Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

It's content has pretty much zero relevance at all to current discussion in the last day or two about flight bans etc...

What do you mean by 'flight bans'? Passenger bans or aircraft bans?

@Clavinova

It's content has pretty much zero relevance at all to current discussion in the last day or two about flight bans etc...

What do you mean by 'flight bans'? Passenger bans or aircraft bans?

Google is your friend

🐿 Although we all know about the dramatic Cretaceous mass extinction 65 million years ago that did for the dinosaurs, the worst event experienced by life on Earth was actually the Permian-Triassic mass extinction 252 million years ago. Around 75% of life on land, and 96% of marine life, was wiped out. The main cause is thought to be a mass volcanic eruption of the Siberian Traps, triggering runaway global warming, acid rain and oxygen loss in the oceans.

Permian creatures such as Dimetrodon, Lystrosaurus and Jeremy Corbyn are to be constantly brought up and blamed for ToryBrexitannianNationalPlague not being a glowing flawless success. 🐿

Brexit stockpile : chutney made with excess summer veg now ready to eat

Nice work, ListeningQuietly
I planted some more peas for pea shoots to act as lettuce over the winter but made the rookie error of not soaking them first.
Still, they are sitting happily in a plastic mushroom box set in an old mini brownie box on a window ledge. Not taking up any space either here or in the Farage Garage.

I'm jealous Listening. We didn't have enough this year to do that. Still a work in progress...

Deal unlikely by Sunday...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55271914
Brexit: PM and EU say trade deal unlikely by Sunday

I am reviewing my shelves and making sure I have at least two of everything. We may be eating some strange combo's, but at least the impact is softened.

My assumption is crash-out. I would rather be pleasantly surprised by Johnson's u-turn than disappointed he went for the most painful route.

When all of this is over and we have the WM meet up, I'll be palming jars of chutney and pickles onto the lot of you

Interesting analysis from A Different Bias today. Noting that the EU have offered us 6 months flying permissions in exchange for 12 months fishing rights.

Quite a courageous move on their part to force the UK to actually quantify something they want.

In the same way people can "foresee" the EU disintegrating before February, I can imagine a future made up of a series of micro deals, with each one predicated on the last just in case the UK forgets who they are.

I know it's probably the last thing the EU would have wanted to do. But sometimes you need to treat children as children. And the UK is effectively the child of all the countries in the EU. As a passing DNA analysis would reveal. Starting with the folk that walked across Doggerland c. 6,000 BC

Just as a chapeau to our Caledonian Cousins (of who I know there are a few here) over naming your gritters. And pleased it's trending on twitter.

#spreadymercury

(And reading the thread someone tweeted that Washington State does, to which someone else said "Hang on, I live in WA and this is the first I've heard of it).

I guess we all need a bit of diversion ?

twitter.com/jackiesojico/status/1337211778694930432

@ListeningQuietly

When all of this is over and we have the WM meet up, I'll be palming jars of chutney and pickles onto the lot of you

Are you completely sure you won't be into good old fashioned English bartering at that point???

I might have a bunch of spring onions and not a lot else to offer by that point. Unfortunately I don't think the Homebrew and our vast stockpile of supplies will last that long (I'm not shitting you, DH has got so many hops I'm worried he's going to get accused of dealing. Its the Great Malt Shortage of 2020 we are suffering with a little but there is always Soreen if all else fails).

Johnson is such a tit. How is No Deal going to be "wonderful for the UK"?

Was ever anyone more unfit for high office?

DH has got so many hops I'm worried he's going to get accused of dealing

Hops are related to cannabis. Different ploidy if I recall. Or is that nettles ? I know at one point nettles were considered part of the cannabis family, until DNA showed they weren't. Much as no matter how much you want foxes to be dogs, they're not, although you'd think they were from looking.

Probably a daft question, but do you think baby formula & nappies will be a bit scarce if no deal?

@dontcallmelen

Probably a daft question, but do you think baby formula & nappies will be a bit scarce if no deal?

Even if they are made in the UK (?) they still need to be moved to where they need to be. LQ might know better than I, but I have a vague memory that the UK doesn't have enough HGV drivers of it's own.

They were scarce in March without supply disruption, so I'd imagine they will be a casualty of panic buying if nothing else.

@DGRossetti

DH has got so many hops I'm worried he's going to get accused of dealing

Hops are related to cannabis. Different ploidy if I recall. Or is that nettles ? I know at one point nettles were considered part of the cannabis family, until DNA showed they weren't. Much as no matter how much you want foxes to be dogs, they're not, although you'd think they were from looking.

I know they are related. We've made sure the neighbours are aware we are brewers too...

I have some very amusing photos along these lines. (Pun intended).

@dontcallmelen

Probably a daft question, but do you think baby formula & nappies will be a bit scarce if no deal?

Honestly don't know.

It depends on what happens. If there is a lack of fresh fruit and veg it would well trigger panic buying even if there is no supply chain issue with baby formula and nappies.

I genuinely think all bets are off at this stage, and I have no idea what will happen.

Just in case any one is concerned about a no deal, it's apparently going to be wonderful:

“It’s looking very, very likely we’ll have to go for a solution that I think will be wonderful for the UK, we’ll be able to do exactly what we want from January 1st. It will obviously be different from what we set out to achieve,” said Mr Johnson.

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/no-deal-on-brexit-trade-very-very-likely-says-boris-johnson-1.4434154

Thank you for these threads, though I’m not reading them as much. I’m having same feelings I had in the days just after the vote and feeling cut off from some fellow Brits. I remember huddling in the quiet corner with a mug of tea, probably with some of you. This year has been so shit already. I have no escape route such as EU citizenship. I won’t have the direct impact as not likely to lose job through it. Just

I genuinely think all bets are off at this stage, and I have no idea what will happen.

Well, if it's all Sunlit Uplands, quaffable sovereignty and cowering awestruck foreign supplicants offering tribute, I'll be pleasantly surprised and happily admit I was wrong.

If it's not then at least I have our preps to slightly smooth out the bumps over the initial disruption. Whereas our mysteriously angry BeLeaving friends jizzing all over the woodwork on the blackmail thread, they're going to be angry and shocked and not have any supplies prepared (unless you count glittery unicorn food in the unicorn stable).

[quote OchonAgusOchonO]Just in case any one is concerned about a no deal, it's apparently going to be wonderful:

“It’s looking very, very likely we’ll have to go for a solution that I think will be wonderful for the UK, we’ll be able to do exactly what we want from January 1st. It will obviously be different from what we set out to achieve,” said Mr Johnson.

www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/no-deal-on-brexit-trade-very-very-likely-says-boris-johnson-1.4434154[/quote]
He sounds more like the Trumper every day.🤦🏻‍♀️

At least he didn't say "World-beating" this time...

Elements are they spaffing dust over there yet?

@pussycatinboots

Elements are they spaffing dust over there yet?

They're spaffing something I don't know if it's possible to orgasm by typing about how much you hate immigrants and fantasising about deporting your fellow citizens for the crime of being unpatriotic, but if it is, there are definitely some come faces behind some of those computer screens

WTF is BJ on?
What makes him think we can do what we want from January?
That the solution will be wonderful?
And better (BETTER?) than he set out to achieve, when he's agreed nothing with anybody?
Is it just me, or has he taken leave of his senses?

I still maintain he doesn't want a deal, any deal.