Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Being discussed (somewhat aggressively ) on another thread but some interesting data in here:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveycharacteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19uk/16december2021

I don't think PCR capacity is that big a problem. When covid levels are as high as they are currently there's really very little point in using them to confirm LFTs as they're almost certain to be genuine positives. DSS has just tested positive on LFT and says he can't be bothered to do a PCR as it's obviously covid (all his friends have it, he has a sore throat etc) We've told him he needs to at least register it - I do think some people won't bother doing that though.

Reinfection frequency by week in Denmark:

Thanks for the link, Piggy.

I found this interesting:

people working in the education sector continued to be more likely to test positive in comparison with other working adults; this is likely related to the continuing higher infection levels among school-aged children compared with other age groups; we have seen this result consistently since mid-September

Is Denmark getting hit worse than the rest of Europe, or is it just providing better statistical analysis?

@borntobequiet

Thanks for the link, Piggy.

I found this interesting:

people working in the education sector continued to be more likely to test positive in comparison with other working adults; this is likely related to the continuing higher infection levels among school-aged children compared with other age groups; we have seen this result consistently since mid-September

Yes I did too, but couldn't see any specific numbers linked which was a shame.

Are we being forced into restrictions by bad science (as reported in the telegraph)?
mobile.twitter.com/PeterHorby/status/1471539702411010056

@Nellodee

Is Denmark getting hit worse than the rest of Europe, or is it just providing better statistical analysis?

I think they were hit early with Omicron. You don't need sequencing to spot huge rises in cases.

On another thread someone mentioned we’d all have had it by Boxing Day

I can’t find any articles, on BBC radio apparently

Did anyone hear it?

Hard to imagine numbers we’ll see on a daily basis

Is Denmark getting hit worse than the rest of Europe, or is it just providing better statistical analysis?

Denmark, London and Norway are the only places in Europe for sure with extensive Omicron infections I'd say.

I think some areas of Italy probably do, but still earlier than the other 3.

France is an interesting one, high infections, but looking still more like their delta wave as it's slowing which no-one omicron anywhere has - however that could be something different, they don't sequence much I don't think.

Anyone know anything about Illinois, that's supposedly not omicron but going up crazy fast? Some testing artifact or something?

@MarshaBradyo

On another thread someone mentioned we’d all have had it by Boxing Day

I can’t find any articles, on BBC radio apparently

Did anyone hear it?

Hard to imagine numbers we’ll see on a daily basis

33 million infections in 10 days?

Where would reinfections fit in with that?

@Nellodee

Is Denmark getting hit worse than the rest of Europe, or is it just providing better statistical analysis?

I think its both. Denmark and UK probably at similar points but both also do a lot better at testing / sequencing than the rest of Europe.

It is strange that the 2 countries hit most initially are the ones who do the most testing / sequencing.

On another thread someone mentioned we’d all have had it by Boxing Day

No. it's still barely outside London, London will slow, and it'll move into the other areas who will go fast, there will be waves in each city, and then waves in each town etc. It's likely to be a lot faster than Delta moving through the country over the last 4 months - which hadn't even finished of course - but it can't do the whole population in that time, the contacts are too constrained between areas.

I have no idea I’m trying to find an article but can’t see anything.

Are we going to be talking about… what exactly on this thread as confirmed case

I mean silly numbers

@MarshaBradyo

On another thread someone mentioned we’d all have had it by Boxing Day

I can’t find any articles, on BBC radio apparently

Did anyone hear it?

Hard to imagine numbers we’ll see on a daily basis

Here’s what I don’t get - if everyone has it in a very close time frame, surely the amount of people self isolating will mean a huge shortage in nhs staff/delivery drivers/supermarket workers etc on a scale we’ve not seen during the pandemic. Am I catastrophising that some things could grind to a halt in the very short term? Will they cancel the isolation policy for those well enough to work to get things moving or am I overthinking it? This hasn’t really been mentioned as a possibility anywhere, but if it’s likely to be a short but very sharp steep rise it’s going to affect a lot of people.

Ok, ignore me, I think @sirfredfredgeorge answered it where I was xposted

A certain similarity of direction?

@sirfredfredgeorge

On another thread someone mentioned we’d all have had it by Boxing Day

No. it's still barely outside London, London will slow, and it'll move into the other areas who will go fast, there will be waves in each city, and then waves in each town etc. It's likely to be a lot faster than Delta moving through the country over the last 4 months - which hadn't even finished of course - but it can't do the whole population in that time, the contacts are too constrained between areas.

I imagine Christmas will be a very effective way of spreading Omicron from London to the provinces.

Denmark sequences a higher proportion of covid tests than anyone else on the planet. They also have a good grasp of stats
www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics

@Reastie, no massive isolation is a genuine problem, as it doesn't matter that each wave is distinct, if there's no-one working in London, then it doesn't matter much if there's a load of delivery drivers in Manchester and like Christmas as JoanOgden says, moving them would also rapidly move the virus.

However, the indication from other countries is that recent Delta infection is protective as are boosters, and if you don't isolate contacts (which you shouldn't as it's going to be increasingly likely that they have already had it, and it achieves little anyway at the prevalence and infectivity levels, other people are still there unknowingly infectious) then I think we'd be okay.

It depends if the Gauteng proportions of susceptible follow through here or not, if they do, then we're okay - although Australia / New Zealand etc. have a bigger problem.

The Zoe app is saying currently 30.6% of covid cases in the SW have S gene drop out. I'm sure it was in the low twenties this morning.
covid.joinzoe.com/post/map-of-omicron-spread-in-england?_ga=2.140881458.122830437.1639673592-690026864.1639673592

Everyone having it by Christmas isn't plausible. A) even 2 day doubling only gets you from around 100,000 infections today to around 3.2 million per day in 10 days time (assuming a rich guess of 50,000 of today's cases are Omicron and 50% of infections are reported) which would be about 11 million in total. B) not everyone is vulnerable to it - boosters and past infections will mean many people don't ever catch it and c) people don't mix evenly - some are hiding away already so won't have had contact with anyone between now and Christmas and d) as just pointed out the epidemic will in fact play out in slightly different timescales in different areas (and possibly also in different age groups).

But I do think the numbers who catch it are heading to be much higher than we've ever seen before. Will that grind everything to a halt? Hard to say. This time last year contacts had to isolate too, and now they don't, so that should mean we can get to higher case rates with no worse a impact on the number of people isolating. But people with covid are actually ill quite often - so can't even do jobs from home. I think it's hard to see exactly how it'll pan out in terms of numbers or overall impact.

And they’re saying R is lowest in the South West aren’t they? Sorry read it somewhere today, can’t remember where

The government are aware of what is coming. Yes @Reastie the implications of so many staff isolating in our health and other essential services is quite horrendous in my mind. Back in 2020 we took the drastic action to lockdown and that did work in slowing transmission. How far will the government let this play out this time? The NHS has been telling us for months now that emergency services are at capacity. We know that ambulances are delayed even to the most serious incidents in some areas already. Once health staff numbers fall surely restrictions will be put in place. Either that or all hell breaks loose!

lonely, there are various attached files... not sure if they add more detail.

Is it really only taking off in London. I've been quite anxious about it here in Greater Manchester ( as unwisely I was with a large group of people indoors last Sunday and I really really don't want to be ill with Omicron but have now got a very slightly runny nose although negative lateral flows) so maybe it is much less likely that I will catch it than I thought?