stars when actually they got 12 in I'm a celebrity. Whereas that's just the sort of 'jolly jape' thing that Johnson would do. 🙄

Sorry - another one for you - then I promise I will lay off Twitter....

@TokyoSushi

I think it could go either way (no shit sherlock!) Johnson is acting like at total buffoon (as usual) arsing about in high vis jackets and making statements in front of fireplaces because a) he doesn't give a shit or b) he has a deal and is waiting for a ta daaaaaaaa moment on Sunday.

However the Europeans are less likely to engage in these ridiculous shenanigans. If VDL says its unlikely, I believe her. She doesn't look one for pretending we don't have a deal when we do, in the manner of going back saying they got no stars when actually they got 12 in I'm a celebrity. Whereas that's just the sort of 'jolly jape' thing that Johnson would do. 🙄

How could the EU possibly not know he has a deal though.

He can’t sign one with himself.

I think the people expecting a big Tommy Cooper rabbit out of a hat are just in denial that he actually is this much of an imbecile.

That Alex Andreou thread is very interesting. Combined with the Matt Chorley commentary and other observations I have made, I am coming down in the deal camp. If we ignore what Johnson says (and there is scant evidence that it ever crosses paths with the truth), look at what we know:-

1 - he completely capitulated his former position in relation to the WA and agreed to a deal that May had thought unacceptable (cheered on by the ERG and Brexit press like the parade of the Emperor's new clothes).
2 - he ignored the inconvenient details of that WA which were picked up by the grown ups in the room because 'Boris doesn't do detail ok'. Such trifling matters can be got around by breaking international law.
3 - Out went Cummings and Lee Cain. In came Allegra Stratton and Dan Rosenfeld. Murmurings that Johnson was being more swayed by the Carrie camp.
4 - It is blindingly obvious that we are not prepared for no deal. Business is crying out for guidance and we haven't even had a dry run of our border computer systems. Compare that to the March Covid lockdown when the penny dropped with Johnson that the NHS would get trounced. When really faced with disaster, he acts to save his own skin. Would he really totally fuck the economy?
5 - he is going to so much trouble to scream no deal that I'm automatically inclined to believe the opposite.
Johnson knows now what he is going to do and I think we are being played.
I wonder who's shorting the pound. It fell to 1.09 against the Euro today and 1.32 against the dollar. There will be a fuck of a bounce if a deal is announced in the coming days. Plenty of money to be made if you're in the know.

mobile.twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1337420452407308289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1337420452407308289%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fd-14621143091681353335.ampproject.net%2F2011252111002%2Fframe.html

So no surprise then that places like Scunthorpe will suffer most under Brexit. I do find it difficult to sympathise with them - last December they knew exactly what Johnson was like and put their trust in him.

My friend working in Brussels on Brexit has been told to be ready to go into a crisis team and has to be on call on Christmas Day.

The lengths that these idiots are prepared to sabre rattling is getting scary.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/11/four-navy-ships-to-help-protect-uk-waters-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit

Further to my earlier post, I also think there could be option c) he really thought the EU would cave, they haven't, and now he knows we're in the shit, and doesn't know what the fuck to do, so is just trying to make it all sound like it's going to be jolly good fun.

There's also d) he completely capitulates, gives in to all demands just to get any deal.

I'll come back if there's more! (Bet you're on the edge of your seats)

Also fascinated by the Matt Chorley/Alex Andreou twitter thread.

[quote DrBlackbird]The lengths that these idiots are prepared to sabre rattling is getting scary.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/11/four-navy-ships-to-help-protect-uk-waters-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit[/quote]
Four ?

For how many thousand miles of coast ?

A fascinating and very detailed analysis ...

braveneweurope.com/peter-ramsay-brexit-and-the-reunification-of-ireland

[quote DrBlackbird]The lengths that these idiots are prepared to sabre rattling is getting scary.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/11/four-navy-ships-to-help-protect-uk-waters-in-case-of-no-deal-brexit[/quote]
Very scary Indeed. And goodbye to French wine and cheese if you take their boats..

Or he could just no deal cos hes a fucker.

I read elsewhere that the figure of EU trawlers taking 60% of the catch is wrong, because it lumps in the quota caught by Norway.

But if we start sending the navy to escort boats foreign boats out of our waters does anyone think that the French/Dutch/Norwegians won't do likewise to British boats?

I remember the Cod Wars - they did not end well for the UK fishing industry.

What are 4 navy boats actually going to DO? Fire on stray frenchmen? Remember they are already supposed to be setting torpedos on migrants in rubber dingies. (And aren't 'catching' many cos the words needle and haystack spring to mind)

Why is this scary? Because for all the hype from the politicians, the army and navy aren't fuckwits and don't carry out orders from superiors if they are bollocks and likely to cause massive diplomatic crap.

At best, they'll go over and have a polite chat.

There is that @RedToothBrush

I see I'm taking the same role on this thread at the moment as I did on the Trump threads during the election. You all give your sensible, detailed and reasoned explanations. While I (while admittedly also coming from a position of greater than the average person knowledge) ask questions like 'but what time do you think it will be on Sunday?' 'Do you think Johnson is bluffing or is he really just a thick idiot?' 'Do you all agree that Ursula is not to be messed with?' and the like...

All about the balance!

BJ's address to the country yesterday, trying to make the point to the EU that he was serious about No Deal which failed in its hoped for effect as they ignored it was obscene horrific. He seemed to positively revelling in his warning that No Deal might happen, with his jovial grins, and worse, seemed to be getting off (

BJ did an address to the nation yesterday?

God I'm clearly not paying attention and his prattlings are losing any level of public importance then...

Not really, he just stood prattling on by a fire place saying an 'Australian Style Deal' was now 'very very likely' 🙄

He never does actually say anything worthwhile or meaningful does he?

Nope.

@RedToothBrush

What are 4 navy boats actually going to DO? Fire on stray frenchmen? Remember they are already supposed to be setting torpedos on migrants in rubber dingies. (And aren't 'catching' many cos the words needle and haystack spring to mind)

Why is this scary? Because for all the hype from the politicians, the army and navy aren't fuckwits and don't carry out orders from superiors if they are bollocks and likely to cause massive diplomatic crap.

At best, they'll go over and have a polite chat.

To me it is scary to see any military in Europe in peace times. And I never want to enter into any war again. Which is why I think the EU is a successful institution despite its many shortcomings. And I strongly belief that leaving is not the solution for the uk or any other country but we should try to solve the issues within the EU.

@TokyoSushi

Not really, he just stood prattling on by a fire place saying an 'Australian Style Deal' was now 'very very likely' 🙄

It was when he was smirking away. But it's got me thinking about what will they do if there is an agreement to no deal. Will he address the nation - which will be toxic and crank up the xenophobia as per the the various Tory MP tweets tonight? Because that would create outright panic buying. Mind you, if tonight's Gogglebox was anything to go by, there's a whole host of people who haven't got a clue what's going on and are very happy to blame "the French". I am so genuinely depressed by this.