Westministenders: The Only Election That Matters - The Tory One

[RedToothBrush]

Fallout from the Euro Elections makes for interesting reading for the leadership hopefuls.

Its not a clear cut as some make out. There is still a case for a deal. The trouble is passing it through parliament. And there is no time to do that. Nor no will.

Any new leader's priority isn't going to be a deal. Its going to be avoiding a General Election. And thats going to be hard.

We are also realistically facing the prospect of another extension which France is likely to block leading to no deal or no deal.

Or a 2nd Referendum.

A 2nd Referendum might be the only way to avoid a General Election. And that will still have no deal on the ballot. Of that you can be sure.

Peter Foster of the Telegraph remarked this morning that in fact the only way to a deal now, might well be via no deal, because of all the routes we have exhausted through incompetence. And that will come at a very high price.

Hunt - twerp. I hardly think that even if the EU was minded to re-open negotiations, that they would re-open them only for representatives of one party.

I can't see the EU trying to interfere in the UKs internal politics which such a stance might be interpreted as. Especially given Widdecombes view that BRX have a "moral" right to be in on any talks. Presumably this is from the same encyclopedia that Harriet Harman used to invoke the "court of public opinion" ?

Pmk

Deal via No Deal was how I characterised the BoJo / Raab strategy last week. Interesting if that is starting to gain traction and would also make an EU pivot more politically possible.

Also seems to be what Gove is starting to "sell".

PMK. Running just to keep up here!

Pmk. Red

Deal via No Deal was how I characterised the BoJo / Raab strategy last week.

Except the only "deal" (and it's just to cover withdrawal) is Theresa Mays deal.

I'm guessing there is some very nervy non-leakable war gaming going on in the various contenders camps about how to pretend to be a "dealer" while at the same time knowing it's just Mays deal. Something the "no dealers" don't have to worry about.

All interesting stuff (if it doesn't affect your life). Not helped by the rather unsporting refusal of "the Europeans" to swing behind the UK in the -exit stakes.

PMK

Owen Jones has AC on camera discussing the fact that you can't openly vote for another party as a Labour Party member without expecting to be expelled. Rule was extant and enforced under Tony Blair.

He also did a whole article on KH which I didn't read but from his presse comment seems to agree with my understanding.

.

So Kate Hoey can run around with Farage but as long as she keeps her mouth shut about how she voted she is OK?

Is Campbell expulsion is a 'dead cat' story?
Lynton Crosby (and Campbell himself during his glory days during the 3 lovely terms of the Blair government) would be proud of it.

Perhaps Hoey would like to be expelled then she can come the martyr and join the Brexit party with a clear conscience and be their first MP. Perhaps I shouldn't give her ideas.

@DG I had no idea the rest of the country had roundabouts not islands.Mind blown.

I just sort of assumed islands were big and roundabouts small.

Do remember the U.S. seeming to go to any lengths to try and avoid the use of an island/roundabout. They have some very complex road set ups where an island/roundabout would have saved the bother of a lot of traffic lights.

All the gaming possibilities start to make FPTP look entirely rational.

In a two-party system, it has it's place. But the UK (much like the US) has evolved waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay past the point where two parties can successfully capture the spread of views and needs of it's population. I suspect we can expect to see a lot more parties pop up, as people realise the only way to be heard legally is through a political mouthpiece. Probably not what Labour and Tory want to hear.

Despite the legend, there's some merit to the principle behind the Round Table ...

I'm sure I am not alone in recalling from years gone by how both Tory and Labour parties dismissed PR as "leading to chaos" and that FPTP was the only way to guarantee "strong government". I'm pretty certain they can't all have died, but they are keeping very quiet.

If we can't have PR, then maybe a primary style system ? Although generally, given voter apathy, maybe something which didn't add to the number of elections held.

Incidentally, I saw one quite good argument for compulsory voting today - and that was that it would stop **s claiming that they had the backing of the % that didn't vote.

@DG I had no idea the rest of the country had roundabouts not islands.Mind blown

It's to catch out spies from "that London".

So the Peterborough by election would I be possible for BXP and Tory candidate to split the vote and Labour get in that way. Or did most of the BXP vote originate from Labour voters ?

Or do we have no actual clue ?

Do remember the U.S. seeming to go to any lengths to try and avoid the use of an island/roundabout. They have some very complex road set ups where an island/roundabout would have saved the bother of a lot of traffic lights.

www.mikeontraffic.com/4-way-stop-vs-roundabout/

When I was in the US, there's a "circulatory system" somewhere near the Huey Long in Louisiana. It was signed about 10 miles in advance with an alternative route for unsure drivers.

I bet Keir Starmer is having a think on about his allegiances. He must quietly loathe Corbyn and the shambles surrounding his tenure.

Thanks red

@DG Can you pass the Walsall Caldmore test ??

I bet Keir Starmer is having a think on about his allegiances. He must quietly loathe Corbyn and the shambles surrounding his tenure.

I think because politics is so personal (like religion ...) the sunk costs fallacy is more entrenched.

There's probably a Ph.D for someone who wants to investigate the differences between the way politicians seem to get years to prove themselves and football managers one game.

PMK.

Thanks, Red.

Probably not what Labour and Tory want to hear.

Only when they realise they can no longer win majorities and will suddenly become enthusiasts for a proper form of PR.

I do look at some of the ‘centre ground’ MPs of both sides and often think they have more in common with each other than their own parties. As illustrated by Change/Tiggers I guess.

Woah, just caught up with the news about Alastair Campbell. Pretty shocking how swiftly they dealt with him whereas they won't expel some members where there's actual proof of antisemitism despite being asked to by local parties.