Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

London and Eastern England are ahead, I believe.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview

@mrshoho

The government are aware of what is coming. Yes *@Reastie* the implications of so many staff isolating in our health and other essential services is quite horrendous in my mind. Back in 2020 we took the drastic action to lockdown and that did work in slowing transmission. How far will the government let this play out this time? The NHS has been telling us for months now that emergency services are at capacity. We know that ambulances are delayed even to the most serious incidents in some areas already. Once health staff numbers fall surely restrictions will be put in place. Either that or all hell breaks loose!

One issue is you might slow it but not decrease numbers

And what happens when you release.. same doubling as before?

But people with covid are actually ill quite often

People who are vaccinated / previous infection previously rarely had covid, so this is the main question. The assumption and belief is that the prior immunity will reduce symptoms, just as it does with other "common colds". If it doesn't, then there's no way I think that we could believe that same protection will also apply to the more vulnerable, and therefore the death rates would also be the same as the previous waves and things grinding to a halt are the least of our problems.

This aged well (5th Nov):
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-cases-probably-peaked

And what happens when you release.. same doubling as before?

Yes, anyone calling for a lockdown needs to say what happens after - wait 6 months for a new vaccine? Some other method of controlled infection, what? That's not to say a lockdown might not be required, but you still need a plan to get people infected. People might've reasonably thought zero covid was possible in 2020, we now know it's not.

Sone regions of the world have managed with significant lower death and infection rates and seem to be going for a control until vaccination and treatment is good enough that infection of everyone is no longer a concern

Let it rip is not the only option

R4 said that (Zoë app says that) runny nose if the top current covid symptom now….

Whitty said that in years to come pharmaceutical interventions - vaccines and antivirals - will ‘take the load’.

Is it really only taking off in London

No, they're just much further ahead, the timing of the delta waves may mediate infection in some areas, but Manchester certainly has omicron in it, and is probably only a few cycles behind London. The timing of the 18-30 wave was also similar I believe.

Bristol is presumably the South West peak, certainly more advanced there than others I think? Not many other areas look obvious.

@bordermidgebite

Sone regions of the world have managed with significant lower death and infection rates and seem to be going for a control until vaccination and treatment is good enough that infection of everyone is no longer a concern

Let it rip is not the only option

Quite.

Yes @MarshaBradyo you are right restrictions slow the number of cases that then rise as restrictions are lifted. But it reduces the immediate impact on the NHS so that it can continue to provide a safe service. There is not as far as I know an infinite bank of staff available, so what happens if levels of staff absence become so low that hospitals cannot treat emergencies?

Sone regions of the world have managed with significant lower death and infection rates and seem to be going for a control until vaccination and treatment is good enough that infection of everyone is no longer a concern

Which areas have done this with omicron? Remember it's considerably more infectious, measures that kept infections stable doubling time of 0, have led to a doubling time of under 2 days, it's a completely different ballgame. Lockdowns do still work.

@bordermidgebite

Sone regions of the world have managed with significant lower death and infection rates and seem to be going for a control until vaccination and treatment is good enough that infection of everyone is no longer a concern

Let it rip is not the only option

Where are you thinking? Because sometimes variables make a difference

Eg geographic / borders etc

Having said that I’m feeling a bit woozy over Aus opening borders soon as I believe they have Omicron (parents are there)

@mrshoho

Yes *@MarshaBradyo* you are right restrictions slow the number of cases that then rise as restrictions are lifted. But it reduces the immediate impact on the NHS so that it can continue to provide a safe service. There is not as far as I know an infinite bank of staff available, so what happens if levels of staff absence become so low that hospitals cannot treat emergencies?

This is where exemptions come in - so if they're positive but able to work they can. What the consequences of that might be I don't known. Perhaps people getting covid on top of whatever brought them into hospital in the first place, making them sicker and needing longer in hospital which would further exacerbate the problem.

Lockdowns aren't the only way to bring cases down. They have done previously in the UK, but without a lockdown cases won't go on rising forever - they'll burn out eventually. It may be that now that so many people are vaccinated we can allow that to happen

So hospitals should do away with infection control now in terms of covid? I don't see that ending very well somehow!

I suppose the bit I question is if you lockdown then release how soon after are you in the same position and how many lockdowns to get through population

I can only think tg boosters do something at least

Is it a maximum of 75% protection of symptomatic infection following 2 pfizer vaccines plus a booster? It will hopefully make a big difference but that's still a potentially very high number susceptible.

Not many other areas look obvious.
East of England and South East look to have sharp rises.

Central Scotland, particularly Glasgow, Edinburgh and North and South Lanarkshire are all showing signs of exponential growth.
We also have household contact isolation here.

twitter.com/docsuzy/status/1471521039771439105

Yes @vera99 I saw that… haven’t seen anyone factoring hospital-acquired infections at that new high rate either. Crikey.

This thread is good on what will perhaps happen when we hit testing capacity. Many on here will appreciate Oliver Johnson’s reply….

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1471597408949874695?s=21

I have no reason to doubt the veracity of her tweet she is a GP.

I’m not doubting her either!

This shows the extent of decoupling of hospitalisations and deaths from cases in London for omicron so far, possibly:

twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1471620263225737216?s=21

[quote JanglyBeads]I’m not doubting her either!

This shows the extent of decoupling of hospitalisations and deaths from cases in London for omicron so far, possibly:

twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1471620263225737216?s=21[/quote]
I think what that mostly shows is lag

In London admissions are starting to climb.

Up 38% week on week.

Deaths to follow after the lag.

With Delta it was slower than in previous waves because of the vaccines.

This time it may be slower because of vaccine boosters.

But the dynamic hasn't changed:

infections leads to hospitalisations and deaths after a lag.

There are often whole threads on here about how cases are going up but not deaths.

But deaths always do start going up.

More on hospitals:
mobile.twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1471537959421857816