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Brexit

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise

979 replies

RedToothBrush · 17/05/2019 22:31

In the beginning there was this thread:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2670552-Has-Boris-been-outmanoeuvred?pg=1

And it said:
If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

And

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

So what of where we stand and the poison chalice of the Tory Leadership and a deal.

According to a poll of Tory Members, Johnson is by far their runaway favourite to become next leader. And he's given a 61% competence score - higher than any other candidate.

With Raab as their second favourite.

May has successfully managed to make such a mess of how she handled the 2016 Tory Party Conference and everything that subsequently stemmed from that, that the poison chalice of leadership will be passed and sooner than many would have wanted.

However blame for what follows can be laid at her feet. At the Labour Party’s feet for ending talks that were never going anyway. At the EU. And No Deal has been detoxified by May's handling amongst many supporters of Brexit. Johnson and Raab will therefore have no interest in striking a deal with the EU and instead set sail for exit on 31st Oct and will brazen it out.

What is scary is that waiting in the wings is Farage, who without winning a single seat in the HoC has more power than any MP. They are all so afraid of him. Thus we face a very hard push to the right, with the left and centre in disarray and disorganisation.

The Human Rights Act and Devolution settlements will be top of the list to go.

And we will face draconian ways to control the population as the lazy fools will want no accountability to the press or the courts.

How long before appointed or elected judges?

Was Boris outmanoeuvred?

By the look of it, absolutely not. He just had to wait a few years. But his path and power will not be lead by him... But by those who pull his strings.

It looks bleak. Very bleak.

Many may rue the day they didn't vote for May's deal yet...

... And fear of this nightmare vision of the future is the only card May has left in her hand to play. Will anyone realise this?

Probably not, because they will all still think Johnson's leadership bid will be blocked by moderates. The trouble is he's polling well and the cowards are too busy looking over their shoulders at the turquoise arrows.

Pray for a shock result next week which brings fewer Brexit Party seats than are anticipated. The trouble is they have the momentum right now and Remainers don't know their arses from their elbows much less be passion and inspiring to the young and to women.

We are fucked.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 20/05/2019 22:40

The EP elections are likely to worsen the chances of getting an extension, as it sinks in just how much the pandering to this UK dithering buggers up the EP

Not just Farage at all

  • main thing is all those "extra" MEPs from other countries who can't take their seats until Brexit, whereas the UK MEPs can influence EU top jobs and key votes

Mujtaba Rahman@Mij_Europe

#EP2019

-...EU officials reeling, as UK participation in Euro polls will:-

1) massively complicate discussions over top EU jobs as presence of UK MEPs hurts EPP but benefits S&D & Liberals;

2) make coalition building harder between 3 groups

BigChocFrenzy · 20/05/2019 22:46

The Tories have forgotten their pro-EU voters. And they’ll pay for it

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/middle-class-angst-threat-tory-party-brexit-conservatism

Given the ageing profile of the Tory membership and its attachment to hard Brexitt^, the party will move even further to the right.

Put another way,
it will fix its collective sights on the kind of old, zealous, implacably parochial people who have been turning up to all those Farage rallies,
while all the demographics continue to move in the opposite direction.

PigletJohn · 20/05/2019 22:51

As the population moves implacably to pro-EU, it will be tiresome and expensive to rejoin the EU in a few years, after all this pointless kerfuffle, but it looks like that is what will happen.

woman19 · 20/05/2019 22:56

@tnewtondunn

  • Secret legal advice drawn up for Boris by allies reveals blocking him from the final two run off breaches Conservatives' constitution
  • ABB (Anyone But Boris) group now claims to have 80-100 Tory MP members ready to vote for anyone else as a blocking slate
AutumnCrow · 20/05/2019 23:05

I think this is where quiet Phil Hammond comes into play.

tobee · 20/05/2019 23:49

So photos of Nigel Farage covered in milkshake on nearly all the front pages of tomorrow's nationals! More publicity.....

DGRossetti · 20/05/2019 23:52

Call me a cynic, but thinking about it I wouldn't put it past Farage to have set it up for the publicity.

Bob Roberts ?

DGRossetti · 21/05/2019 00:06

How will wealthy Brexiteers profit from Brexit? The surprising truth about the world's most secretive tax network for the wealthy.

HazardGhost · 21/05/2019 00:54

Am i the only one who was meh over the milkshake and thought Farage's reaction on twitter was a bit over the top? (Not like anyone threatened to rape him.) The mirror reported it was over a fiver to buy and was banana and salted caramel so it was fancy. Unless as rightly pointed out someone has an allergy it's just a bit sticky and no where near as degrading as a PIP assessment.

Anyway, its always bugged me how does the likes of posh boi farage and co get so much working class support but I think this study gives clues into that....

www.independent.co.uk/news/science/posh-people-think-theyre-better-university-of-virginia-social-inequality-a8921876.html

Posh people think highly of themselves and are overconfident and this misleads others into believing they are competent. Working class people like to keep themselves humble, down play skills and place importance in knowing your place.

Made for interesting and a bit sad reading.

woman19 · 21/05/2019 06:53

Bob Roberts
Man of the Paypal is no Teddy Roosevelt, that's for sure. Most people would remove their milky jacket and carry on, wonder why he didn't.

Pre the milk beverage incident, he has a nice filmed chat ( he asks them if they are going shopping) with 2 stepford wives with cut glass accents allegedly voting for his party; absolutely normal in Newcastle town centre. Hmm . I fully expect a strange fake vicar to bless him on his next walkabout.

He must use the same production team as bbc qt.

Bob Roberts indeed.

