Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

They expelled 3 Labour members in SW Surrey in 2017.
There was an NHS Progressive party candidate standing against Jeremy Hunt, who was then Health Secretary.

At first, all the main parties were going to endorse her, but then Labour and the LibDems backed out. It was a total mess. Labour, incidentally, have more chance of getting their candidate into the Vatican than they do into a SW Surrey seat.

It’s why Hunt’s majority is so big; and in the 2015 election, the LibDem then was actually suspended. So Hunt has got his seat in both elections with little serious opposition.

However, the LibDems are much stronger and there’s no NHS protest to distract the voters. The constituency Conservative party have already had a fright over the local elections.

Jeremy Hunt is most definitely playing to the gallery at the moment: the Remainer gallery at home that could lose him a lot of votes in the next GE unless he’s very careful.

You'd think Raab would have left geography alone in his promotional video- after his speech about not realising the importance of the channel ports.

At least his enthusiasm for trade with Mexico is for a country actually on the world economy chart. Don't think his other top choice (Vietnam) features.

With Labour losing so many votes, of course what they need to do is expel party members 🤦🏻‍♀️

The main points in favour of FPTP will soon be tough to justify too:

1. it delivers "strong" governments of 1 party, without coalitions
   Even if you think that is strong - government chosen by maybe 35% of those who chose to vote - the system is no longer reliably producing governments with working majorities

2. the link of constituency to an MP - but there are forms of PR which could also do this

I would say SW Surrey is remain central (stockbroker belt)

Presumably, if the new PM dropped all the red lines and went in with a clean sheet, the EU would start new negotiations?

Rutte says as much too.

We're racing through these threads at a pace of knots!

I'm going to have to take more pictures of the boys to keep up - although I didn't use one on the last thread as we were in full "election results" commentary . Here is one of the boys making it difficult for me to get a place marking photo (the cat inside the fortunately empty compost bin is nipping the other one because he took his place)

TalkinPeace sends her regards - she lurks but can't post any more because MNHQ deemed she'd broken too many talk guidelines She'll be in good company in the bad books with Alistair Campbell and all the other #expelmetoo renegades

She says she's given up trying to get summarised election updates from the normal press and has bookmarked the Brexit board and reading Westminsterenders as it's the best discussion there is 😊

She wants me to pass on her best wishes and says DGR's discussions on accents and answering the door to Vince Cable are crackers 😉

Pmk. My boy is in his bunker just waiting for the whole thing to be over.

WTAF re TiP?! Where on MN has she been breaching guidelines? I find it odd that somebody so measured on here would be posting elsewhere in a totally different way. Bonkers.

I'm heading back down into despondency right now; I seem to go up and down. The lack of any attempts to even try to sort this mess is pissing me off / worrying me in equal measure.

"Presumably, if the new PM dropped all the red lines and went in with a clean sheet, the EU would start new negotiations?"

imo, NO
Unlikely that the WA itself would change more than optically, because:

1. The WA is only the Exit Deal, so the 3 main planks - exit bill, expat rights, backstop in case the UK reneges - would remain. Dropping the red lines would hardly affect these - they could say agree to add on more rights for expats

It is the PD which the EU would be happy to change, but this cannot be made legally binding until the future trade deal has actually been signed - which would take years

Even the future trade deal may have a backstop clause in ccasae the UK reneges

2. The WA cannot be merged with the final trade deal, because:
   . the EU legally cannot negotiate trade deals with one of its own members
   . they would refuse to do so anyway, because the UK could hold up EU business henever it waanted concessions
   . the future trade deal could take several years to negotiate, which would mean a ridiculously long extension of A50

3. There is little enthusiasm in the EU to start from scratch and have another 2 years taken up with negotiating the Exit Deal
   The EU countries want to move on with reform / further integration
   One or more countries would probably veto a Return To Go request

In any case, imo it would take a GE and a change to Labour govt before the UK would chck out all its red lines

The govt will desperately avoid a GE - so will its batshit Brexiters

TIP banned????
Whaaaat?
😳😡

Can we do a 'hostage swap' by reinstating TalkinPeace for one of the serial 'vacuous' please?

waves to < TalkinPeace > we miss you !

We've EMed
imo she got into arguments with very awkward people who then stalked her and kept picking out every post that could be taken badly

MN moderators were played for fools

'twas a stitchup

Christ. There's some nasty people on here. Who clearly have too much time on their bloody hands. Honestly, I despair of most people.

waves to Talk - can't believe you've been banned

Thanks for the new thread Red

I'm just so tired of this catastrofuck. I want it all to go away.

pmk

prettybird regards back to TIP and say we'll miss her at the helm of all our vegetating plots

Pmk ,

Tip banned?? Oh...

I don't understand the internet..

waves to < TalkinPeace > we miss you
TalkinPeace

OMG the bbc are hosting Tory Leadership debates. Crikey

The sheer number of folk - me included - TIP has helped on mn over the years...

Baffling.

Waves at talkinpeace baffled as to how you got banned

OMG the bbc are hosting Tory Leadership debates. Crikey

Well they are the party broadcaster ....

Big smooch to TIP 💋

mobile.twitter.com/haggis_uk/status/1133370704743796737

Really good videos of new MEP Martin Daubney being grilled on the brexit party policy on the Irish border. I hope all their MEPs are going to start worrying about the lack of policy.

I cannot believe TiP has been banned. Can't we start a campaign to get her reinstated like Anyfucker was some time ago?

www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/brexit-sees-london-fall-behind-new-york-as-top-financial-hub/

New York has ousted London as the world’s main financial centre after Brexit “cast a shadow of uncertainty” over the UK capital, according to a survey of financial executives.

The poll of 180 executives in asset management, private equity, hedge funds, banking and brokerage was conducted by consultants Duff & Phelps.

It found only 36% currently see London as the foremost global financial hub, down by 17% from last year, while New York won 52% of votes, up by 10%.