Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

[RedToothBrush]

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

I think Yougov are the ones that called the general election correctly (or at least most closely). I hope they've got this one wrong re: the turquoise arrows, though. I hope they actually poll far less than the lowest polls put them at ... we can but dream.

Nick Robinson to Tice: Do you take foreign donations? Tice: As I understand it, that's not illegal

So... that would would be a yes from Richard Tice, then.

I think there is an interesting debate to be had over the recent USA/China trade/software update news. I think this is the start of a lare split where USA suddenly realises that although they have had the power for a long time China is as ever a good mimic and will soon enough present a better version of what America has done. That and the confusion for slightly backwards countries such as UK who will presumably have to pay double to keep both sets of systems updated enough to prevent security breaches... Will this help us identify who we align ourselves with or is it merely USA trying to force us towards them over China for our security software?

Or am I reading too much into this?

Re the elections I am hoping that the huge publicity will do for the BP what it did for remain - less voters turn out because it's "in the bag"

Dodgy wording on the People's Vote campaign website;

"donations over £500 have to be verified as permissible, and those over £7,500 published by the Electoral Commission, as required by law."

"We have, therefore, set the donation limit to £499 because in a regulated period, any donation for campaign purposes below £500 is considered a small donation, which means that individual donors don’t have to be checked."
www.peoples-vote.uk/european_elections_battle_fund

Ballot Box Scotlandd@BallotBoxScot*

Finally, EU poll (again, this is confirmed full Scotland-only sample);

SNP - 38%
Lab - 16%
Brex - 16%
Con - 11%
LD -10%
Green - 4%
ChUK - 2%
UKIP - 2%

Seats;
SNP - 3
Lab - 1
Brex - 1
Con - 1

Not dodgy from PV
when they don't have the resources / ability to check donations of £500+ then they legally have to refuse them
i.e. specify £499 limit

@paulwaugh
Blimey. @Channel4News says it has been told by @TheBrexitPartly it has been banned from all future events hosted by the party. They have apparently been blacklisted because of an incident involving access to a Leave Means Leave rally 6 weeks ago.

Molly Scott Cato has referred Nigel Farage to the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) asking them to investigate possible fraudulent activity. The referral comes following accusations that monetary gifts totalling almost £450,000 from billionaire Arron Banks were made to Mr Farage in the year after the EU referendum

mollymep.org.uk/2019/05/20/farage-anti-fraud-office/

Good try

That was to Clavinova

Campaigning for a Peoples Vote is not actually defining who they want to actually 'win'. It is an attempt to find out if the majority in the UK NOW wish to continue the leave process or whether they have changed their mind. It is actually PRO democracy.

Tories face wipe-out by Nigel Farage's Brexit Party, shocking new poll reveals

Mirror probably optimistic here with their Comres poll

More likely is the split right wing vote letting in Labour - & Corbyn - at the GE

However, it is possible that BREX would kill off CON in a GE and even replace them permanently as the party of the right
CON are ripe for plucking:

• haven't had a substantial majority in a GE since 1987
• membership is ridiculously low for a major national party
• the average age of both members & voters is high and still climbing - death by demography

but BREX have a similar age problem.
The right will die off if it this trend is not reversed - Brexit is a last desperate diversion to avoid this, but may instead have accelerated the death of the Tories., deservedly.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-face-wipe-out-nigel-16165569

Nigel Farage is on course to ­virtually wipe out the Tories, ­according to a sensational new poll.

Nine out of 10 Brexitit_ Party voters choosing him on Thursday promise to also do so in a General Election – which could leave just two Conservative MPs in Parliament.^

Who can the poor BeLeavers watch these days? Sky and ITV?
I'm guessing Fox?

That scottish polls shows that if everyone there planning to vote Green and Chuk threw their lot in with the Lib Dems instead, they would be on an equal footing with Brex and labour - and would take the seat from the Cons - which would leave Scotland with 4 very pro remain MEP seats, one very hard leave seat and one wishy washy can't tell their arse from their elbow don't expect them to make up their mind seat. (why is anyone still voting labour? at least the tories know they stand for hardish brexit.)

It's also different to what remain voter is suggesting - as they seemed to think L.D already had a seat.

May start taking bets on what the BeLeavers totem clothing article will be; we have the MAGA hat...?

I think a Victorian style pocket watch with the far right arrow on it?

membership is ridiculously low for a major national party
Wasn't that spotted on this thread years ago, 45 000 in 2013, then they stopped publishing it. Tories were ripe for take over.

Unlike Labour which has a much more solid membership and cultural base.

However, it is possible that BREX would kill off CON in a GE and even replace them permanently as the party of the right

The problem for them here is that they don't actually stand for anything (other than brexit - and even that isn't about the EU anymore, according to Nige). Now that doesn't bother their devoted cult members, but it does mean that their politicians don't have a fucking clue what they're supposed to be doing - because no policy. And - as with UKIP turning out to be shit once elected locally, and losing support once people experienced how shit they were - their lack of direction and propensity to skive would see them off, long before their last elderly cult member died out.

But the age thing is a problem for them, as well.

"why is anyone still voting labour?"

They want Leave, but refuse to vote fascist

why is anyone still voting labour

In the face of such abject poverty, racism and injustice in britain, many are still voting labour on old fashioned moral grounds. Many have been successfully gas lit by the leadership.

A bit of music for this thread too, as there have been no cats recently.
Tory theme tune?

"The problem for them here is that they don't actually stand for anything (other than brexit)"

That doesn't seem a problem.
Now it's about feelz, not policies and the right wing voter feelz is for authoritarianism

Farage will probably get a set of dog-whistle policies written out for him in the USA
That's why he has no policies atm - his masters have to write them first

From the Comres poll, there are still unrealistic expections:

"More than six in 10 voters now feel he should be given a seat at Brexit talks with Brussels if he wins most British MEPs in the European ­Parliament election."
🙄
There aren't going to be any talks, before or after Brexit, until the UK signs up to the WA terms

It is going to be very difficult for Nige to have policy because his rag-tag mix of communists, vulture capitalists and simpletons only have one opinion in common.

Once they have to make policy that isn't about abstract concepts like "sovereignty" and "democracy" it'll all fall apart like a rotten kipper.

This from the Mark Alexander who's doing the Remain Voter thingy.

Fortunately we only need 500,000 odd smart votung folk to go from 18 seats to 28

Its 500,000 out of 10.5m expected remain voters. They mostly come from Labour and Con.

twitter.com/Sillyshib/status/1130542586882678784

Is this the case?

More than six in 10 voters now feel he should be given a seat
Why would you even ask that question, re 'seat at brexit talks'.

Do many countries have polling companies which ask idiots, idiotic questions, and take the answers seriously?

Clavinova, you have to give all your details on the People's Vote website - name, address etc - if you want to donate as much as a fiver. Click on an amount & see - you obviously don't have to actually make a donation. I thought the point about Brexit Party donations is that they're administered through Paypal so BP doesn't actually keep any record of donors' details & may have no idea who's funding them, or even which country they're from.

"rag-tag mix of communists, vulture capitalists and simpletons "

They would probably all support an authoritarian, nationalist manifesto
i.e. saying nothing about the normal bread & butter issues of politics, economic policy etc but just feelz

He could get elected on that, since most voters seem to just hear a few soundbites.
However, the govt would fail to deliver anything, so would need scapegoats to stay in power ....