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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
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26
Violetparis · 20/05/2019 17:58

I agree Red I was amused at the milkshake incidents with Tommy Robinson as he is a violent, yob and it seemed funny to see such a 'hardman' being felled by pink milkshake. I am in the North West so was also glad to see him get some kind of come uppance here. I think it needs to stop now as who knows where it will lead.

Does anyone know what the Electoral Commission can actually do if it finds evidence of dodgy funding at The Brexit Party ? Would it be just a fine ?

DarlingNikita · 20/05/2019 18:00

LoonvanBoon, I completely agree. And tobee, yes, that crossed my mind too.

As an aside, for my money it's 'to be milkshaked' Grin

essayessay · 20/05/2019 18:18

tobee: the assailant has been charged with assault so I doubt it was a set up.

It has to stop. Normalising this will lead to kids being targeted then humiliated on sm, which could end v v v badly.

People saying ‘its just a milkshake’ should think about the recent death of a small child who had a cheese slice thrown at him. Sad

PCPlumsTruncheon · 20/05/2019 18:19

Reading those first couple of threads is quite spooky. There are so many posts that predicted exactly what would happen.
And there several posters asking about the NI issue 3 years ago.
I am currently feeling physically sick at the thought of Johnson as PM

OublietteBravo · 20/05/2019 18:21

My DC aren’t old enough to vote yet. But I’m trying to make sure all my pro-remain family members vote. DBro has just found out that he has to travel for work, so I’m currently in the process of persuading him to try and sort out a proxy vote.

Whisky2014 · 20/05/2019 18:36

So the electoral comission say they will go in and "check the systems in place" for making the payments. If other parties use PayPal, surely the commission will say it's fair?

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 18:55

PayPal isn't the issue, it is the source of the money, which if it is over £500 has to be declared, and all money should come from within the UK.
It is not beyond the possibility that UK Paypal users have been offered money to pay £499 to the BP, or even the £25 amounts. That would be a form of money laundering though, it will be interesting to see what is found.

NoWordForFluffy · 20/05/2019 18:58

I've just donated (by debit card!) to the LibDems. They've got a supporter who's doubling donations, so I bunged them a fiver!

Whisky2014 · 20/05/2019 18:58

They won't find anything.

AutumnCrow · 20/05/2019 19:11

Channel Four now. Snow talking to Catherine Bearder (Lib Dem MEP) about dodgy old Farage allegations.

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 19:22

Dodgy old Farage or dodgy allegations?

woman19 · 20/05/2019 19:35

Heseltine has had the whip suspended.
Soames just called it a 'bovine' decision on Channel 4 news.

tobee, I don't think you're cynical; they're using exactly the same tactics as the purples and others. Footage for clicks. Victimhood narrative. They're the cynical ones, and it's working on all levels. Sad

Peregrina · 20/05/2019 19:38

The oldies among us will remember what a maverick Heseltine was but at the same time, he's got the word Tory running through him like a stick of rock. If they can suspend the whip from him then they are more batshit crazy than we thought.

But have a look at how people stomach Farage and Co without a qualm on another thread.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/05/2019 19:44

For Remainers, most effective choices seem:

Scotland: SNP or GRN or LDEM
Wales: GRN or Plaid
NI: Alliance
London & SE: GRN or LDEM
rest England: LDEM

bellinisurge · 20/05/2019 19:44

Heseltine has done far "worse" things than this and not been suspended. I'm an oldie, I remember the Mace swinging and the flouncing over Westland.
Even Thatcher didn't take the whip off him. Desperate toadie wankers.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/05/2019 19:52

Heseltine used to be the darling of the Tory conference and Tory members
He was always pro-European - remember Westland - and also on the liberal wing

He first stood in a GE party in 1959 ..... for the National Liberal party
That was back when there was still the Conservative and National Liberal Party, shortly before they become just the Conservative party

BigChocFrenzy · 20/05/2019 19:56

On 26th / 27th May, at least some pollsters should be very embarassed

In the EP predictions - possibly because of different sampling & weighing of BREX:

  • LAB: YouGov is an outlier in consistently having them about 24-25%, whereas the other pollsters (at least Comres, Hanbury & Survation ) have them 15-16%

  • BREX: YouGov & Opinium have them 9% higher than Comres & BMG

woman19 · 20/05/2019 19:57

They won't find anything
European Parliament might though. Wink
bylinetimes.com/2019/05/14/brexit-party-donations-an-open-invitation-to-launder-money/

Heseltine is head and shoulders above many of them BCF and Peregrina I think. Interesting geezer. He could see what was being done to the north, especially Liverpool, and tried at least to redress economic injustices decades ago. If they had listened maybe the worst of this wouldn't have happened.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/05/2019 20:01

A younger Heseltine now would be very unpopular in the Tory party - as we can see, the original has fallen so far from grace.

The membership has moved far to the right of where it was in the 1960s - 1980s

tobee · 20/05/2019 20:09

Heseltine having been one time desperate to be Tory leader but getting people's backs up and never being elected. Please let Boris follow him with this.

Incidentally, when I did politics o level, we got to visit the Houses of Parliament to look round. At the end of the tour we are asked if we wanted to go home or stay to watch in the public gallery. Everyone except me the swotty nerd said "it'll be too boring". Turned out if we'd stayed we'd have witnessed Heseltine rushing in caught with his trousers down, to announce that American Cruise missiles had arrived at Greenham Common. Big hoohah at the time that this was an example of the US treating us as their stooges. Would have been a right laugh to have witnessed.

Iambuffy · 20/05/2019 20:19

Below link on Ford job cuts

1tisILeClerc · 20/05/2019 20:25

Since many countries, if not all are reporting 'outside influence' on elections, I would suspect there will be a lot of 'behind the scenes' collaboration by internet security forces so as long as they haven't got the likes of Grayling 'on the case' I would anticipate an interesting pattern to be emerging. Just because you can zip about withing Europe thanks to Schengen, it doesn't mean the authorities don't know where people are.

Violetparis · 20/05/2019 20:27

YouGov do appear to be the outlier in polling but you have it the wrong way round, it is YouGov who have Labour on the lowest percentages of 15-16 %. The other polling companies have them higher 20-24%. Not sure which ones to believe.

woman19 · 20/05/2019 20:30

Since many countries, if not all are reporting 'outside influence' on elections
Nick Robinson to Tice: Do you take foreign donations? Tice: As I understand it, that's not illegal

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