Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

[RedToothBrush]

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

Timeline of what to watch out for tomorrow night:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/june-2017-whats-worth-staying-election-night

TheElements The apricot labradoodle did make it to national news and so did I

Kaija Yes telling , and ferrying people to polling stations. I can look my DDs in the face and say I did something. Amazing a 73 year old appeals to twenty somethings as much as over 60s. My favourite picture that made national news today

I did have some fleeting moments of hope a few days ago but it's pretty much evaporated. I am totally expecting the worst now. Fuck, it's depressing. I feel guilty looking at my children and what they are going to be subjected to. I genuinely feel bad for having them
My first child was born in 2000 and the world just seemed a different place then.

Election Data‏*@election*_data
The numbers are one thing but what's the narrative? Important to put the election in context. Last two years have been book-ended by two general elections but in between we have had two rounds of local elections, Welsh and Scottish Assembly elections, two Prime Ministers, the EU referendum, parliamentary by-elections, two Labour leadership elections, Mayoral elections for city-regions and hundreds of local by-elections. There are clear and continuing patterns for the parties in these elections. In short, Labour have continued to attract former Lib Dems and Greens. They've grown their position amongst younger voters and voters within cities/major urban areas. Their position with ethnic minorities remains good. At the same time they have continued to lose lower to middle-income, middle-aged families and working households. This is not just true of the general public but also the membership of the party. Over two-thirds of the membership joined after 2015. Half of those new members have voted for the Lib Dems or Greens in the past. Remarkably, when I asked them, 5% of the members said they'd be voting for the Lib Dems at the next election. The problem the party has is that it is retaining around 75% of its 2015 vote. And it was retaining around 80% of its 2010 vote in 2015. So at present it's retaining 75% of 80% from 2010. What has replaced those votes? I would argue the party has gained the kind of voters which are overweighted in polling: younger voters, non-voters, etc. Little surprise to me that the Labour number is POSSIBLY being overestimated in polling. I believe that it's partly the same thing again - it's just that those voters aren't Lib Dems any more - they've moved into Labours column

lovelyron Farron and Cable look nice, friendly and not robotic.

Their is dedfjnitely an air of despondency on this house.

(disabled with disabled dd, had the brown envelope of doom drop not long ago. The idea of going through it again is more than I can think about)

Place marking for the KABOOM, be aside even though I know it's crap, it'll make me feel better, for just a few moments anyway.

Simon Munzert‏*@simonsaysnothin*

We forecast a turnout rate of 59.9% [95% PI: 51.4–68.5%]. This would almost be an all-time low. #GE2017

(Last time was 68%)

Sorry 2015 was 66.1%

Lowest ever: 2001 when it was 59.4%

TNS Poll CON 43% LAB 38% LDEM 7% UKIP 4% GRNS 2%

Their is dedfjnitely an air of despondency on this house
Have another cheery international orchid then, this is called common, and also grows in the local Chiltern hills.
Won't fix the election, but hopefully will still be growing long after TM's and tory scoundrels' demise.

www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
Exit poll explainer.
I think they are aiming to be within 20 seats of the result.

Yup, I'm feeling similarly despondent (and whoever said upthread it's like 1987, my husband keeps muttering that). I'm going for small victories at this point:

YouGov has said that my constituency is leaning towards Labour and I would be delighted to see our turncoat Tory MP kicked out.
Similarly, bye-bye Ms Hoey
Zac Goldsmith can go home and lick his money.
I'd love to see some LDs regain their 2015 seats (and I really hope Nick Clegg holds Sheffield Hallam).
I'm too invested in other Westminstenders' results for my own good - I'll be keeping a close eye on Peregrina's and Bolshy's constituencies.

I can't bloody believe Dennis Skinner might lose his seat .

If you want something cute, fluffy and newsworthy and definitely not election related

I give you this
Dogs in Bags on the New York Subway

Final Kantar poll Con 43 labour 38 Libdem 7 UKIP4

How big a factor will the bad weather be in turnout? Apparently it doesn't have much of an impact but I can't remember a wet and windy one.

We have a tradition of always walking to the polling station and I don't ever remember carrying an umbrella. In fact I associate Election Day with sunshine (1997 certainly was),

Oooo that is lovely woman12345

Excellent RTB!

Meanwhile, our shopping list (chalkboard on kitchen wall) for tomorrow's supermarket shop is:

• WINE
• CHOCOLATE

Jake‏*@JustJokeyJake*
@arobertwebb a year ago, you told us what it would be for brexit but what would the characters of Peep Show vote in tomorrow's election?

Robert Webb‏**@arobertwebb**

Mark: no show or LibDem, Sophie: Labour, Johnson: Women's Equality Party, Jez: told pollsters he was Labour but won't bother to vote.

This could be a whole thread of its own. What would fictional characters vote?

I am preparing myself for the worst with watching episode 2 of The Handmaid's Tale.

Cute, fluffy and not election-related - the DC decided ElementsCat needed some company. She is not amused.

5 more years of this shit, this election is only the second time Im voting with hope in my heart, waiting on my own brown envelope to drop, fear and hope always a good combination

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/disabled-woman-a-recluse-in-her-own-home-after-dwp-cut-benefits-despite-worsening-condition-a7775126.html

Dogs in bags are definitely sweet and funny Wish it would stand for election here. At the moment nothing allowable would remove the tory turd incumbent in this constituency.

Gorgeous elements

YouGov/Times Final Poll T-8mins