Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

I'm tempted to stay up for Hoey. Would be a tiny consolation.

I'm voting Labour as the candidate (the sitting MP) is really excellent, but I'd be overjoyed if bloody Kate Hoey got the chop.

Current BettingData

CONs:
351-375: 7/4
376-400: 13/5
326 - 350 seats: 10/3
401-425: 15/2
301 - 325 seats: 8
300 seats and Under: 9
426-450: 28
451 seats and Over: 40

LAB:
176 – 200: 9/5
201 – 225: 9/4
226 – 250: 7/2
251 and over: 4
151 – 175: 8
126 – 150: 25

There is a book on the new LD leader. Top three options are:
Jo Swinson: 11/4
Norman Lamb: 4
Vince Cable: 8

I haven't found one for other parties...

@technicallyron
Twas the night before the election
and all through the constituencies
no one could rest because this is fucking terrifying
people are idiots

I have just bought a litre of gin. That's all you need to know about my mood right now.

Hoey O'clock is 3:30am

election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_name.php
Here is an A - Z list of Estimated Declaration Times for each Constituency

election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_time.php
Here is a list of Estimated Declaration Times for each Constituency by time

The action doesn’t really start going until about 2.00am, with lots of key results checking between then and 4.30am. I would have thought we would start to get an idea of how good/bad it is for each party around then. So once the Exit Poll comes out at 10pm, if you want to get a nap, that’s the time to do it and get up after a short kip.

Jennifer Williams‏*@JenWilliamsMEN*
Wilbraham Road, Manchester

I was up that way last week. People really do have Pro-Galloway placards out.

Just a reminder that tomorrow is ALSO Comey testimony day.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/comey-testimony-read-in-full-trump-russia-opening-remarks-latest-text-a7778111.html
James Comey's testimony: Read his opening statement on Trump and Russia in full

A lot of the 48% must have changed their minds

It's not that. But if you live in a Lab/Tory constituency Lib Dem is not an option. And even a Lab/Lib one might still mean Libs have no real chance.

I am voting Lib Dem (tactically) and don't want a 2nd referendum. But I'm still most definitely convinced Brexit is the most stupid thing this country has ever done.

YouGov haven't polled me for two days.

Here is Electoral Calculus's prediction which seems in line with others. But the prediction for my constituency seems bizarre with its Labour predictions. I believe it applies national data and trends to individual seats.

From The Poke:

My constituency set to declare at 1am - I won't get home until 11pm, it's going to be a long and painful night. Richmond Park (I hope to see Zac Goldsmith trounced for the third time in just over a year) is at 4am.

Electoral Calculas is based on demographics from the 2011 census.

This means constituencies that have seen a lot of change might not be so accurate.

I'm most impressed by the Galloway poster - "misogynist" is pretty erudite compared to the usual "shite / twat" one expects in political discourse

I wish we had electronic voting, then we could be tucked up in bed by midnight

This graphic says a lot.

There are so many words for Galloway. BCF and gorgeous ain't one of them either.

Here is a list of Estimated Declaration Times for each Constituency by time

We are expecting it to be between 3 - 4 am for Oxford West and Abingdon. It was 6 ish at the last election, because we also had district council elections and all the verifications were done first, so the start of the count was delayed. I happen to vote at the polling station nearest to where the count is being held, and know that it's less than 5 minutes walk away so the first box should arrive within minutes. Others will take a good deal longer.

We are also counting for Henley constituency. Henley itself is about half an hour's drive away, but some parts border Oxford City, but even so, I can't see their boxes beginning to arrive until 10.30 at the earliest and an hour or so later for a significant number, so that time might be more realistic.

On Friday, YouGov will either be a national laughing stock, or the country's smuggest bastards.

They haven't succumbed to "herding" instincts, so they certainly have courage, standing by their model

Jim Pickard‏*@PickardJE*

Final Panelbase GB-wide election poll, sample size 3,018.

CON 44 (NC)
LAB 36 (NC)
LD 7 (NC)
UKIP 5 (NC)
GRN 2 (-1)

Martin Boon‏**@martinboon** 1h
Shortly, there will be a loud KABOOM.

Martin Boon‏**@martinboon** 17m
Rumours flying. KABOOM 2.

(He's from ICM and referring to the final yougov poll, I think)

Irene You have no sense of drama
I'm nearly 61 and I'm not staying up either ! I'll have an early night and an early Friday catch-up before gym.

Seriously though, I would totally oppose electronic voting, because it might well be hackable, especially with "dark money" lurking in the background
At least paper votes are counted in public
< let's not start discussing mass postal votes filled out by the local boss, missing ballots etc >

iirc, the Tories were claiming a couple of weeks ago that they expected there would be one poll in the final week that put them behind.

If MartinBoon is hinting to expect that very poll ..... I bet all the loos at YouGov HQ will be permanently occupied from now until late Friday

Maybe there will be a public "oops, we forgot to carry 1 and multiply by 1.2" .... um, it's not really a hung parliament

BCF it smells like a 1987 result to me.

www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40184641

If there ever was any doubt about the links between Saudi Arabia and ISIS, this incident on top of the isolation of Qatar (a friend of Iran) should put them to bed. Same goes for doubts about how reckless and dangerous Donald Trump is.