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise
BigChocFrenzy · 21/05/2019 07:15

Labour 3rd in Wales for EP:

Britain Electss@britainelects*

Welsh European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 36% (+26)
PC: 19% (+4)
LAB: 15% (-15)

LDEM: 10% (+4)
GRN: 8% (+5)
CON: 7% (-9)
UKIP: 2% (-9)
CHUK: 2% (-6)

LonelyTiredandLow · 21/05/2019 07:42

Hazards the article didn't mention whether the richer people were actually better at the tests. IME it's a 50/50 bag with posh people - if you didn't perform well in school you certainly knew about it and I know people who had bullying from teachers who were supposed to be pastoral care givers. The result is a posh but terribly self derogatory nice bumbling posh person. I think we all know one of those. Sadly the public school education system does get results and the reinforcement of always being better at tests (when you see the results) certainly doesn't help with attitude. You can see it on Child Genius, which is across all walks of life but clearly trending towards MC. A lot of the time it actually more of a "give it a go!" attitude because they are taught to answer every question and not give up opportunities. Rather than dragging "posh people" down, these confidence boosters need to become societal norms, learned behaviour (as parents we should encourage) and some cultures have a tendency to defer to white people. Being aware is the first step. Jeremy Kyle was a class market programme that managed to simultaneously drag poor people into the limelight (for money) show everyone how "disgusting" they and their partner had become (read depressed/broke/desperate) and serve as a reminder to others in their situation how bad society thinks they are whilst being shouted at by a MC white presenter. It halted any idea of progression for a large chunk of people.

boatyardblues · 21/05/2019 08:18

Urgh. Personally addressed turquoise party election letter arrived yesterday. My kitchen table needs a good wipe down. I feel sullied.

Peregrina · 21/05/2019 08:22

Posh people think highly of themselves and are overconfident and this misleads others into believing they are competent.

We saw that in spades with Cameron, who was an absolute lightweight.

HazardGhost · 21/05/2019 09:21

lonelytired Giving it a go is a great mindset to promote - no harm in trying! I found the authenticity aspect of the study interesting - How do we culturally promote authenticity and humility to posh people?

It boggled my mind a bit, IRL I'm often called authentic/salt of the earth and I can't really get my head around the notion of not being authentic...doesn't that mean you feel a bit shite about yourself because your not being genuine?

Peregrina YES!!! This might turn into my new thing to look out for is this an overconfident posh person or are they actually competent?

LonelyTiredandLow · 21/05/2019 09:47

I think it's the idea of the wisdom of ignorance.
So rich people shouldn't be in charge of welfare budgets.
People who vote UKIP shouldn't be in charge of refugee care (without supervision and actually this could be a very interesting social development program Hmm but I digress)
It's about having an awareness of your own faults and being able to take on board constructive criticism - not having to be the best at everything. I am not convinced this is solely an upper class/posh trait but because these people do tend to go into politics we see it play out on a larger stage and with huge consequences.

LonelyTiredandLow · 21/05/2019 09:52

The trouble is we get back to who is attracted to politics and why. It's not a very pretty answer a lot of the time.

LonelyTiredandLow · 21/05/2019 10:00

I can't really get my head around the notion of not being authentic...doesn't that mean you feel a bit shite about yourself because your not being genuine?
I know a lady who instagrams herself at least 3 times a day. She will spend hours thinking of an outfit/venue/body-part (yes, she did a few horrific crotch shots over last half term Shock that were meant to be 'arty'). In these shots she comes across as highly confident, no bullshit, vegan, pure, angelic kids - yada yada. In reality her home is pretty grim, her clothes crumpled in heaps with cat wee/poo on them as she doesn't let the cats out, kids eat crisps instead of dinner and are on their tablets straight after school for the whole evening. She doesn't have MH needs and works in a school. Partner pulls his hair out trying to cook and clean but even she admitted to me once she is a 'complete slob'. It's a modern day phenomenon, but yes a lot of people would rather project an image than actually feel it. I agree it is soul destroying and I have tried many times to understand how this person I know doesn't realise that once you know her you can see straight through it. I think perhaps as long as she is fooling most of the people some of the time she feels like she is "winning". Image means a lot to her.

LonelyTiredandLow · 21/05/2019 10:08

Sorry, that probably came across as bitchy - was trying to give an example of someone more 'relatable' and I think we all know someone lost to Instagram (cringe, yes I have an account too but like to think I'm an infrequent user!) and there is a definite surge in women pouting/in swimsuits voluntarily on there seemingly as part of a lifestyle movement. It makes me sad when the focus seems to be on their bodies rather than fun, but maybe that's just me being bitter Grin

LonelyTiredandLow · 21/05/2019 10:25

I see the Guardian has a piece saying that the electoral commission have been trying to get hold of the BP who have been brushing them off. Now with 48 hrs to go they are finally letting them in. Suspect they will be fined another 60k and it will be too late to do anything worthwhile. What we need are stronger powers to deal with obstruction in these cases and an ability to 'pause' a party (not allow votes for them) if enough evidence is found that they are likely to be flouting the rules in the run up to an election/referendum. That would be the only way to make people like Farage and Banks take the rules seriously.

Iambuffy · 21/05/2019 10:26

Ugh
BP leaflet addressed to dh
In bin and hands washed.
Ugh

bookbook · 21/05/2019 10:33

we have now had , in order of receiving through the post
BP / Greens/Yorkshire Party /UKIP/English Democrats
No Labour or LibDem as yet ...
am in the Yorks & Humber region

TheABC · 21/05/2019 10:40

I have just finished shouting at the Zoe Williams opinion piece in the Guardian. Apparently we need to take it on faith and vote Labour. FFS. I am NOT endorsing JC whilst he backs Brexit.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/21/remainers-faith-vote-labour-corbyn-brexit

DGRossetti · 21/05/2019 10:41

{"Don't know" != "None of the bastards"}

Westminstenders: Has Boris been outmanoeuvred? Reprise