Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westministenders: The Election Car Crash

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/06/2017 15:42

I was thinking about how I could sum up the general election campaign and well. This said it all.

Westministenders: The Election Car Crash
OP posts:
Thread gallery
30
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 18:35

Lurking, Farron has advocated tactical voting today to keep the Tories out. You are being a good little LD.

If that helps you feel better.

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 18:36

Polls expected this evening:
Kantar
ComRes
YouGov
Survation
Panelbase
Survation
Ipsos MORI

OP posts:
LurkingHusband · 07/06/2017 18:41

Lurking, Farron has advocated tactical voting today to keep the Tories out. You are being a good little LD.

Not enough to actually pay to be a member though ...

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/06/2017 18:44

I swear YouGov are trolling, I desperately want them to be right but still feel like Im getting trolled

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 18:45

Election Data‏*@election*_data
My projection for tomorrow is:
Con 387
Lab 186
SNP 51
LD 4

Plaid 3
Greens 1
Conservative majority of 124
logs off Twitter

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 18:46

TSE‏*@TSEofPB*

You know after tomorrow, we might not see another opinion poll for a few years..

OP posts:
Kaija · 07/06/2017 18:47

Ron, you must be near me - Farron was in my neck of the woods this afternoon. Are you knocking on doors tomorrow?

LurkingHusband · 07/06/2017 18:49

I swear YouGov are trolling

If so, it will be studied as the longest corporate suicide in history, given how m,any opportunities they have had to correct themselves.

It's worth noting that YouGov do have access to at least 15 years worth of subscriber data (including mine) across every survey they have ever done (if they so choose).

I wonder if they are cutting up specific polling data with other non-political polls and getting something that way. (Although from my professional research, I'd say "Big Data ? Big Bollocks more like")

Who knows. Maybe cross referencing todays poll with a 2007 poll on what the nations favourite colour Smartie was is a gold mine ????

Kaija · 07/06/2017 18:50

Really interesting/depressing/worrying article here on how the election is being won (near invisibly), not from a political commentator but from Marketing Week. I don't know how democracy can keep up with this.

https://www.marketingweek.com/2017/06/05/mark-ritson-%E2%80%8Bhow-win-election/?cmpid=em~newsletter~breakingnews~n~n&utmmmedium=em&utmsource=newsletter&utmmcampaign=breaking_news&eid=3507130&sid=MW0001

LurkingHusband · 07/06/2017 18:56

Just had an unsolicited email on behalf of the local Tory MP from a gmail account.

Well actually it was for someone else. I was in the BCC field.

As I replied to them, ICO duly informed.

TheElementsSong · 07/06/2017 19:04

I'm feeling a sense of bleak hopelessness about this election. Frankly, I wish YouGov would bugger off with their stupid polls giving false hope.

(I've been getting the YouGov voter intention one quite regularly, despite having said I was 100% decided every time, I think because I live in a marginal constituency).

Motheroffourdragons · 07/06/2017 19:07

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

citroenpresse · 07/06/2017 19:18

I'm raising my 'expectation' to a majority of 120. Bleak hopelessness from afar.

Badders123 · 07/06/2017 19:21

I'm on antibiotics so I can't even drink myself into oblivion
😣

HashiAsLarry · 07/06/2017 19:26

I put my bet on. If I win, I'll give the money to charity. I'd rather lose though.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 19:27

New @ComRes poll
Con 44 (-3) Lab 34 (-1) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 5 (+1) Greens 2 (+1)

10 points difference.
(12 points apparently relates to 60 maj, though that depends on distribution. Stacked votes in Labour seats with cons more evenly distributed could equal more.)

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 19:30

Election Forecast (Chris Hanretty)
#GE2017 penultimate update:
Cons 323-413
Lab 159-245
LDems 2-13
SNP 42-56
Probability of hung parliament: 3%

Final prediction tomorrow morning

OP posts:
Motheroffourdragons · 07/06/2017 19:31

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 19:32

Mid points for Election forecast
Con- 377
Lab -199
LD - 7
SNP - 50
Plaid - 2
Greens - 1

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 19:38

Guido Fawkes @ GuidoFawkes
10% lead translates to 50 to 100 seat majority...

OP posts:
TheElementsSong · 07/06/2017 19:38

Maybe we should just fill this thread with pictures of nice things. Raindrops, roses, whiskers on kittens and so forth. Something nice to look at, while rocking quietly in a corner.

prettybird · 07/06/2017 19:47

Remember who owns YouGov and who he supports Hmm

These forecasts, together with the strong and stable illusion message parodied parroted repeated ad nauseum by May and her acolytes, especially after the terror attacks, will galvanise those Tories who really weren't keen on her to go out and vote after all. Sad

Although as far as YouGov is concerned, it's a delicate balancing act with their reputation - unless they already have an excuse about it being "an experimental process that has demonstrated its shortcomings" lined up Hmm

RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 19:48

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tim-farron-labour-votes-seats-lib-dems-tories
Farron pleads for Labour votes in seats where Lib Dems could beat Tories

Remain-voting seat of St Albans, held by Conservative leave campaigner, is a top target – with data putting Lib Dems behind by just three points

And

The canvassing data from the final week of the campaign puts the two parties neck-and-neck, with the Lib Dems one point ahead, showing 35% voting for Hoey and 36% for the Lib Dem candidate, George Turner.

The pollsters are NOT saying this. How much do I want Hoey to get the Ed Balls Award? A teeny tiny bit...

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 07/06/2017 19:49

Mike Smithson @ MikeSmithsonPB
Full figures from Survey Money poll for the Sun
CON 42
LAB 38
LD 6
UKIP 4

OP posts:
woman12345 · 07/06/2017 19:49

Local 48% have done great on St Albans. Who'll stay up for Hoey? Grin

Swipe left for the next trending thread