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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

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RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 23:40

Remember it covers stuff like right to privacy and a private life. In an authoritarian social media led world, you don't want people to have that kind of privacy if you are a big tech firm.

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BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 23:42

red the HRA safeguards many people,
but imo it does little in practice for workers, other than wrt discrimination - which isn't particularly profitable anyway

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 23:44

Looking at the US and at Hungary, the right doesn't need laws to control the media - money does that

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 23:54

Has the HRA prevented UC, or people dying when their benefits are stopped ?

Hungary and Poland belong to the EHRC - hasn't stopped them from packing the courts with their judges,
putting their people in key places in govt agencies,
govt hate campaigns against minorities and refugees.

The only real constraint appears to be the other EU countries threatening to suspend them and cut off benefits.

I value the EHRC highly, but it only seems to help much if a country gives a damn

I remember how the UK used to drag out cases for umpteen years at the ECHR
Hell, the USSR was a signatory and everyone pretty much gave up cases against them, so we know that a ruthless dictatorship need not be constrained if it refuses to be

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2019 23:58

What I'm getting at, is that the HRA and ECHR won't protect us against a regime like that in the US or Hungary
and realistically that's about what we'd get if the far right took over

phpolly · 18/05/2019 00:14

.

tobee · 18/05/2019 01:41

What will happen with Northern Ireland if Johnson is prime minister?

WorriedMutha · 18/05/2019 02:26

I am seriously thinking that the theme of the next thread should be the escape route. Move to Scotland and vote indy+EU, Ireland, mainland Europe? When to sell your house, convert your currency? There isn't a day goes by that we don't talk about this in our house.

Catslovepies · 18/05/2019 03:32

.

nuttynutjob · 18/05/2019 05:19

This is depressing and I've just watched Years and Years.

Sending a Patronus (cat) to ward off these Dementors.

Teddybear45 · 18/05/2019 05:31

The Tories could vote Boris in but if they do, they have definitely lost the next general election.

PigletJohn · 18/05/2019 06:32

I see some Tory minister in the news today advising his mates that they mustn't have a General Election until after a Brexit is achieved.

Because if the nation's citizens were allowed it, they would reject Brexit and also the Tories.

What an admission of failure!

lonelyplanetmum · 18/05/2019 06:38

It may be overly optimistic... but...

  1. Don't underestimate the impact of the private criminal prosecution against Boris. It seems to have some chances of success? Obviously he is innocent until proven guilty. However he has retained a prestigious legal team to defend him. I think it was reported that initially he started out refusing to respond to the pre claim correspondence. He is therefore now taking it seriously.

The next hearing is in public on the day of the EU election.

  1. How much ERG support does Boris have? Don't egos intervene? Also the ERG are sinisterly quiet at the mo.

Anyway if Boris defeats the case it will be the most irritating vindication along the lines of see I'm the one to bring back honesty into politics.

costacoffeecup · 18/05/2019 06:51

@prettybird 'autocarrot' 😀 really made me laugh.

Nothing else to say, it's too depressing for words really.

NoWordForFluffy · 18/05/2019 08:24

@PigletJohn, it’s scary to think that they know that they no longer have a Brexit mandate but are trying to force it through anyway. What has politics become?!

MissMalice · 18/05/2019 08:31

Pmk

bellinisurge · 18/05/2019 08:43

Unlike Trump, Boris is actually an intelligent thoughtful (as in good at thinking ) person. Like JRM his schtick is to be a clever posh boy because people trust clever posh boys (apparently). It's why Cameron got the Tory leadership. But he also knows, because of Trump, that enough people respond well to populist shit. Cameron couldn't really get carry it off. Boris and JRM can. If a posh clever boy says the same as me (only with posh words) it must be true.
My dd in her ordinary little Northern comp learned about hubris last week. Boris and JRM know about it too. They have the money to cushion them when the inevitable happens and their little experiment with people's lives backfires and turns to shit.
Fucking twats.

TokyoSushi · 18/05/2019 08:44

PMK. So here we are, just when we think we've finally reached the depths of disaster, we dig a bit more and worse it gets.

I expect were going to get through many, many more of these threads in the next few weeks, it feels very 'calm before massive storm' at the moment.

Fantastic work by Red et al. as always

Dontlickthetrolley · 18/05/2019 08:50

PMK - I'm kicking myself, am going to Spain next weekend and was only saying on Wednesday that the £/€ seems to be doing ok, compared to when I went to Paris in November, yesterday's news has meant it's got a lot worse and I still have t bought my € Sad

RedToothBrush · 18/05/2019 08:55

and I've just watched Years and Years.

I've seen the trailers for that and thought it looks amazing and really want to watch it, but everytime I switch on iplayer I can't bring myself to watch it. I don't think I have the heads pace for futuristic stuff with a foot in reality and so close to home, particularly if there any tinge of dystopia right now.

The last couple of weeks of news haven't been great, but I don't think May leaving in June makes a great deal of difference to the scheme of things. The same eventual outcome has been the same for a while. I think in some ways it's become like trying to remove a plaster; some times it's just better to rip it off quickly. All the signs are leading to No Deal and a hard right Tory leader. I'm struggling to think of or see an alternative. The lack of vision and integrity for their own values by the left and centre is the problem. The refusal to admit their own failings and flaws.

I don't know. Its pretty damn grim.

Maybe the leadership contest will throw a curveball or two but I'd be surprised. The Tory party are desperate and clinging to anything which they think will maintain sufficient popularity and relevance because they have become bankrupt in appeal to a younger generation. Quite why they think Johnson is the solution to that, I don't know!!

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LonelyTiredandLow · 18/05/2019 08:59

Boris now sporting a super short haircut I see Hmm which Bannon no doubt approves. I can't seriously believe the public would vote for him in a GE. I agree Gove is more logical choice but he is perhaps too logical and hardworking for the party donors who presumably want a puppet Sad.

I've sent a few messages out saying that I'm happy to give people lifts to polling booths around my town on Thursday. Told friends to pass it on to anyone who may be struggling.

WorriedMutha · 18/05/2019 09:05

Iain Dale on Newsnight said Johnson would not thrive best in a long leadership campaign. Cameron's auto biography out mid September and he will be savaging Johnson and Gove et al. Curveball perhaps.

mathanxiety · 18/05/2019 09:11

PMK,,

HappydaysArehere · 18/05/2019 09:12

If the Tory grass roots are backing that incompetent ,self seeking clown then they are misjudging his popularity with the general public. I have yet to meet anyone who thinks he would be anything but a disaster.

IrenetheQuaint · 18/05/2019 09:12
Sad